摘要
中国正处于经济快速增长的时期,能源消耗和电力装机容量增加迅猛。基于可持续发展角度,从经济发展模式寻找能源消费的规律,以及由此产生的环境后果,以便做出实时的、合理的能源电力政策安排是十分必要的。论文围绕此主题进行了以下研究：
首先,论文基于趋势分析法对能源消费与经济、环境的关系进行了深入分析,运用微观经济学原理对能源消费的库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)进行研究,首次将其划分为5个阶段,并得出了中国能源消费发展的轨迹特征,指明中国能源消费仍然处在EKC左侧；论文对中国能源消费与环境指标进行了灰色关联分析,研究显示,若保持现有的经济发展模式下,能源的消费会伴随着经济发展继续大幅增加,而煤炭、石油消费的增加,会引起污染物的排放继续增加,环境有可能进一步恶化。
其次,论文以广东、上海和北京为例,分别运用因素分解法和自适应权重分解法对经济发展和能源消费的关系进行了结构和强度的分解分析。研究成果表明,近些年能源消费强度的下降主要归功于各产业部门能源强度的下降,尤其是第二产业能源密度的下降,而产业结构变化对能源密度下降贡献较小,且不稳定。
然后,为探明各行业在电力消费过程中CO2的排放,论文将行业划分为发电、工业(不包括发电)、交通运输业、民用和服务业以及其它行业五类,运用了AWD法对电力消费与CO2排放关系进行了分解。研究表明,近15年间,CO2的排放量大幅增加,但CO2排放强度却大幅降低了,主要原因是各行业CO2排放强度降低引起的,其中以民用和服务业最为明显,电力消费结构对总CO2排放强度的降低是反向作用。
论文选取了与电源结构有关的反映经济效应、环境效应和电力生产水平等指标,首次对2000年至2007年中国电源结构发展轨迹进行了综合评价与研究。研究显示,中国电源结构在逐步远离不可持续的临界点,靠近目标点,但发展的路径偏离最优可持续发展路径。
最后,论文创建了考虑环境约束、经济发展、资源约束和科技发展水平的电源结构多目标决策系统模型,并基于不同的优先原则和不同的排放绩效水平,对2010年、2015年的电源结构进行了情景分析,给出了2015年电源结构目标区间。论文还考虑CO2约束,对电源结构进行了优化,给出了CO2约束下的电源结构变化。
论文指明了中国能源发展的阶段性特点,电源的可持续水平,未来经济社会和环境的变化对电源结构影响,这对未来的能源政策的制定有重要的参考价值。
China's economy is experiencing a fast development period, and the GDP increases faster than the average speed worldwide. Moreover, the amount of energy consumption and power installed capacity are increasing rapidly. In order to make a practical and reasonable power strategy, it is necessary to find out rules of energy consumption in development pattern for economy, and the associated environmental consequences also need to be considered. Focusing on the subject above, studies of this thesis are shown as follows:
First, trends analysis on relationship between energy consumption and economy development, energy consumption and environment are made. The EKC curve for energy consumption is analyzed by principles of microeconomics. It is the first time that the EKC curve being divided into five parts. Paper draws the trajectory of the development of China's energy consumption characteristics; it is proved that China's energy consumption is still on the left of the EKC curve. China's energy consumption and environmental indicators are analyzed by Grey Relational Analysis. It is shown that that if the existing development pattern is maintained, the energy consumption would continue to increase considerably with the development of economy, and the growth of coal and oil consumption may causes increased discharge of pollutants. Thus, the environment is likely to deteriorate further.
Second, Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing are taken as examples in this thesis, and Factor Analysis Approach and Adaptive Weighting Division are used to make a decomposition analysis on the relation between economical development and energy consumption from the perspective of structure and intensity. It is proved that the intensity of energy consumption decreasing in recent years is largely due to the decrease of that in each industry department, while the decrease of energy density in secondary industry contributes a lot. However, the change of industrial structure contributes little in decreasing energy density, and it is unstable.
Third, in order to investigate the power consumption of various industries in the process of CO2 emissions, whole industry is divided into five parts, including power generation, industry (power generation is not included), transportation, civilian industry and service and others. The relation between power consumption and CO2 is analyzed by AWD method. The study suggests that CO2 emissions increase, but reduced CO2 emissions intensity nearly 15 years, the decrease of emission intensity of CO2 for each industry leads to a decrease of the whole intensity, especially that of civilian industry and service industry. However, the structure of power consumption plays a negative role on emission of CO2.
Indicators, which are related to power structure and reflect economic effects, environmental effects and power production levels, are taken to comprehensively evaluate and describe the development trace of China's power structure from 2000 to 2007 for the first time. It is shown that China's power structure is steadily moving away from the point of unsustainable but towards the target on the one hand, on the other hand, it is deviating from the optimal sustainable development path.
At last, by considering all of the factors above, a multi-objective decision system model for power construction is built. It is built up based on restraints of environment, economical development, restraints of resource and technology development. In addition, based on different principles of precedence and emission efficiency, power structures in 2010 and 2015 are analyzed by scenario analysis, and then the target zone of China's power structure in 2015 is given. By considering the restraint of CO2, power structures are optimized according to different principles of precedence and emission efficiency, and changes of power structure under the constraint of CO2 are provided.
Many points which have great reference value for formulating follow-up energy policy are pointed out in the thesis, such as characteristics in different stages for China's energy development, the sustainability of power and future economic, social and environmental impact on the power structure.
引文
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