摘要
经过几十年的快速发展，基金业已经继银行业、证券业和保险业之后，成为金融体系的另一大支柱，各种类型的基金在经济投资领域开始发挥越来越重要的作用。我国的基金业随着《证券投资基金法》的出台，也开始步入快速健康发展阶段。相随而生的，如何评价基金的业绩成为一个紧迫而且必要的问题，而基金的市场择时能力则是基金业绩的一个最主要的衡量指标。本文正是从这个角度出发，对我国封闭式基金的市场择时能力进行了一番实证研究。
文章分五部分。第一、第二部分从总体上介绍了证券投资基金的职能、作用以及国内外的发展运作情况；第三部分详细论述了基金市场择时能力的概念，并对国内外基金市场择时能力的研究模型及相关的研究成果做了一定的总结归纳；第四部分是文章的重点，在第三部分的基础上，作者选择了十五只封闭式基金作为研究样本，运用基金市场择时能力模型进行了实证分析。结果显示，我国的封闭式基金并不具有很强的市场择时能力，而且不同的基金的市场择时能力表现出一定的层次性；第五部分根据第四部分得出的结论，作者针对我国基金业的发展，设计了几点相对应的策略。
With the several-decade years' rapid growth, fund industry has become another backbone of the finance system, following bank industry, security industry and insurance industry. And all kinds of funds pay a more and more important role in the investment field. In China, with the issuing of "Security Investment Fund Act" in Oct 28th, 2003, the fund industry has step into a rapid and health development stage. Accordingly, how to evaluate the funds' performance becomes an urgent and indispensable problem. And the market timing ability of fund is one of key indicators of funds' performance. Basing on this point, this article gives a positive study on the market timing ability of Chinese close-ended funds.
This article has been divided into five parts. The first and second parts give a view of the function and the operation as well as the development of securities investment fund. In the third part, the author defines the conception of market timing ability of securities investment fund, and dissertate its research models and correlative conclusions at home and abroad. The forth part is the keystone of this dissertation. The author picks fifteen close-ended funds as the study sample to take a positive analysis with the help of the funds' market timing ability models. Consequently, there are no enough signs to show that these funds have strong market timing ability, but their market timing ability can be separated into four levers. The last part designs several corresponding strategies for the healthy development of Chinese fund industry.
引文
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