摘要
随着经济社会的发展,城乡居民生活质量的提高,使一定区域有限土地供给与无限土地需求之间的矛盾愈加严重,导致经济社会发展与生态承载力之间的冲突更加突出。如何在生态承载力允许的范围内,使经济社会发展走上可持续发展的道路是世界各国以及各个地区尺度都在谋求解决的现实问题。
论文选取位于北京西北部、永定河上游的河北省怀来县进行基于生态承载力的县域土地优化研究,通过土地优化协调生态建设与经济发展的关系。其山地、盆地、黄土、沙丘、河流、水库等地貌类型多样,林地、耕地、园地、草地、荒地等生态植被类型复杂,工业化、城镇化进程在河北张家口区域较为先进,因此,研究其在全国有一定代表性,并具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。
论文采用地理信息技术、生态足迹法、多目标规划模型等方法,针对怀来县进行土地利用变化、生态承载力、适宜性、土地优化等方面的研究。
首先,论文对土地利用变化的特征,规律及原因进行研究。通过解译怀来县2000年、2005年和2010年的卫星遥感图像获得其土地利用变化数据,然后结合调查获取的其他信息,利用转移矩阵及统计分析方法研究各种土地利用类型的数量结构、空间分布、动态度(时间序列)、类型转换等变化情况及原因。结果显示：2000～2010年间各种类型土地面积一直处于变化过程中,同一类型的土地不同时期其变化不同,同一时期不同类型的土地其变化不同。变化速度由大到小的顺序是,未利用地>城乡建设用地>园地>水域>草地>耕地>林地。11年间综合土地利用动态度为1.26%,其中,2000年-2005年为1.91%,2005-2010年为0.87%。
其次,论文基于改进的生态足迹模型对生态承载力进行计算与分析。利用生态系统服务价值理论对传统生态足迹模型的均衡因子、产量因子进行了改进,使其计算结果更符合怀来县实际。根据改进的生态足迹模型对怀来县2000～2010年的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈余(生态赤字)、生态压力等方面进行了研究,对引起变化的关键因素及变动趋势进行了挖掘和分析。结果表明：2000-2010年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力虽然从趋势看总体都处于上升,但两者升幅大不相同,人均生态赤字呈扩大趋势。生态压力指数从2000年的0.52较安全变为2010年的1.15较不安全,11年间的平均值为0.95,总体处于较不安全状态。
再次,论文采用指数加和法和限制因子法进行土地适宜性评价。根据怀来县的自然条件和评价因子的选取原则,结合专家咨询结果,经过论证、筛选,选取了坡向、高程、坡度、水资源、土壤有机质等。采用极限因子法和指数加和法,借助GIS空间分析技术对怀来县土地资源不同用途的适宜性和适宜程度进行评定,找到土地利用的最适宜方式。结果表明：怀来县东西部平原区最适宜耕地和园地的种植；南北丘陵区较为适宜园地、林地、草地；而南北山区更加适合种植林灌。
最后,论文对土地优化预测、分析、评价及对策进行研究。采用马尔科夫模型预测2020年怀来县土地利用结构。采用灰色多目标线性规划模型,以土地利用生态承载力和土地利用经济效益作为目标函数,设置生态最优、生态优先、生态经济并重、经济最优、经济优先5个情景进行不同目标下土地利用结构优化预测。然后根据不同土地利用结构下所能提供的生态承载力,产出的经济效益,结合土地利用现状,未来生态经济社会发展需要与可能筛选优化方案,最终选择了经济生态并重情景：与2010年相比,生态承载力增加了39.50%,经济效益增加了130.95%,基本能够满足2020年经济发展和生态保护对土地的需求。同时依据怀来县土地适宜性评价结果,利用GIS空间分析技术对确定的2020年土地利用类型数量结构进行空间分布优化,得到怀来县2020年土地利用优化图。基于上述研究结果分别针对怀来县的水资源、耕地、林地、园地、草地和建设用地提出了相应的发展策略,为当地的可持续性发展提供建议和参考。
With the improvement of citizens'life qualities, the infinite nature of people's needs and the limitations of land are becoming more and more contradictory. And it makes the conflict between the economic and social development and the ecological carrying capacity. How to achieve the sustainable development of economics and society with an acceptable ecological carrying capacity becomes a realistic problem that all the countries and all the regions, in any arid zone, have to face.
The present study chose the Huailai County of Hebei province, which located to the northwest of Beijing and the upstream of Yongding River, as research object to study the land use optimization based on the ecological carrying capacity. The study is representative in the country, for the various geomorphic types of mountain, basin, touradon, river and reservoir, the complex vegetation form of woodland, farmland, garden, grassland and wasteland, and the advanced industrialization and urbanization process in Zhangjiakou region of Huailai County.
The present paper studied the land use changes, ecological carring capacity, land suitability and land use optimization of Huailai County based on the methods of geographic information technoogy, ecological footprint, multi-objective programming and so on. Firstly, the characters, rules and reasons of land utilization changes were studied. By interpreting satellite images of Huailai County in2000,2005and2010to acquire the data of land use in Huailai, combining the investigation informations, using the transfer matrix and statistic methods, the explainations of land area composition, spatial distribution, dynamic change, the magnitude and velocity of change were studied. It was showed that during2000-2010, the land uses of each land type keeping on changing. The rate of change in descending order was as the unused land> urban and rural construction land> garden> waters> grassland> farmland> woodland. The dynamic degree of land use was1.26%in11years,1.91%in2000-2005and0.87%in2005-2010, respectively. Secondly, the paper calculated and analyzed the ecological carrying capacity based on the improved ecological footprint model. The limit factor and weighted index in classical ecological footprint model were improved with the ecosystem service value theory, to make the calculation result more truthful. Therefor, the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus/deficit and ecological pressure of Huailai during2000～2010were studied. And the key effecting factors and the tendency of the changes were analyzed in depth. It is showed that during the11years from2000to2010, the ecological footprint per capita and the ecological carrying capacity per capita both increased, but they had different growth which made the ecological deficit per capita increase. Basically, the ecology of Huailai County was at a loss and unsafe in the11years, the ecological pressure index of2000is0.52, the ecological pressure index of2010is1.15, the average ecological pressure index was0.95.
Thirdly, the land use suitability evaluation was carried out with index additive method and limiting factor method. According to the nature condition of Huailai, the selection of evaluation factors and the experts advisory result, the slope direction, elevation, slope, water resources, soil organic matter were chosen as dominant factors. With index additive method and limiting factor method and the GIS technology the suitability of land resources in Huailai were evaluated. The result showed that eastern and western plains were suitable for farmland and garden planting; northern and southern hilly area were more appropriate for garden, woodland and grassland; while the northern and southern mountains is more suitable for planting shrub and forests.
At last, the land optimization prediction, analysis, evaluation and countermeasures were studied. The Markov forecasting model was used to predict the land use structures of Huailai County in2020. Using grey multi-objective linear programming model, taking ecological carrying capacity and economical benefits of land use as objective function, setting five scenes of optimal ecology, ecological priority, equal ecology and economy, economic priority and optimal economy to predict the land use structure. According to the ecological carrying capacities, economic benefits of different land use structures, the development needs of ecology, economy and society and the optional program, the equal ecology and economy was chosen as the best strategy:Compared with2010, the ecological carrying capacity increased39.50%, an economic benefit increased130.95%, which can basically meet the demand of economic development and ecological protection of2020for land need. Meanwhile, based on the results of land suitability assessment of Huailai County, and using analytical techniques of GIS for optimizing the spatial distribution of land use types in2020, Huailai County2020land use optimization map was obtained. Based on this optimization land use map, the corresponding development strategies were made, for water resources, farmland, woodland, orchard, grassland and construction land in Huailai County respectively, which provided advices and references for sustainable local development.
引文
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