摘要
R&D活动是整个科技活动的基础和核心,是衡量一个国家和地区科技发展水平、科技活动结构、科技投入程度和科技含量的重要指标,在科技创新活动中起着关键的作用。发达国家的经济发展经验表明,R&D投入是现代经济增长理论研究的重要元素,是经济发展的核心。
当前世界已进入后危机时代,后危机时代的经济发展离不开新兴产业的发展,目前以新能源为代表的产业革命已悄然兴起,新一轮的产业竞争已经来临。在寻找危机后引领全球经济发展的新技术和新的产业增长支柱都离不开R&D投入。可以说R&D投入对新一轮的经济发展有着至关重要的地位。目前,我国正处在经济发展方式转变的关键时期,R&D投入绩效及其对经济发展的贡献日益受到人们的关注。加大R&D投入、提升R&D投入绩效是建设创新型国家,增强科技竞争力的关键。然而一直以来,R&D投入强度指标并未能实现预期的一些目标,R&D投入绩效不理想,我国R&D投入尚不能有力地支持我国经济的持续快速发展。因此,加强R&D投入的绩效评价,制定并实施适应新形势下的经济社会发展的R&D投入战略,加强R&D资源合理配置与管理,提高R&D投入绩效,对加快中国经济发展方式的转变,提高中国经济发展的质量,增强中国国际竞争力具有十分重要的理论和实际意义。
本文从R&D投入绩效的基础理论和相关文献研究入手,系统分析了R&D投入绩效评价的内涵及其基本理论,从宏观、中观和微观层面对影响R&D投入绩效的因素进行了分析；构建了R&D投入绩效评价的指标体系和方法体系,形成了由R&D投入和R&D产出2个一级指标,R&D人员投入、R&D经费投入、R&D成果直接产出、R&D成果产出效率和经济社会效益产出5个二级指标以及R&D人员、R&D经费支出和专利申请受理量等24个三级指标组成的R&D投入绩效评价理论指标体系；接着分析了中国R&D投入产出的特点,尤其对中国R&D经费投入强度的的“S”形特点进行了Logisitic模型分析,在企业层面上运用最优尺度回归分析剖析了影响中国R&D投入绩效的因素；在对绩效评价的主要方法比较后,结合R&D投入绩效评价的特点,用因子分析、聚类分析和判别分析的组合方法评价了基于区域层面的R&D投入绩效、用DEA方法评价了基于产业层面的R&D投入绩效以及用系统动力学方法评价了基于宏观数据的R&D投入绩效；最后提出了提升中国R&D投入绩效的对策建议。
研究认为,R&D投入不足且投入区域和行业间存在较大差异,政府R&D投入的引导作用不够,基础研究、应用研究和试验发展的协同度不高,企业主导型的R&D投入模式尚未形成,知识产权评价与保护力度不够,全球化竞争加剧冲击R&D活动等因素制约和影响我国R&D投入绩效。为此,从投入、保障、合作以及监控等四个方面提出了提升中国R&D投入绩效的对策建议,不断加大R&D经费投入和人员投入的力度,一方面推进R&D经费投入方式的多元化以及结构的优化,另一方面实施R＆D高级人才的引进、培养和教育工作,提高R＆D人员投入；建立健全提升R&D投入绩效的保障体系,在强化政府对提升R&D投入绩效作用的同时,加强知识产权管理和保护的法律保障；积极开展国内外的R&D合作,不仅推进企业R&D主导,产学研合作的技术创新体系建设,而且推进国际R&D合作战略；重视R&D投入绩效评价,建立完善的绩效评价体系。
本文的创新之处主要有：
第一,本文界定了R&D投入绩效评价的内涵,全面系统的建立了R&D投入的绩效评价体系,拓展了R&D投入绩效评价的研究领域和方法应用。
第二,针对中国R&D投入的特点,对中国R&D投入强度的变化呈现“S”形,运用Logistic增长曲线模型进行分析,明确了中国R&D投入强度增长曲线变化的三个重要时点；采用最优尺度回归方法对江苏创新调研数据进行分析,模型显示R&D人员投入、R&D经费支出、企业规模大小以及企业创新意识等因素是影响R&D投入绩效的关键因素。
第三,在区域层面和产业层面对中国R&D投入绩效绩效评价中,有机地将因子分析、聚类分析、判别分析和DEA等方法组合优化；基于宏观数据,构建一个同中国R&D投入绩效实际较为吻合的系统动态仿真模型并应用于实践,动态预测了中国R&D投入绩效的变动,为把握未来绩效变化特点以及政策因素在变动中的作用提供了依据。
R&D activity is the foundation and core of all scientific and technological activities. It is also an important indicator to measure technological development level, the structure of scientific & technological activities, the extent of scientific and technological input, and scientific & technological content of a country and region. This indicator has played a key role in scientific and technological innovative activities. Experiences of developed countries in the economic growth have shown that R&D input is a vital element in the research of modern economic growth theory and the core of economic development.
The current world has entered the post-crisis era. The economic development in the post-crisis era must depend on the development of new industries. The industrial revolution represented by new energy has been under way and a new round of industrial competition has arrived. R&D input is essential for looking for new technologies and new industrial growth pillars to lead the global economic development after the crisis. R&D input has a crucial significance in the new round of economic development. At present, China is in the critical period of changing the economic development mode, so R&D input performance and its contribution to economic development have become an increasing concern. To increase R&D input and enhance R&D input performance is the key to building an innovative country and enhancing the scientific and technological competitiveness. However, R&D input intensity indicator failed to achieve the expected targets and R&D input performance is not satisfactory so that our R&D input can't strongly support China's sustained rapid development. Therefore, we should strengthen the performance evaluation on R&D input, to formulate and implement R&D input strategy adapted to the new situation of economic and social development, to strengthen the rational allocation and management of R&D resources, to enhance R&D input performance, which is of important theoretical and practical significance to accelerate the change of China's economic development pattern, improve the quality of China's economic development, and enhance China's international competitiveness.
This dissertation starts with the research on basic theories of R&D input performance and relevant literature, then systematically analyzes the connotation and basic theories of evaluating R&D input performance, especially making an analysis on factors influencing R&D input performance from the macro, meso and micro levels. It constructs the index system and methodological system of evaluating R&D input performance which consists of two first-grade indicators, five second-grade indicators and 24 third-grade indicators. The 2 first-grade indicators are R&D input and R&D output while the 5 second-grade indicators are R&D personnel input, R&D funds input, the direct output of R&D results, the output efficiency of R&D achievement and the economic and social benefit output of R&D achievement. The third-grade indicators include R&D personnel, R&D expenditure and the quantity of patent applications, etc. Then it analyzes the characteristics of China's R&D input & output, particularly using Logisitic model in the "S" shape characteristic of China's R&D fund input strength. At the enterprise level, factors influencing China's R&D input performance are analyzed by the optimal scaling regression analysis. After comparing the methods of performance evaluation and combining the characteristics of R&D input performance evaluation, it adopts the combined method which includes the factor analysis, cluster analysis and discriminant analysis to evaluate R&D input performance based on regional level. DEA method is applied to evaluate R&D input performance based on industry level and the system dynamics method is used to evaluate R&D input performance based on macroeconomic data. Finally, the countermeasures are put forward to enhance China's R&D input performance.
The dissertation suggests that R&D input is insufficient and there is obvious difference in the input regions and industries. The guidance of government R&D input is not enough and the collaborative degree among basic research, applied research and experimental development is not high. The enterprise-led model of R&D input has not yet formed and the evaluation and protection of intellectual property rights are inadequate. What's more, the intensifying competition of globalization also has an impact on R&D activities. All the above factors have affected and restricted R&D input performance. To this end, countermeasures are proposed to enhance China's R&D input performance from four aspects, that is, investment, protection, cooperation, and monitoring. The input of R&D fund and personnel should be increased. On one hand, we should promote the diversification of input manners and the input structural optimization of R&D fund. On the other hand, we should implement the introduction, training and education of R&D senior talents so as to improve the R&D personnel input. The security system of R&D input performance should be established and improved to strengthen the legal protection of managing and protecting the intellectual property while the government's role should be strengthened in enhancing R&D input performance. We should vigorously conduct R&D cooperation at home and abroad, not only to promote the establishment of technology innovation system with the enterprise R&D as the dominant factor and the cooperation of industry, academe and research institutes, but also to boost the international R&D cooperation strategies, put more emphasis on R&D input performance evaluation and to establish a sound performance evaluation system.
The innovation of this dissertation includes:
First, this dissertation defines the connotation of performance evaluation concerning R&D input, comprehensively establish the systematic R&D input performance evaluation system, and expand the research field and methodological application of R&D input performance evaluation.
Second, in view of the characteristics of China’s R&D input, Logistic growth curve model is used to analyze the"S" shape of China's R&D input intensity so as to clarify three important points in China's R&D input intensity. The optimal scaling regression method is applied to analyze the Jiangsu innovation survey data. The model shows that R&D personnel input, R&D expenditure, the enterprise scale and enterprise sense of innovation are key factors influencing the performance of R&D input.
Third, in the evaluation of China's R&D input performance from the regional level and industry level, the factor analysis, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, and DEA methods are organically optimized. Based on macroeconomic data, the system dynamic simulation model consistent with the actual situation of China's R&D input performance is built and applied in practice. Variation of China's R&D input is dynamically predicted so as to lay the foundation of grasp the characteristics of future performance changes and the roles of policy factors in the changes.
引文
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