摘要
突破性创新是建立在一套不同的科学技术原理之上,通过在产品、工艺或服务领域的变革,改变市场规则和竞争态势,甚至导致整个产业的重新洗牌的一类创新。可见,突破性创新是企业建立核心竞争力的有效途径。但是,相对于渐进性创新而言,突破性创新不仅在市场和技术方面存在不确定性,而且在资源、组织两方面也具有高度不确定性,往往让决策者望而却步。所以,开展突破性创新风险研究既能为企业决策者提供实践依据,又能丰富突破性创新研究的理论意义。
本文从突破性创新的概念和内涵入手,结合风险理论、风险管理理论和技术创新理论,分析突破性创新风险的产生和传导机理,建立了突破性创新风险系统,对突破性创新风险系统进行动态演化过程进行分析,并以风险管理视角,建立突破性创新的风险因素体系,提出突破性创新风险水平的评估模型,并通过系统动力学模型对突破性创新风险演化过程进行动态跟踪描述,为企业提高突破性创新成功率,防范突破性创新风险提供理论依据和实施建议。
首先,指出突破性创新风险源是一个多维度、多层次的风险源系统,主要包括外部环境风险源、企业内部系统风险源以及创新项目风险源三个层面；然后在此基础上,结合突破性创新企业自身特点,构建了企业突破性创新风险传导网络；在此基础上,提出突破性创新风险阂值的概念,分析企业突破性创新风险系统演化机理。
其次,指出企业突破性创新风险系统是一个复杂系统,具有开放性、非线性、远离平衡态、随机涨落性等复杂性特征。在此基础上对突破性创新风险系统演化过程进行稳定性分析、突变性分析、随机涨落力分析,得出突破性创新风险系统的进化是一个组织结构和资源能力的有序度增加的过程,而且演化路径具有多样性和选择性；并且企业突破性创新风险系统的演化过程包括累积渐变阶段和突变阶段两个阶段；还指出了虽然随机涨落力具有偶然性和不显著性,可能对突破性创新风险系统演化过程具有重要的影响。
接着,设计了风险要素对突破性创新项目影响程度的调查问卷,并通过信效度分析,运用主成分分析法,得出了14个主成分,55个测量项,构建了企业突破性创新项目的关键风险因素体系。
然后,提出了基于主成分分析法的可拓物元矩阵综合评估方法,对比亚迪纯电动汽车项目风险状态进行综合评估。同时,也对项目的各个风险因子进行了风险评估,结果见表4-7。
最后,通过建立系统动力学模型和模型仿真模拟,揭示了突破性创新项目风险的动态变化趋势呈现出类似倒U型的曲线形势,并通过对模型参数分析,为企业制定有效的风险调控政策和措施提供了依据。图35幅,表22个,参考文献222篇。
Breakthrough technological innovation, which is established on a whole set of different scientific and technological principles, can occur reform in areas such as product, process or service, in order to change the market rules and the competitive situation, and even cause the entire industry to re-shuffle. As is proven, breakthrough innovation is an effective way for enterprises to build the core competitiveness. But, compared with the incremental innovation, in breakthrough innovation projects, project teams has to contend not only with challenging technical and market uncertainties, but with organizational and resource uncertainties as well, which have been plagued by the decision makers. So, this study has enriched breakthrough technological innovation theory and has important practical significance.
This paper analyzes the generation and conduction mechanism of breakthrough innovation risk under the combination of breakthrough innovation and risk theories, and sets up a breakthrough innovation risk system. By discussing the dynamic evolution process of this risk system, the paper develops risk elements system of breakthrough innovation and assessment model of breakthrough innovation risk level. By using the system dynamic model, this study describes the process of risk evolution.
Firstly, this paper points out that the breakthrough innovation risk source system is a multi-dimensional, multi-level risk source system, and it mainly includes three aspects of risk source:external environmental risk source, internal risk source, innovation project risk source; and under these analyses, combined with the breakthrough innovation enterprise's characteristic, this paper points out the concept of breakthrough innovation risk threshold and the risk system evolution mechanism of breakthrough innovation in enterprises.
Secondly, this paper points out that the enterprise innovation risk system is a complex system, with the complex features of open, nonlinear, far from equilibrium, stochastic fluctuation.On this basis, by using the method of stability analysis, mutation analysis, stochastic fluctuation strength analysis, the paper gets these conclusions:the evolution of breakthrough innovation risk system is an expanding process of organization structure and resource capabilities. The characteristics of the evolution path is diversity and selective; the evolution process of breakthrough innovation risk system involves two stages of cumulative transition and the mutation; the random fluctuating force may have a significant effect on the evolution of breakthrough innovation risk system.
Thirdly, this study designs a questionnaire of risk factors on breakthrough innovation projects. By using the method of validity, reliability and Principal Component Analysis, the paper gets14main components,55measurement items, and establishes the risk element system of breakthrough innovation project.
Fourthly, this paper points out the method of Extension-Matter-Element model of risk measure based on Principal Component Analysis, and makes comprehensive evaluation of BYD pure electric vehicle project's risk status. The results show the level of risk BYD electric vehicle project in two levels, and it is low risk. At the same time, the paper evaluates the risk of each risk factor of the project. The results are shown in table4-7.
Finally, through the system dynamics model and simulation model, the paper reveals the dynamic change trend of breakthrough innovation item risk present situation similar curve inverted U type, and through the analysis of the parameters of the model, the paper provides the basis for the enterprise to formulate effective policies and measures of the risk control.
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