摘要
本文以WTO农业多边谈判为主线,从多个层面出发,研究了多哈农业协议对我国农业的影响,提出了我国的谈判立场与策略选择。主要研究内容与结果包括5个方面:
(1)农业多边贸易谈判历程及主要内容分析。从历史演变的视角出发,分GATT谈判历程、乌拉圭回合农业协议达成、多哈农业谈判的进展及谈判框架形成等3部分剖析了农业多边贸易谈判的历程和主要特征;讨论了乌拉圭回合农业协议存在的局限性;指出了乌拉圭回合农业协议与多哈回合模式草案4点主要差异。
(2)加入WTO对我国农业的影响分析。综合分析了多边协议实施对我国农业产生的实际效果,我国加入WTO极大地推动了贸易自由化的发展进程,农产品贸易高速发展,对国家经济发展起到了非常积极的作用。文中从正反两方面对加入WTO带来的影响进行了总结。
(3)模式草案的主要条款及其影响分析。对于国内支持条款,作者详细测算了目前的国内支持水平,并做了系统的模拟分析,结果表明,我国基础OTDS和非特定产品AMS限制均远高于目前能够提供的支持水平,在相当长的时间内,财政资源有限是我国支农政策的主要约束条件。在市场准入方面,作者设计了分层公式削减我国农产品关税的效果研究方案,模拟分析结果表明,应用分层公式使平均约束税率从15.76 %削减到10.38%;使用新成员条款,削减后的平均税率上升到12.34%;灵活性条款使削减后的平均约束税率上升到13.30%,净削减幅度为15.6%。此外,还对特殊保障机制的使用进行了模拟分析,对特殊产品条款和新成员待遇的使用效果进行了研究。
(4)多哈回合模式草案对WTO主要成员的影响,以及主要谈判方的立场分析。论文选择美国、欧盟、印度、巴西为主要对象,从多个方面综合分析了它们受多哈回合模式草案的影响程度。结果表明,模式草案对于各方的影响较小,多哈农业谈判改革力度有限。文中对美国、欧盟、G20、G10、凯恩斯集团、G33等6个主要谈判方的立场、利益关注和方案主张进行研究,探讨了我国在这种复杂谈判格局下的策略思路。
(5)我国在WTO框架下实施农业支持保护的政策研究。主要开展了两方面的研究,一是以市场准入条件为主,探讨我国在多边贸易体制中应发挥的作用,提出了我国参加多边谈判的目标、核心关注和谈判立场,从总体策略定位、实现途径选择两个层面出发,提出了我国参与多边谈判的策略体系和主要措施;二是从国内支持政策出发,探讨符合WTO框架的我国农业支持保护政策选择,提出了“支持、保护、调控、促进”四位一体的政策思路。最后,提出了进一步研究的3点设想。
The paper studies the impact of Doha agriculture draft modalities on agriculture sector in China and provides the negotiation position and strategy from Chinese prespective. The main contents and findings are the following
1. The analysis on the path and key area of multilaterial agriculture negotiation is conducted from three aspects, which include the GATT, Urgruary Round and Agreement on Agriculture (herein refers to AOA) the development of Doha Round and its negotiation framework. This part examines the history and main stage of multilaterial agriculture negotiation, discusses the limits of AOA in Urgruary Round, and the difference between the UR Round and Doha Round in agriculture negotiation.
2. The paper further reviews the impact on agriculture sector in China of China’s accession to WTO. It takes comprehensive approach which include positive and negative sides to reveal the real impact on the sector, the main findings are the accession of China to WTO directly accessleates the liberalization of agriculture trade and plays positive role in nations economic development, though with some negative effect as well.
3. The paper then focus on the draft modalites impact on the agriculture sector in China along the line of pillars in WTO negotiation. On domestic support front, the auther figure out that the key to the national agriculture development policy will be the availablitiy of financial resources based on detailed support notification and mesarument. On market acces front, the auther establishes the agreed formula in the darft modalites to assess the impact on agriculture tariff in China and finds out that average tariff will be cut from 15.75% down to 10.38%, but some flexibilites like RAMs will increase the level to 12.34%. The paper studies SSM and SP as well.
4. The paper then reviews the impact of draft modalites on some key WTO members which includes US, EU, India and Brazil. The result shows that the real impact is limited and the extent to which the agriculture trade reform of Doha round is far from subsitiantial. The paper further review the main negotiation groups such as US, EC, G20,G10,G33 from respective negotiation position and interests, which leads to the analysis of negotiation strategy of China.
5. The paer also explores the analysis on agriculture support and protection development in China under theWTO framework from two prespective, the first is to proved negotiation strategy choice of China under multilateral framework, the second is to seek from national policy development which should be in line with WTO principle in agriculture sector in China, and propose a policy framework with four key principle of“support, protection,balance and promotion”Finally, the paper points out three areas the deserve futher study.
引文
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