摘要
自改革开放以来,开放和与之相伴随的经济长期高速发展极大地改变了中国农业的周边环境。经济增长和人民收入的提高使得对农产品的需求无论在数量、质量还是种类上都比以往有了极大的提高;与此同时,城市化和工业化的发展却使得耕地不断被侵占,而二三产业的发展又使得劳动力等投入不断地流出农业。中国农业不得不在这开放的大背景下,依靠有限的投入,生产出足以基本满足国内消费者需求的农产品,维持农业整体的国际竞争力,提高农民收入水平。完成这一任务势必需要农业生产效率在长期内的持续提高,而本文的主旨,就是在讨论开放环境和必然与之相随的产业链演进对中国农业生产效率的影响,寻求在长期内维持其增长的可行之道。
基于这一主旨,在介绍完选题的背景、意义、研究思路,综述已有文献之后,本文的第三章在确定国内外市场上农产品价格之间联系的同时,通过将过往研究所使用的时间序列数据扩展成面板数据,发现了开放在其间起到的重要作用：开放显著地增强了这种联系,将农业生产者暴露在了世界市场上的农产品波动面前。
给定这一结果,要有效地应对国际市场上的价格波动,农业生产效率的提高必不可少,因而本文在第四章通过对农业生产率的分解深入地考察了其影响因素,分析了开放环境在其中的作用,发现开放显著地增强了中国农业技术效率的收敛趋势,借着这一渠道,开放将最终逆转技术效率在过去的衰退趋势,消除中国农业生产率增长背后的隐忧。
这一结果虽然令人乐观,但却显得过于宏观,在因果性上也欠严密,因而更深入的考察必不可少。基于这一目的,从第五章开始,本文拉近了研究视角,开始从产业链演进的角度细致地考察开放环境下中国农业的变化。
在第五章当中,本文从理论视角深入地分析了产业链演进的机理及其背后的推动力量,总结了当前全球化背景下农业产业链的演进规律,结合第六章当中对日本农业产业链演进史的回顾和中国农业的具体情况,本文最终在第七章当中构建了中国农业产业链演进的理论模型,指出了其在开放环境下的演进方向,提出它将会、也应当向着整合程度更高的方向演进。
给定产业链的演进方向,确定其对中国农业生产效率的影响就十分重要。循着这一思路,借助严密的实证工具,本文在随后的第八章当中在控制其他变量的情况下对比了产业链整合前后中国农业企业的绩效变化情况,发现产业链演进在短期内显著地提高了农业企业的生产效率。
生产效率在短期内一次性的提高对中国农业而言并不足够,考虑到创新对企业、产业乃至整体经济长期效率增进的关键作用.本文在随后的第九章转而关注产业链整合对企业创新激励的影响。同样是借助严密的实证工具,在控制其他因素的情况下,通过对产业链整合前后企业创新激励的对比,本文发现产业链整合显著地提高了企业的创新激励。这表明,无论是在短期还是长期内,产业链演进所带来的产业链整合程度提高都可以有效地促进当前中国农业企业和农业整体生产效率的增长。
给定这些结果,通过对其阻碍因素的消除来促进产业链自发地演进,就可以成为在长期内提高中国农业生产效率和国际竞争力,促进农民收入增长的可行之道,本文在最后一章当中基于这一思路提出了相应的政策建议。
总而言之,本文总结了开放环境下农业产业链的演进规律,指出了产业链整合程度的提高是中国农业产业链在开放环境下的恰当演进方向,找到了产业链整合对中国农业生产效率正面作用的存在证据。相比以往研究,本文首次以可靠的定量方法证实了开放在农产品国内外市场价格联系形成中的作用、发现开放显著地增强了农业技术效率的收敛趋势、指出了开放环境下中国农业产业链的未来演进方向、并以严密的实证研究证实了产业链整合对中国农业短期和长期效率增进的正面作用。基于这些结果,本文最终提出了促进中国农业产业链自发演进的政策建议。
The new open environment and the long-term rapid development of whole economy have also made the surroundings of China's agriculture changed significantly since the Reform and Opening. On the one hand, economic and income growth make demand for agricultural products increasing greatly, whether in quantity, quality or varieties;on the other hand, the space to develop for China's agriculture was occupied by expanding cities and rapidly growing industries. Pressures from both demand and supply side made China's agricultural value chain have to evolve, to produce enough outputs with limited inputs in an open environment, to maintain a Chinese agriculture's international competitiveness, to raise farmers' income. To accomplish this hard task, a continued growth of agricultural productivity is necessary, and the purpose of this article is to discuss the direction of the evolution of China's agricultural value chain, find its impact on China's agricultural productivity, whether in short-term or in long-term.
Based on this purpose, after introducing and literature reviews, in the3rd and4th chapters, this article summed up every impact of openness on China's agricultural, and put special attention on the world agricultural product price fluctuation on domestic agricultural prices, on the evolution of China's agricultural productivity.
The analysis of the evolution of China's agricultural value chain begins in chapter5. The writer analyzed the determining of value chain integration, summarized the law of agricultural value chain evolution during globalization. Combine the case study on Japan agriculture in Chapter6. the article build a simple model of China's agricultural value chain evolution, point out the existing problem during that evolution.
Based on that analysis, this article studied the impact of value chain evolution on China's agricultural productivity in short-term and long-tem in chapter8and chapter9. separately. The results show that proper evolution of agricultural value chain can improve China's agricultural productivity significantly, whether in short or long term.
Given the positive impact of value chain evolution on China's agricultural productivity, it could be effective tools for China's agriculture to improve its productivity and international competiveness. to raise Chinese farmers' income. This article makes some policy suggestions in that way in the last chapter.
In short, this article summarized the law of agricultural value chain evolution in an open environment, point out the direction of China's agricultural value chain evolution:find the evidence of its significantly positive impact on agricultural productivity. Compared with previous studies, for the first time, this article confirm the effect of open on the emerge of the relationship between domestic and world market agricultural prices, find the convergent tendency of China's agricultural technical efficiency has been enhanced signanificantly in the open environment, point out the direction of the evolution of China's agcicultura value chain, and proved the positive impact of vertical integration on China's agricultural productivity in the short and long term. Based on those results, this article gives some policy suggestion at last.
引文
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