摘要
价值评估问题是风险投资所面临的核心问题,而风险投资价值的核心是预期公允价值。本文对预期公允价值的定义是:基于对风险资本市场未来发展的预期,通过对创业企业静态价值、风险投资协同价值的合理分析和判断,预测风险投资所持有创业企业金融工具1未来在风险资本市场上易于变现的价格。预期公允价值主要取决于创业企业自身所具备发展潜力、投融资双方的协同及努力程度、未来风险资本市场的发展预期及合同的可执行程度等因素,对预期公允价值估值必然涉及创业企业发展全过程。同时,考虑到风险投资价值的实现需要相关法律制度的保障,而人文特征、法律制度及产权性质差异等都会对价值的实现产生本质的影响。因此,本文将在比较中西方人文特征、法律制度差异和分析产权的经济特征基础上,借鉴国内外已有相关研究成果,运用传统金融、公司金融及企业价值等相关理论知识,针对创业企业价值演变全过程,展开对我国风险投资价值评估体系的研究。
本文的核心观点是:风险投资的价值观是企业价值、协同价值和退出价值的融合,其价值视角必须贯穿着创业企业成长全过程,除了关注评估对象本身所具备基本价值外,还注重评估对象价值实现途径与风险投资资源之间的融合度及未来风险资本市场的价值取向。传统价值评估的过程本质上是一个在相对确定价值基础上的价格发现过程。而风险投资价值评估本质上是一个价格相对确认基础上的价值不断发现过程。“价格相对确定”指风险投资对其投资退出收益具有非常刚性的约束,对不同阶段项目的投资往往都会要求创业团队有明确的相应的收益承诺并通过合同安排进行相应的保障,这是其价值评估隐含的基础和前提;“价值不断发现”指风险投资对象未来发展大多具有高度不确定性,其未来发展空间取决于投融资双方的协同努力,需要在未来变化的环境中不断挖掘和发现。因此,风险投资价值评估是是一个动态价值评估过程,是一个价值不断发现过程,其核心就是一定环境条件下不断评估所发现创业企业价值对其“相对确定价格”的支撑程度。如果其价值明显不能支持未来预期价格,投资行为将被适时终止。
风险投资价值评估具有很强的主观性,价值评估决策偏差广泛存在,从而存在对朝失败方向发展创业企业追加投资的行为。风险投资价值评估不仅体现在投资前决策,还体现在对投资过程中的契约安排及投资后的契约执行力评估,管理团队及风险投资的承诺水平、风险投资资源协同能力和资本运作能力及未来风险资本市场的发展预期都对创业企业预期公允价值评估产生重要影响。风险投资通常并不希望创业企业完全公开其内部财务信息,而是利用其尽职调查来弥补公开财务信息的不足,即风险投资通常充分利用市场失灵,借助其专业优势来获取超额利润。风险投资一直试图辨别并理解那些可能威胁投资的风险因素,从第一次阅读商业计划书至退出,他们所面临的挑战是确定并分离被投资公司所面临的最重要的风险,尤其在早期的创业企业中,对风险的感知很大程度上取决于勇气和经验,而与理性和理论恰恰相反。Holger Erchinger和Thomas A Rowles(2006)2认为:就风险投资价值评估而言,它更像一门艺术而非精确的科学,它更依重于判断而非事实,它更多地依靠市场分歧和市场机会而非单纯技术本身的价值,它的艺术性就在于对将来的判断和预测。
随着我国鼓励发展风险投资以支持科技创新相关产业政策的出台及创业板市场的即将推出,我国风险投资发展的前景极为广阔。在面临巨大行业机会的同时,我们必须清醒地认识到,由于对风险投资运作本质和规律的认识不足以及对相关概念认知的偏差,我国风险投资价值评估相关研究一直偏重于对“理性和理论”的研究,而忽视了“勇气和经验”这一艺术性特质在风险投资价值评估中所起的重要作用,在制约相关研究理论与实践深入结合的同时,也严重制约了我国风险投资产业的健康发展,因此,加紧对风险投资价值评估的理论和模式研究,在“勇气和经验”基础上建立起一个明晰确定的并适应于我国风险投资市场特点的价值衡量体系,顺应“发现价值”投资价值评估体系,具有较大的理论及现实意义。本文共分为九个部分,各章内容安排如下:
第一章为导论部分。本章是对本文写作背景、主体思想、观点及结构的总体概括。首先通过对国内外风险投资发展现状分析,指出了本文的研究背景及目的;其次按照本文研究的流程,以框图方式阐述了本文研究的思路及结构;第三提出了本文的研究对象、主要内容、观点及拟解决的关键问题;第四指出了本文的主要研究方法、理论基础、创新与不足等内容。
第二章是风险投资价值评估含义及本文界定部分。本章在对创业企业价值构成及演变过程分析基础上,指出创业企业起初价值由隐性价值和显性价值构成,而在创业初期隐性价值占据主导地位,并随着创业企业的发展不断显性化;同时,通过对风险投资运作特点的分析,指出风险投资具有发现价值、创造价值及实现价值的特征,并确立了风险投资价值的核心是“预期公允价值”这一本文内核。
第三章是风险投资价值评估相关研究综述部分。本章对国内外风险价值评估的主流理论、方法及指标体系进行了系统综述研究,并结合笔者自身对国内外风险投资运作理论及实践的理解和认识,提出了风险投资价值评估偏差客观存在,合同的执行力及承诺水平是预期价值实现的重要影响因素等观点。文章最后指出了当前我国风险投资价值评估研究存在的主要问题,目的是为本文风险投资价值评估体系研究奠定坚实的理论基础。
第四章是风险投资价值评估理论及方法确定部分。本章在对创业企业成长不同约束条件和经济特征属性的分析基础上,结合对风险投资风险特征及经济特征深入分析,指出了风险投资价值评估具有主观性、渐进性及不完全性等经济特征。同时,借鉴波特的价值链理论,提出了发现价值、创造价值及实现价值这一风险投资价值评估价值链理论,确定了包含发现价值、创造价值、实现价值及价值补偿机制在内的总体评估体系模型,并在此模型基础上借助包括实物期权等理论方法展开对模型价值构成具体评估方法的研究。
第五章是风险投资价值评估发现价值研究部分。一方面,本章探讨了项目来源对风险投资价值评估准确性及运作成本的影响,指出了良好的项目来源可以有效提升项目评估的准确性并降低评估成本。同时,根据笔者的实际工作经验,结合国外风险投资机构筛选的基本原则,从市场、技术、资金、地理位置、管理团队及盈利模式六个方面研究了影响项目筛选的主要因素,提出了确定良好项目来源的简单准则;另一方面,本章沿着创业企业生存能力和竞争能力两条主线,在借鉴相关学者提出观点基础上,建立了以创新性、价值性、持续性、稀缺性、非占有性及管理柔性为指标体系的静态价值评估模型。本文提出的静态价值评估模型由创新性单元、价值性单元、持续性单元及柔性单元构成,并借助了反馈系统原理及相关评估线索对各单元逻辑结构、信号输出及评估方法进行了深入的分析,最后得出了风险投资关注的九种创业企业基本模板。
第六章是风险投资价值评估创造价值研究部分。本章主要在风险投资评估创业企业具备的静态价值基础上,通过对风险投资提供协同作用评估确定创业企业未来可能成长空间,更多体现了风险投资提供增值服务所带来的创造价值功能。为了更好说明创业企业的成长性价值,本章引入实物期权概念对创业企业成长性价值进行了研究,并构建了适合于创业企业成长性价值评估方法和模型。
第七章是风险投资价值评估实现价值研究部分。本章在对创业企业协同价值评估基础上,通过对风险投资收益预期分析基础上,结合对风险投资资本运作能力的评估分析,并考虑当前及未来风险资本市场的发展趋势,判断创业企业未来可能退出方式及市场公允价值,从而确定风险投资所持有金融工具未来退出的可能公允价格(价值)。
第八章是风险投资价值评估补偿机制研究部分。本章在创业企业未来公允价值估计基础上,根据风险投资价值评估具有主观性、渐进性和不完全性的特点,为了协调投融资双方对价值认识的分歧,促进双方更好地努力工作,需要建立合理的价值评估补偿机制。而合理的补偿机制必须具备债权和股权双重特性,在经营不善时由创业团队向投资者让渡权益,在经营非常好时,由投资者向管理团队让渡权益。文章最后通过对一个简单的风险投资通常采用的“对赌协议”案例分析得出,附带其它权益的优先股和可转换公司债是风险投资比较好的投资金融工具,可以起到动态的良好的价值补偿作用。
第九章是本文结论部分。本章总结了本文的研究结论及需要进一步研究的问题。
Value-evaluation is the core focus of venture capital; in addition, the core of venture capital value is the expected fair value. This essay define the expected fair value as: the easily cashable price of growth enterprise’s financing tools held by venture capital in future venture capital market that is forecasted by analyzing and estimating the static value and cooperating value of enterprises based on the expectation of future venture capital market. Basing on this value basic, the core viewpoint of this thesis is that the hypostasis of value-evaluation of venture capital is a process to continuously discover values based on a relatively certain price.“A relatively certain price”means that venture capital has a very rigid restriction on its investment return at the stage of capital-withdraw; it requires a contract arrangement signed with top management of the growth enterprise that guarantees the promise of investment return; this is the precondition and basic contained of value-evaluation.“To continuously discover values”means that the future developments of venture capital’s objects are mostly uncertain; their future developing potential and space are determined by the cooperating efforts of both investor party and financing party, and the values needed to be continuously discovered in future changing environment. Consequently, value-evaluation of venture capital is a dynamic process and a process to continuously discover value; its core is to continuously evaluate the degree that the value of the growth enterprise supports its“relatively certain price”. If the value is obviously unable to sustain future expected price, investment dealing may be terminated.
Value-evaluation of venture capital has strong subjectivity, warps commonly exist, thus, investors may add investments on the growth enterprises that are on the frustrated developing directions. Value-evaluation of venture capital is not only based on the pre-investment decisions, but also based on contractual arrangement in the investment process, evaluation about contractual implementation, level of promise of management group and venture capital, abilities of cooperation on resources and capital operation, and forecasting for future venture capital market, those factors all have significant impacts on the evaluation of fair value. Venture capital is less likely to hope the enterprises completely disclose their internal finance information; it applies duteous-investigation-report to offset the lack of finance information; that is, venture capital uses its professional advantages to gain excess profits while market fails. Venture capital all long tries to identify and understand the risk-factors that may threaten the investment; from the time first viewing business plan to withdraw capital after investment, its major challenge is to identify and separate any important risks of the growth enterprises invested; especially those enterprises at early-developing-stage, mostly rely on experiences and courage to understand risks rather than rational theories and methods. Holger Erchinger & Thomas A Rowles(2006)3 indicate that value-evaluation of venture capital is more likely to be a type of arts rather than a exact science; it relies more on estimations rather than facts; it relies more on market analysis and opportunities rather than simple technique; its art characteristics is the estimation and forecasting for future.
China’s government encourages venture capital for supporting tech-innovation and relevant industrial policies & Growth enterprise market will be established soon; China’s venture capital market potential is significantly wide. At the time facing huge industrial opportunity, we must clearly understand that venture-capital-research lays particular stress on“theories & logos”all long but ignores the art-characteristics of“courage and experiences”that has significant effects for value-evaluation of venture capital; this is due to warping understanding and the lack of comprehension about the hypostasis, rules, and relevant concepts of value-evaluation of venture capital. This problem restricts the integration between theory and practice and also rigidly restricts the improvement of China’s venture capital. Consequently, press on with the researches on theory and mode of value-evaluation of venture capital, establish a clear and effective value- scale-system based on“courage and experiences”that fits for the market characteristics of China’s venture capital, conform with investment value-evaluation-system of“value discovery”, have theoretical and practical meanings.
This thesis contains eight chapters. Content of each chapter is organized as below:
Chapter 1 is guide & introduction of this thesis. It is a summary of background, thesis statement, and structure of this thesis. Firstly, it points out the background and purposes of this research through situation analysis of domestic & foreign venture capital development. Secondly, following the research process of this thesis, it uses tables & charts to express the structure and thoughts of this research. Thirdly, it indicates research object, main contents, viewpoint of this thesis, and the key problems needed to be solved. Fourthly, it indicates major research methods, theoretical foundation, innovation, disadvantages, and so on.
Chapter 2 defines value-evaluation of venture capital and the demarcation of this thesis. It bases on the analysis about value-components and their changing process of growth enterprises, and it indicates that growth enterprise’s initial value contains both dominant and recessive values; at the beginning stage of growth enterprise, recessive value stands for the leading status, however it continuously turns to be dominant as enterprises develop. Simultaneity, through analyzing the operating characteristics of venture capital, it indicates that venture capital has the characteristics of value discovery, value creation, and value implementation; it ascertains the core viewpoint of this thesis is that the“expected fair value”is the core value of venture capital.
Chapter 3 is the summary part of relevant researches about value-evaluation of venture capital. It summarizes the major theories, methods, and measurement system of domestic and foreign venture-capital-value-evaluation, integrates the author’s experiences and understandings of domestic and foreign venture capital operations and methods, indicates that windage objectively exists in value-evaluation of venture capital, and contractual implementation & promissory level are the important influencing factors for the expected value. At the end of this thesis, it indicates the major problems of today’s value-evaluation research of venture capital in China, the purpose is to establish an effective theoretical foundation for value-evaluation of venture capital.
Chapter 4 is the confirmation part for the theories and methods about value-evaluation of venture capital. It analyzes different restrained situations and economic attributes of growth enterprises, integrates the characteristics and economic attributes of venture capital in order to deeply analyze, and indicates that value-evaluation of venture capital has the economic characteristics of subjectivity, evolution, and imperfection. According to Potter’s value-chain theory, it indicates value-chain theory of venture capital that combines value discovery, value creation, and value implementation, and establishes an entire evaluation-system-mode including value discovery, value creation, value implementation, and compensation mechanism; in addition, it applies various methods based on the mode, including physical option, to research on the evaluation-methods about each element of the value-chain.
Chapter 5 is the research part about value discovery within the value-evaluation process of venture capital. It discusses that the influences caused by project sources on veracity and operating cost of value-evaluation of venture capital, indicates that well project sources may improve veracity of project-evaluation and reduce evaluation cost. Moreover, consider six major influencers for project-choosing, including market, technique, capital, geographic location, management group, and profit mode; it also indicates simple rules for well project sources. On the other hand, this chapter follows two major key-lines, competitive capabilities and survival abilities of enterprises, based on the viewpoints indicated by related professionals, forms the static-value-evaluation-system-mode and this system contains creativity, valuability, durative, scarcity, non-occupancy, and flexible management. It indicates that static-value-evaluation-mode is composed of innovative unit, valuability unit, durative unit, and flexible unit; this mode use feedback principle and relevant evaluation keys to deeply analyze logic structure of each unit, signal-output, and evaluation method; finally educes the basic mode of nine types of growth enterprises observed by venture capital.
Chapter 6 is the research part about value creation within the value-evaluation process of venture capital. This chapter bases on a foundation: those growth enterprises, which are evaluated by venture capital, have static values; then through supporting the cooperating effects on venture capital in order to determine future developing potential of those growth enterprises and to embody that venture capital’s addition services carry out the functions for value creation. For the purpose of better explaining the growing value of enterprises, this chapter applies the concepts of physical option to research on the growing value of enterprises; furthermore, it also builds a growing-value-evaluation-method and mode for growth enterprises.
Chapter 7 is the research part about value implementation within the value-evaluation process of venture capital. This chapter bases on a foundation that is to evaluate the cooperating value of growth enterprises, through analyzing the expected return of venture capital, combines with evaluation and analysis about the capital-operating ability of venture capital, considers present and future developing trends of venture capital market, estimates the methods of withdraw and market fair values of growth enterprises in the future, in order to determine the possible fair price (value) of the financing tool possessed by venture capital.
Chapter 8 is the research part about compensation mechanism of the value-evaluation process of venture capital. This chapter bases on the future fair value of the growth enterprises, and value-evaluation of venture capital has characteristics of subjectivity, evolution, and imperfection; for corresponding divergence of value understanding between investment party and financing party, enhancing better efforts of the two parties, it is necessary to establish a reasonable compensation mechanism for value-evaluation. Furthermore, a reasonable compensation mechanism must have two major specialities: creditor's rights & share option. If the firm invested runs illy, management group transfer rights & interests to investors; on the other hand, if the firm operates very well, investors transfer rights & interests to management group. Finally, this chapter analyzes a simple case of“Valuation Adjustment Mechanism”used by venture capital, and educes that the transferable company debts and the preference shares which are attached with other rights & interests are relatively effective financial tools for venture capital, and it may play an important rule for dynamic and well value-compensation.
Chapter9 is the research conclusion of this thesis.
引文
1风险投资通常采用股权或准股权方式对创业企业进行投资,准股权主要指可转换公司债、优先股等。
2 Erchinger;Thomas A Rowles,‘Valuation of Private Equity Targets’, Valuation Strategies; Mar/Apr 2006;9, 4;ABI/INFORM Global.
3风险投资通常采用股权或准股权方式对创业企业进行投资,准股权主要指可转换公司债、优先股等。
2 Erchinger;Thomas A Rowles,‘Valuation of Private Equity Targets’, Valuation Strategies; Mar/Apr 2006;9, 4;ABI/INFORM Global.
4 http://cpc.people.com.cn/
5 http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
6 http://www.safe.gov.cn/
7《化解科技成果产业化的体制制约》,http://cpc.people.com.cn/
8将风险投资筹资和退出阶段放在国外,而将投资和管理阶段放在国内,保障资金的有效投入与退出。
9王庆成,“财务管理目标的思索”,《会计研究》,1999,(10)
10刘贵生、杨碧玲,“财务管理目标的再思索”,《财经理论与实践》,2000,(7)
11陈艳芸,“企业价值的战略涵义”,《大连理工大学学报》,2000,(1)
12参见张春霖著,《企业组织与市场体制》,上海三联书店,1999
13 1931年,英国的国会议员麦克米伦提出了中小企业发展过程中存在资金缺口,但传统的金融解决不了其融资难问题,后来人们把这个问题称为“死亡之谷”,又称“迈克米仑缺口”,美国人称为“权益沟壑”。
14张陆洋,《谈民营科技企业与VC的对接问题——复旦大学中国风险投资研究中心主任张陆洋博士》,中国改革报。
15 Ross a s.Uses, Abuse and the Alternative to the Net-present-value Rule[J]. Financial management.1995,24(3)96-102
16 Pareto, V.. (1896).‘The New Theories of Economics.’Journal of Political Economy 5.
17 Zider, B. (1998).‘How venture capital works. The discipline of innovation.’Harvard Business Review76(6):131-139.
18资料来源:《国际私人权益和风险投资定价准则》。
19资料来源:《资本市场的混沌与秩序》(第二版),P167-169,[美]埃德加.E.彼得斯著,王小东译,经济科学出版社。
20资料来源:《资本市场的混沌与秩序》(第二版),P36-38,[美]埃德加.E.彼得斯著,王小东译,经济科学出版社。
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