摘要
在煤炭、电力产业关系日趋紧张的当前,“煤电一体化”已成为缓和两者矛盾,促进能源行业发展的重要架构取向。“煤电一体化”发展战略不仅能够协调煤炭与电力产业链的平衡发展,对于社会的稳定、经济的发展、环境的保护和资源的节约也有重要的贡献。“煤电一体化”实施的关键是对煤炭电力一体化能源系统开展系统研究,实现煤炭和电力的统一规划管理。然而煤电一体化能源系统结构庞杂和组成繁复,具有多组分综合、多时期动态、多系统互动以及多维不确定性等复杂特征,本研究从能源-环境-经济综合系统的角度,构建煤电一体化能源系统优化模型,结合不确定性优化方法,探索复杂、不确定条件下煤电一体化能源系统内部煤电协调发展的运作机制以及污染物减排控制方案,满足煤电联营系统的运行和管理需求,为制定前瞻性、战略性、系统性、科学性的煤电一体化能源系统战略发展规划提供决策支持。
研究结合能源系统规划的理论和知识,总结煤电一体化能源系统结构和特征,分析电力和煤炭产业不同层次的能源需求、供应、输运、转换、存储等环节和过程,构建煤电一体化能源系统优化模型。深入分析和辨识煤电一体化能源系统的复杂互动和不确定性因素,筛选出目前煤电一体化能源系统管理领域较为突出和典型的问题,结合随机规划、区间规划、混合整数规划等不确定性规划方法,构建一系列不确定条件下的煤电一体化能源系统模型,提高该系统管理与决策的科学性和准确性。在煤电一体化能源系统优化模型的基础上,本文还将二氧化碳减排和煤矿生态修复等环节与煤电一体化能源系统进行耦合,引入模糊强健、区间、随机和整数规划,建立了一系列不确定条件下考虑二氧化碳减排和生态修复的煤电一体化能源系统优化模型,通过情景分析方法,考察大气污染物和温室气体的排放管理政策以及生态环境效应管理政策,探讨不同碳减排技术以及生态修复措施在该系统的适用性和实用性。研究还对典型煤电一体化能源系统——华北地区煤电一体化能源系统开展了案例研究,通过实例研究,验证所提出的能源系统综合优化方法与模型的实用性和可靠性。结果显示提出的不确定条件下煤电一体化能源系统优化模型不仅能够满足煤电联营的运行和管理需求,还能够避免财力、物力的浪费,提高能源系统的可靠性,减少污染物的排放,达到经济和环境效益双赢。
In the face of the special contradictions between the coal and electricity industries in China, coupling coal and power production in an economical and environment-friendly manner is an important way to eliminate the conflicts and promote energy development. Integration of these two industries not only could coordinate and balance development of the coal and electricity industry chain, but also has an important contribution to social stability, economic development, environmental protection and resource saving. Then, planning of coupled coal and power management (CCPM) system through emphasizing the close relationship between China's coal and electricity production is necessary and imperative in this country. However, the composition and structure of this system are complicated with multi-period dynamics and multi-dimensional uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an inexact coupled coal and power management model through the integration of inexact programming methods to techniques to (a) identify the desired energy policy and pollution control scheme for the coupled coal and power management system under uncertainty;(b) satisfy the requirements for operation and management;(c) provide decision support for making forward-looking, strategic, systematic and scientific strategy for the CCPM system.
Based on the theories and knowledge of energy systems planning and analysis of the complex composition and structure, an optimization model for the coupled coal and power management system is firstly developed. A great number of factors and processes are considered in this model, such as policy intervention, coal production, electricity generation, transmission, conversion, transportation, as well as the associated environment effects. Facilitate in-depth analysis of the complicated uncertainties and interactive factors, and screen out the prominent and typical management problems in the CCPM system. Then, through an integration of interval linear programming, mixed integer programming and stochastic mathematical programming, a series of inexact coupled coal and power management models are proposed to improve the scientificalness and accuracy of decision-making under uncertainty. Moreover, in terms of tremendous pressure to reduce CO2emissions and protect ecological environment, a series of inexact optimization models are developed for supporting coupled management of coal and power generation with the consideration of CO2emission reduction and ecological restoration under uncertainty. Through integrating mixed-integer programming, interval linear programming and fuzzy linear programming into a general optimization framework, system complexities originated from a number of sectors/processes can be successfully reflected and handled. Scenarios analysis is conducted to examine the optimal CO2emission mitigation and ecological restoration schemes for the coupled coal and power management system which is forced to comply with given CO2emission control and ecological environment protect targets. The developed models have been applied to a case of long-term coupled coal and power management systems planning in north China. The obtained interval solutions can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision makers identify desired energy mechanisms for coal production and allocation, power generation, facility capacity installation and expansion and coal blending under various social-economic, environmental and system-reliability constraints with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability, a maximized energy security and maximized economic and environmental benefits.
引文
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