摘要
20世纪80年代以来,全球变暖问题逐渐受到人们的普遍关注,实施碳减排、发展低碳经济以应对气候变化成为各国共识。近年来,陆地生态系统碳循环在国内外学术界进行了广泛和深入的研究,并取得了丰富的成果。根据相关研究报道,土地利用仅次于化石燃料燃烧成为大气中二氧化碳增加的重要原因。土地利用不仅是区域生态系统碳排放和碳吸纳的直接原因,而且作为空间载体间接影响区域人为源碳排放水平。但以往研究多从土地覆被变化和土地利用来测算碳排放效应,缺乏基于现行土地利用分类体系统筹自然源和人为源碳排放的整合研究；虽然低碳经济为土地可持续利用提供了新的发展思路,但是从低碳经济角度去综合评价和分析区域土地利用水平的相关研究很少；而且以低碳经济为导向优化区域土地利用结构,从而实现区域土地低碳和高效利用的研究更有待于探索。
因此,本文根据国内外土地利用碳排放的相关研究,整合估算了区域不同土地利用类型自然源和人为源碳排放,分析了1996-2010年武汉市土地利用碳排放和碳汇量,及其排放强度和区域差异,并分析其与经济发展的脱钩弹性,从土地利用效率、土地利用结构、经济增长和人口规模对其进行影响因素分解研究。在此基础上,尝试性构建了低碳经济导向的区域土地利用评价指标体系,采用Fuzzy-ANP方法对武汉市历年土地利用低碳水平进行了综合评价,并对评价结果进行贡献率、协调度、障碍度、有效性和驱动力分析。进而整合土地碳排放、土地经济效益和生态效益目标函数,设置高、中、低三种碳排放情景,采用多目标线性规划法提出了武汉市土地利用结构优化方案。最后分析了土地利用碳减排和效益提升潜力,并提出了相应的土地利用策略和政策建议。研究的主要内容如下：
(1)基于低碳经济与土地利用关系、土地利用碳减排现实需求提出了研究议题,并对国内外相关研究动态进行了综述。从土地利用碳减排相关概念、土地碳减排核算、土地利用评价相关研究、土地利用结构优化、土地利用碳减排对策等方面进行了系统归纳,并对国内外研究进展进行了评述,指出目前按照低碳经济要求所进行的区域土地利用研究和实践亟需系统理论的指导。
(2)按照现行理论和实践的需求,界定了低碳经济、土地利用碳排放、土地利用评价和土地利用结构优化的内涵,并梳理了可持续发展理论、生态经济学理论、系统科学理论和择优分配理论,为本文的研究奠定理论基础。并据此提出了低碳经济导向的区域土地利用系统分析,包括土地利用领域引入低碳经济理念的必要性、低碳经济对土地利用的导向作用、低碳经济导向的土地利用内涵和系统特点。
(3)按照不同土地利用类型综合测算了武汉市土地利用碳排放和碳汇量,进而得出武汉市土地利用净碳排放量。整体来看,武汉市土地利用碳排放呈逐年增加态势,从1996年的1906.45万吨增加到2010年的3269.86万吨,年均增长率为3.93%。地均碳排放强度和人均碳排放强度逐年增加,单位GDP碳排放强度逐年下降,而且武汉城市圈各城市土地利用碳排放时空差异较为明显。从土地利用碳排放与经济发展的脱钩弹性分析来看,主要以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主,但也出现了扩张连接和扩张负脱钩情况,目前来说武汉市土地利用碳排放的增速低于经济发展的增长速度。根据LMDI模型对武汉市土地利用碳排放的影响因素分解发现,1997-2010年与基期年相比,土地利用结构因素和土地利用效率因素一定程度上抑制了武汉市土地利用的碳排放,累计贡献率分别为1.50%和16.68%的碳减排,而经济发展因素和人口规模因素对土地利用碳排放具有较强的推动作用,累计贡献率分别为73.29%和21.53%的碳增量。
(4)根据低碳经济发展对土地利用的要求,遵循综合性、指导性、区域性、科学性和可行性原则,构建了土地投入水平、土地利用程度、土地产出效益、土地低碳水平和土地可持续性5个准则层,24个指标因子层的区域土地利用评价指标体系,采用Fuzzy-ANP方法构建评价模型进行测算。得出武汉市土地利用综合水平总体呈上升态势,但是发展水平仍然不高,具有较大改进潜力。从影响武汉市土地利用水平的内部指标贡献率和障碍因素来分析,土地投入水平、土地利用强度和土地产出效益贡献较大,而土地低碳水平和土地可持续性障碍度较大,另外从因子障碍度来看,目前地均碳排放、人均耕地和地均环保投资对城市土地利用水平障碍度较大。通过对武汉市历年土地投入产出的经济有效性分析,发现多数年份土地利用投入产出经济有效,但个别年份出现了建设用地和从业人员冗余与财政收入不足的情况。将影响区域土地利用水平的因素,按照经济发展、人口增加和社会进步进行组合测算驱动力,发现经济发展是城市土地利用水平提高的最关键因素,而社会进步是城市土地利用水平的重要控制因素。
(5)通过对武汉市2010年土地利用规划的碳排放总量估算,发现与2010年现状土地利用相比具有一定碳减排效果,但减排效果不够明显。因而以低碳经济为目标,整合区域土地利用碳排放、土地利用经济效益和土地利用生态效益目标函数,按照规划要求、经济发展、粮食安全和生态保护要求建立约束条件,并设置高、中、低三种土地利用碳排放情景,运用LINGO软件进行模型求解,根据方案对比和分析,选择中碳排放型规划方案为满意解。按照满意解调整土地利用结构,碳排放总量将比原规划目标减少118.45万吨,经济效益减少341.31亿元,生态效益增加2.86亿元,基本满足2020年武汉市经济发展、粮食保护和生态安全的需求。
(6)按照武汉市土地利用类型分类,分耕地、林地、园地、其它农用地、建设用地、未利用地等,分析其利用潜力、碳减排效应、经济效益、生态效益和利用对策。其中土地利用结构优化的潜力最大,而建设用地规模控制、植树造林和其它利用和管理方式的碳减排也应引起重视。从土地碳减排、碳增汇和效益提升分别提出子土地低碳利用对策。土地利用碳减排包括农用地和建设用地碳减排、结构优化和碳排放征税；土地利用碳增汇包括林地和湿地碳增汇、转变用地方式和碳增汇补偿；土地利用效益提升可以从集约节约用地、完善土地利用市场、推进土地整治和加强生态保护入手。
(7)结论和讨论,对全文进行了归纳和总结,并指出了现有研究的不足和对未来相关研究的展望。
Since the1980s, people gradually pay attention to the issue of global warming, so implementation the reduction of carbon emission and development of low-carbon economy to tackle climate change become a national consensus. According to relative research reports, land use is the second important reason for the increase of CO2in the atmosphere which only lower than the combustion of fossil fuels. In recent years, the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystem has carry out extensive and intensive research at home and abroad, and achieved fruitful results. However, land use is not only the direct cause for carbon emission and carbon absorb of regional ecosystem, but also as a space carrier influence the carbon emission levels of regional anthropogenic sources. But previous studies almost measure the effect of carbon emissions from land cover change and land-use, seldom integrate research the co-ordination of natural and anthropogenic sources of carbon emissions based on existing land use classification system. Although the low-carbon economy provide new development ideas for sustainable land use, the comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the level of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land use is little. Moreover, the research about the structure optimization of low-carbon economy-oriented land use to achieve the low-carbon and efficient regional land use need explored.
Therefore, according to the related research about carbon emissions of land use at home and abroad, it integrated estimate the carbon emissions of natural and anthropogenic sources base on different land use types, and calculate the carbon emissions and carbon sinks as well as its emissions intensity and regional differences of land use in Wuhan City from1996-2010. Then analyze the decoupling elasticity between carbon emissions of land use and economic development, and decomposite the influencing factors which including land use efficiency, land use structure, economic growth and population size. On this basis, it try to build evaluation index system of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land use, Fuzzy-ANP method was used to evaluate the level of low-carbon land use in Wuhan City, and it also analysis the contribution rate, coordination degree, barriers, effectiveness and driving force of the evaluation results. Thus it integrated of land carbon emissions, the economic benefits and ecological benefits objective function of regional land use, and set high, medium and low carbon emission scenarios, the multi-objective linear programming method was proposed to optimizate land use structure of Wuhan City. Finally, it analysis the carbon emission reduction of land use and efficiency improvement potential, and put forward corresponding land use strategy and policy recommendations. The main contents are as follows:
(1) Based on the relationship between low-carbon economy and land use, and the practical needs of carbon reduction of land-use, it proposed research issues, and reviewed the related study dynamic at home and abroad, which including the concept of carbon emissions of land use, the calculate of land carbon emission, land evaluation, land use structure optimization, carbon emission reduction measures of land use, and the research advances have been reviewed, it pointed out that regional land use study and practice, wich in accordance with the requirements of the low-carbon economy, need systems theory.
(2) According to the needs of current theory and practice, it defines the low-carbon economy, carbon emissions of land use, land-use evaluation and optimization of land use structure. And analyze the theory of sustainable development, ecological economics, system science and merit-based allocation, that can make theoretical basis for this study. Finally, it puts forward systems analysis of low-carbon economy-oriented regional land use, which including the need for land use study introduce the concept of low-carbon economy, the guiding role of the low-carbon economy for land use, and the connotation and system features of low-carbon economy-oriented land use.
(3) It comprehensively calculated the carbon emissions and carbon sinks of land use in accordance with the different land use types in Wuhan City, and then got the net carbon emissions of land use in Wuhan City. Overall, the carbon emissions of land use increased year by year in Wuhan City, From19,064,500tons in1996to32,698,600tons in2010; the average annual growth rate is3.93%. The intensity of carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita increased year by year, but the carbon emissions per GDP decreased year by year, furthermore, the spatial and temporal differences of carbon emissions of land use in Wuhan megalopolis are obvious. From the perspective of the decoupling elastic analysis of carbon emissions of land use and economic development, it mainly appeared weak decoupling and strong decoupling, but there have been expansion access and expansion negative decoupling, now the growth rate of land use carbon emissions is lower than economic development in Wuhan City. According to the decomposition of impact factors of land use carbon emissions in Wuhan City and LMDI model, compared with the base year, the structural factors and efficiency factors of land use to some extent inhibited carbon emissions from land use in Wuhan City, The cumulative contribution rate of carbon emission reduction are1.50%and16.68%, respectively. While economic factors and demographic factors have a strong role in promoting land use carbon emissions, the cumulative contribution rate of the carbon increment were73.29%and21.53%, respectively.
(4) According to the development requirements of low-carbon economy to land use, followed the general principles of guidance, regional, scientific and feasible, it build5criteria layer which including the level of land use input, land use intensity, land use output, land use efficiency, low carbon and sustainability of land use, the evaluation index system of regional land use contain24indicators factor layer, and using Fuzzy-ANP method to construct evaluation model and estimate. The paper obtained that comprehensive level of Land use in Wuhan City has an upward trend, but the level of development is still not high, has a large potential for improvement. Analyzed the contribution rate and the obstacles factors from the impact of the internal indicators of the land use level in Wuhan City, the level of land use input, land use intensity and land output efficiency have larger contribution, the low carbon level and sustainability of land use have larger obstacle. In addition to view the obstacles degree of factor, carbon emissions per area land, arable land per capita, environmental protection investment per area land have greater degree obstacles. From analysing the effectiveness of economic input-output of land use in Wuhan City, economic input-output of land use is effective in most years, but in very few years, it showed redundant of construction land and labor input and evenue shortage. Then divided the factors that affect the regional land use level into economic development, population growth and social progress, combine above factors to estimate driving force, we can found that economic development is the most critical factor to improve the urban land use level, while social progress is an important controlling factor for the urban land use level.
(5) Through estimating the total carbon emissions of land use based on land-use planning in Wuhan City in2010, it has certain carbon emission reduction effect, compared with the current land use in2010, but the reduction effect is not obvious. Thus take low-carbon economy as target, integrate carbon emissions of regional land use, economic and eco-efficiency of land use objective function, according to the plans, economic development, food security and ecological protection requirements to establish constraints, set high, medium, and low carbon emission scenarios of land-use, and use LINGO software to solve it, at last select the carbon emissions plan for a satisfactory solution. The land-use structure adjusted based on the satisfactory result, compared with original plan, the total carbon emissions decrease1.18million tons, economic benefits decrease34.131billion Yuan, and ecological benefits increase286million Yuan, it basically meet the needs of the economic development, food and ecological protection of Wuhan City in2020.
(6) The land use potential, carbon reduction effect, economic benefits, ecological benefits and corresponding countermeasures of land use, which contains arable land, forestland, orchard land, other agricultural land, construction land and unused land, that in accordance with the type classification of land use in Wuhan City, have been analyzed. The structure optimization of land use has greatest potential; the carbon emission reduction should also pay attention to the scale control of construction land, afforestation and management methods. Then the low-carbon land use measures have been put forward from perspective of carbon emission reduction, adding carbon sinks and improving efficiency of land use. Carbon emissions reduction of land use including agricultural and construction land use strategies, structural optimization and carbon emissions tax. Adding carbon sinks of land use including forestland and wetland use strategies, changes land use pattrerns and compensation of adding carbon sinks. The efficiency improvement of land use including intensive land use, improving the land use market, promoting land remediation and strengthening ecological protection.
(7) It is conclusion and prospect. It summarizes the whole paper, points out the inadequacies of the existing research and prospects the future research directions.
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