摘要
电力工业作为基础性行业之一,在维护社会秩序稳定和促进经济健康发展中肩负着重大的责任。在市场经济的新形势下,随着生产力的不断增长,以及社会和经济逐渐繁荣,计划经济体制已经成为阻碍生产力发展的桎梏,传统的管理方式已经不能适应电力工业进一步发展的需要。为了提高电力工业的经济效率,增强电力企业的竞争活力,并改善电力系统的供电可靠性,世界各国逐渐开始尝试对电力工业进行改革,通过在电力系统的生产运行中引入市场竞争机制和商业化的运作方式,促进电力工业在新形势下的健康持续发展。在电力工业的改革进程中,如何保证电力系统的供电可靠性水平,在促进社会经济发展的同时避免对社会和经济造成负面冲击,就成为当前形势下亟待解决的问题。
本文主要研究电力市场环境下的供电可靠性保障机制的理论和应用问题。在电力系统中,对于供电可靠性可以分别从技术层面和经济层面加以考察。本论文主要侧重于从经济层面研究电力系统的供电可靠性保障机制,因此将电力系统的可靠性问题展开为供应和需求两个方面进行研究。
对于供应方面,本文研究提出了计及变动成本和机组可用率的最优装机容量水平计算模型,并分析了发电投资短缺与过剩之间的不对称风险问题,归纳总结了电力市场所具有的多种不完善性因素。同时,本文提出了发电投资的动态模拟方法,并应用该方法将单一能量市场机制与典型容量机制进行对比分析,证实了理想情况下单一能量市场机制的适用性和非理想情况下容量机制的必要性。对于需求方面,本文研究了需求侧价格弹性对于负荷需求的调节作用的定量分析模型,以及在供应紧张的情况下对有限发电资源的经济分配方式,等等。通过采取适当的需求侧管理措施,可以增强需求侧对于市场价格的响应,配合供应侧完善市场机制的资源优化配置功能,从而以最经济的方式对负荷需求加以调控,保证系统和用户的供电可靠性,并达到移峰填谷和节能减排的效果。
在供需两侧相结合的基础上,本文联系我国实际情况,对我国的电力市场模式设计提出了发售一体化的方案建议。这是因为对于目前容量机制的设计而言,还不存在最优容量机制的定论。同时,容量机制完全是源于对市场的人为设计,特别是其设计目的在于弥补价格限额等人为干涉对发电投资水平的影响。因此从最大限度发挥市场机制作用和减少人为干扰因素的角度出发,发售一体化的思路有利于促进市场中供应侧与需求侧的交互联系,从而实现发电投资和供电可靠性的最优化。
As one of the basic industries,electricity sector plays an indispensable in the development of both society and economy.Under the new situation of market reform,the technology,society and economy evolve,and the traditional economy system based on planning is out of date.Therefore,market reform and privatization is introduced into the electricity sector all over the world,which is intended to promote the economic efficiency, enhance the competence of power companies,and improve the power supply reliability.Then, how to maintain a certain reliability level of power supply in the electricity reform and reduce the adverse its impact on the society and economy is a problem that should be managed ahead.
This thesis mainly focuses on the theory and application research of power supply reliability safeguard mechanism,from the perspective of economy,and therefore factors such as supply and demand are chosen as main points of the study.
For supply,this thesis proposes a model of the optimal installed generation capacity, analyzes the asymmetric risks between under- and over- investment,and concludes the imperfections of the electricity market in reality.In addition,a dynamic simulation model is proposed and applied to the contrast between the energy-only market and typical capacity mechanisms.For demand,this thesis builds up a quantitive evaluation model of the impact of price elasticity improvement on the load duration curve,and conceives the economic distribution of generation resource in situations of supply shortage.With suitable demand side management measures,demand response to market price can be promoted,and thus the optimal allocation of resource can be achieved in coordination with the supply side.Therefore, load is managed economically,and for both the system and customers,the reliability of electricity supply is maintained,and the result of energy conservation and emission reduction is obtained.
Based on the integration study of supply and demand,this thesis proposes a suggestion of generation-retail combination in China's electricity market design,according to the reality in China.This is because the optimal capacity mechanism is still controversial among different capacity mechanisms.Since any capacity mechanism is a purely artificial design, which is intended to reduce the price signal distortion caused by human interruptions,i.e. price caps,the generation-retail combination is a solution to generation investment and reliability optimization,for its direct interaction between supply and demand.
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