摘要
城市水资源系统是一个复杂的大系统,包含供水系统、用水系统、排水系统、处理系统、容纳系统和管理系统等。由于城市化进程的加快和工业的迅速发展,使得近年来城市对水资源的需求急剧增长,同时由于供水设施建设滞后和水资源污染,目前全国大部分城市出现不同程度的缺水现象,每年因缺水造成的直接经济损失达2000多亿元,水资源短缺已经成为我国城市经济发展的重要制约因素;而且随着人口的不断增加及社会经济的不断发展,城市水资源供需矛盾将更加尖锐。为缓解城市水资源供需矛盾、减少因水资源短缺引起的社会、经济、生态等问题,合理预测未来需水、改革现有的城市水资源管理体制并对未来水资源系统进行评价是解决城市水问题的有效途径。因此,本文针对城市水资源系统存在的主要问题,结合国内外研究现状,对城市规划年需水进行分析预测,通过市场手段对城市进行水权初始分配及水权交易研究,并对城市的水安全状态进行了评价。主要研究内容和成果如下:
(1)城市长期需水预测研究。城市需水预测是城市给水和节水发展规划的基础,文中选取对城市用水影响较大的因素作为预测指标,通过HP滤波分析其指标及用水量的趋势成分和波动成分。将需水及其影响因子的趋势性成分与波动性成分分别考虑,应用多元线性回归法及模糊优选神经网络进行模拟预测,然后通过组合以获得城市需水的预测值。通过验证,得出预测精度最高的组合预测模型作为城市需水的预测模型,预测结果可以为城市总体规划提供一定的参考。
(2)城市外调水水权初始分配研究。城市水权初始分配对于保护城市水资源、保护生态环境、协调城市各地区各用水户的正当用水权益、合理开发利用水资源、节水和提高用水效益、培育与发展水市场、优化配置水资源有着重大的意义。本文针对城市外调水水源,借鉴传统水权分配原则,分析提出了外调水水权分配原则及量化方法,建立了相应的多目标优化分配模型,通过综合考虑决策者经验以及城市社会、经济、用水现状,确定经验权重及数学权重,结合经验权重和数学权重确定各目标的综合权重,进而将多目标优化问题化为单目标优化问题进行求解。
(3)城市工农业水权交易研究。水权交易是水资源配置制度创新的核心,是提高水资源利用效率,实现水资源优化配置的有效手段。本文研究并建立了基于政府补偿与基于水权“准市场”的两种不同的水权交易模型。对于政府补偿政策下的水权交易,本文分析了交易价格的构成,建立了以“节水投入+转让补偿”为基础的“两部制”模型,重点研究其中的农业水资源价值及补偿费用,提出了相应的简化模型;对于水权“准市场”的交易模型,本文分析了在市场条件下,水权交易双方的出价策略及收益,建立了水权交易的合作博弈模型,并得出该交易模型的纳什谈判解。最后以大连市为例建立了大连市工农业水权交易模型,验证了模型的合理性。
(4)基于工农业水权转让的城市水资源优化配置研究。以大连市为研究背景,参考已有研究成果,考虑大连市工农业水权转让,建立了以缺水量最小及用水费用最小为目标的水资源分配模型,分别得出在现状供水能力、工农业水权转让情况下的大连市2010、2020年水资源配置方案,并分析了工农业水权转让对水资源配置的影响,为进行比较,最后分析了引进外调水的大连市水资源配置及影响。
(5)城市水安全评价的指标体系与评价方法研究。城市水安全的综合评价是制定城市水安全战略与规划、进行城市水安全决策的前提和基础。在综合分析了城市水安全内涵及特征的情况下,选取了影响城市水安全状态的定性及定量指标,建立了城市水安全综合评价指标体系,并将指标进行了等级划分,确定了各等级的指标标准值。针对水安全系统的模糊性,建立了多层可变模糊综合评价方法。最后,将模型应用到大连市,并对大连市近年来水安全状况进行了评价。模型具有简便、易操作的特性,评价结果可以为城市未来用水结构调整及水资源管理规划提供一定的方向。
最后对全文做出总结,对有待进一步研究的问题进行展望。
Rapid population rise along with improved standards of living, urbanization and industrial growth have led to increased demand, competition and conflicts among different water users, therefore the future development of water resources will be more difficult due to the limitations of hydrology, topography and geology. In order to relief the conflict of the water supply and demand, and lessen the matters about society, economy and ecological environment caused by water shortage, to reform the existing water resources management system is a an inevitable approach to solve the urban water problems. Consequently, referring to the research results at home and abroad about water market, based on the urban water demand forecasting, the urban water market is studied, and the urban water security is evaluated. The main research and results are as follows:
(1) The study of a long term forecasting model for the urban water demand. Urban water demand is the basis of the development planning for water-supply and water-saving. In the paper, the factors correlative with water demand are selected, then the trend and cyclical components of the factors are calculated by method of Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. Then the multiple linear regression method is applied to simulate the trend components, and the fuzzy neural network is built based on the cyclical components, and then the two models are combined to forecast the urban annual water demand. In order to illuminate the model, it is used to forecast the annual water demand of Dalian against actual data records from 1980 to 2007. By comparing with the traditional methods, the preferable model accuracy demonstrates the effectiveness of fuzzy neural network and multiple linear regression based on HP filter in forecasting urban annual water demand. The results show the model is reliable and feasible, and it can provide some references for urban water resources management.
(2) The study of urban water rights optimal allocation. Water rights allocation has great meanings for water resource protection, ecological environment protection, water resources rational utilization, water market development and so on. Aimed at the different water resources, the water rights are divided into two types, the traditional water rights and the non-traditional water rights. For the traditional water rights, five allocation principles for water rights allocation of transferred water are proposed. On this basis the multi-object optimal allocation model is established for regional transferred water rights. The domestic water process water and ecological water are comprehensively considered in the model and it fully addresses fairness effectiveness and sustainable development of water rights allocation. In order to solve the model the multi-object optimization model is transformed into a single-object one with a weighted method by the determination of the weights of objective functions. The weights of objective functions are determined by the comprehensive weight method. The objective weights are obtained using the entropy weight method and the subjective weights are obtained by analyzing the intention of decision-makers. The weights of the comprehensive decision are obtained by the linear weighting method. The model not only considers the real situation but also the intentions of the decision-makers which makes it more flexible. Finally the model is applied to water rights allocation in Dalian. The result shows that the model is valuable in practice and it can be used to guide the planning of regional water transfer engineering and the optimal allocation of water resources.
(3) Urban water rights trade and the pricing model study. Water rights trade is the core to innovate water resource allocation system, and it is also an effective approach to allocate water resources. In the paper, the basic condition and the trade principle of urban water rights trade are analyzed, and the water rights trade models under the government compensation and the quasi-market are established. For the model of government compensation, the pricing model is established based on the two-part model including of investment for water saving and compensation fee. The agricultural water resource value and compensation fee are discussed mainly, then the corresponding model is proposed respectively. For the model of quasi-market, the bidding strategies and benefit functions of both trade sides are proposed, then the cooperative game model for water rights trade is established, and the Nash bargaining solution of the model is given. In order to illustrate the models, the models for water rights trade between industry and agriculture is developed in Dalian.
(4) Urban water resources optimal allocation based on the water right trade between agriculture and industry. Refer to the existing research results, and considering the water right trade between agriculture and industry in Dalian, the allocation model for water resource is established, which target is to minimize the water shortage and the total water cost. Finally, the model is applied to allocate Dalian's water resources in 2010 and 2020, and the different allocation schemes are gotten under the conditions of current water supply capacity, water rights trade between industry and argricuture and inter-basin water transferring. The influences of the water rights trade and inter-basin water transferring are analyzed.
(5) The comprehensive evaluation of urban water security is the premise and foundation to build the strategy and planning and make the decision for urban water security. After analyzing the meaning and characteristics, the qualitative and quantitative indexes are selected for urban water security evaluation, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of water security is established. Then the indexes are graded and the grade standard values of each index are determined. Due to the fuzziness of the water security system, the multi-hierarchy variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is built. Finally, the model is applied to evaluate the urban water security of Dalian. The case study proves that model and method are reasonable and feasible, and the evaluating results can provide reference for adjusting the urban water utilization structure and working out the water resources management and planning.
Lastly, the conclusions and the problems need to be further studied are given at the end of the dissertation.
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