摘要
贸易收支平衡对一国外贸发展至关重要,过大的贸易顺差或贸易逆差均不利于对外贸易持续稳定增长。自1994年以来逐年累积的巨额贸易顺差使我国面临日益增多的国际贸易摩擦和巨大的人民币升值压力。影响贸易收支平衡的因素十分复杂,其中,汇率主要通过价格因素直接影响一国的进出口,还通过外国直接投资(FDI)间接影响一国的进出口,进而影响贸易收支;而利率除通过汇率途径影响贸易收支外,还会通过外贸企业融资成本途径影响进出口,从而影响贸易收支。汇率和利率对贸易收支影响的复杂性就使得双率协调对于保持贸易收支平衡稳定增长显得尤为重要。2007年以来,人民币汇率和利率同时升值,导致我国外贸出口和贸易收支大幅度下滑,中国人民银行的货币政策调控措施也引起部分学者的质疑。因此,研究“双率”(汇率和利率)的组合调整对一国的贸易收支产生怎样的影响,在当前全球经济衰退的背景下,如何利用“双率”政策组合有效促进我国外贸的稳定发展和贸易收支的适度平衡,既有理论价值,更具重要的现实意义。
论文围绕人民币双率调整与我国贸易收支平衡调控,从理论和实证两个层面展开研究,全文由8章组成。第1章导论,概述了研究意义、研究思路和论文的结构安排。第2章就“汇率变动、利率变动影响贸易收支,贸易收支平衡调控”的相关研究进行了文献综述;第3章概要介绍了改革开放以来人民币“双率”调整的协调性与贸易收支的变化;第4章首先从微观视角将企业出口产品的生产成本构成要素归为劳动力工资成本、生产投入品价格成本和资本利息成本,通过构建企业利润最大化模型,求解企业出口价格和国内市场销售价格的要素成本函数,并通过企业的加总求和推导出一个行业和一国的出口影响因素,从微观视角全面分析了影响一国进出口的主要因素。其次,通过进出口方程的理论模型分析影响一国不同行业、不同市场竞争结构产品出口的主要因素,推论汇率和利率变动对一国贸易收支产生的不同影响,从而在理论层面分析了“双率”变动对贸易收支的影响。第5章从一国出口需求与供给均衡、进口需求与供给均衡的视角出发,推导出一国贸易收支影响因素的实证方程,利用协变模型实证分析了人民币汇率和利率变动对我国贸易收支总量、国别贸易收支和商品类别贸易收支的影响。第6章引入外国直接投资变量,通过建立理论模型证明汇率、利率、贸易收支和外国直接投资变动之间的循环传导机理。实证分析了在外国直接投资的传导路径下,人民币汇率和利率变动对我国贸易收支产生的影响,并与没有外国直接投资传导时的双率变动的相关影响进行对比分析。第7章在5、6两章实证分析的基础上,通过对传统的DD-AA模型和TB模型的拓展,研究并探讨了促进我国外贸的稳定发展和贸易收支的适度平衡的人民币“双率”政策组合。
论文的主要结论:(1)贸易收支与相对国民收入水平、人民币汇率、人民币相对利率、劳动力相对工资、生产投入品相对价格成反比,与外国直接投资成正比,各变量对贸易收支的影响大小依次为相对国民收入水平、人民币汇率、外国直接投资、人民币相对利率、劳动力相对工资和生产投入品相对价格。(2)人民币“双率”变动对贸易顺差国的影响要大于对逆差国的影响,对竞争性越强的商品类别的贸易收支影响越大。(3)“双率”升值时,加工贸易型外国直接投资对一国贸易收支的下降有缓冲作用;“双率”贬值时,短期内外国直接投资对贸易收支额下降有缓冲作用,长期则有放大效应,外国直接投资在“双率”变动时均能起到缓冲贸易收支波动的作用。(4)在当前世界经济衰退背景下,促进我国贸易收支平衡发展必须在下调人民币“双率”的同时,注重双松型货币政策与财政政策的搭配,政策实施重点应放在对我国贸易收支贡献较大的机电行业、轻工业和纺织服装业。
本文的创新之处:(1)研究了“双率”变动对贸易收支的影响。从微观视角将企业出口产品的生产成本构成要素分解为劳动力工资成本、生产投入品价格成本和资本利息成本,通过构建企业利润最大化模型,得到企业产品出口定价模型。利用出口供需均衡和进口供需均衡条件,将产品出口价格的影响变量纳入一国贸易收支方程中,实证分析人民币汇率和利率变动如何影响我国贸易收支,较之过去仅研究汇率对贸易收支的影响更加完善合理。(2)研究了“双率”变动情况下,加工贸易型外国直接投资对一国贸易收支有平衡稳定增长作用。将外国直接投资作为一国进口需求和出口供给的主体变量纳入一国贸易收支影响因素的实证方程,通过研究“双率”变动对其在长短期的不同影响,发现加工贸易型外国直接投资在“双率”变动时都有缓冲贸易收支波动的作用(“双率”升值时,外国直接投资对贸易收支的下降有缓冲作用,“双率”贬值时,短期内外国直接投资对贸易收支额下降有缓冲作用,长期则有放大效应)。(3)研究了“双率”调整对产品市场均衡、货币市场均衡和贸易收支均衡的动态调整作用,探讨了在全球经济衰退背景下保持我国贸易收支平衡稳定增长的“双率”协调政策及其实施重点。利用实证分析结果中“双率”对贸易收支有实际影响这一结论对传统的DD模型(产品市场均衡)和TB模型(贸易收支均衡模型)进行拓展修正;利用货币分析法,将一国的货币供给分为国内基础货币供给和主要由外国直接投资和贸易收支产生的外汇储备货币供给两个组成部分,对传统的AA模型(货币市场均衡)进行拓展,并将上述三个拓展模型纳入同一个框架分析一国宏观经济内外均衡,较之过去那些不考虑利率影响贸易收支及外汇储备供给影响货币市场均衡的相关分析更为合理。
Trade Balance of Payments is essential for a country's foreign trade development. Neither excessive trade surplus nor trade deficits are conducive to sustained and stable growth of foreign trade. Every year since 1994, for the accumulated trade surplus China is facing more and more trade friction, so that the pressure of RMB's appreciation is increasing. Factors that affect the trade balance are very complex, in which the exchange rate affect a country's imports and exports not only directly through price channels, but also indirectly through foreign direct investment (FDI) channels, and thereby affecting the balance of trade. Interest rates can affect the trade balance not only through exchange rate channel but also through channel of financing cost, and thus affecting the balance of trade. The complexity of exchange rates and interest rates' impact on the trade balance makes the coordination of dual-rate particularly important to maintain the steady growth of trade balance.
Since 2007, the RMB exchange rate and interest rates rise at the same time, resulting in China's foreign trade exports and trade balance fell significantly, monetary policy control measures made by the People's Bank of China thus induced some scholars question. Thus, to know what impact the "double rate" (the exchange rate and interest rates) coordination on a country's trade balance, and thus how to make use of the policy portfolio to promote the stability of China's foreign trade development and the appropriate balance of trade balance is of both theoretical value, and of more important practical significance under the current global economic recession.
The paper is written from theoretical and empirical levels around the RMB "double rate" adjustment and China's trade balance control, the full text is composed of 8 Chapters. Chapter 1 is Introduction, provides an overview of the significance of research ideas and the structure of paper. Chapter 2 is summary of related research on "affection of Exchange rate fluctuations and changes in interest rates on the trade balance, trade balance control". Chapter 3 reviews the situation of adjusting RMB "double rate" and the balance of trade situation after the reform and opening up. Chapter 4, firstly, from the microscopic perspective divides the cost of production exported by enterprise into the wage labor costs, production costs and input prices of capital interest cost, builds corporate profit maximization model to solve export prices and domestic market prices of the elements of cost function, analyses comprehensively of the main factors impacting a country's imports and exports from a microscopic perspective through adding the total sum of enterprises to deduce the influencing factors of an industry and a country's exports; secondly analyses the main factors of exports of one country in different sectors and different markets in competing structure through the theoretical model the equation of import and export to infer the different effects on a country's balance of trade resulted from changes in exchange rates and interest rates. Chapter 5 starts from the perspective on the balance between import and export demanding and supplying of a country , and then derives from the empirical equation of the factors impacting a country's trade balance, empirically analyses how the RMB exchange rate and interest rate changes affect China's total trade balance, country trade balance and types of merchandise trade balance by covariant model. Chapter 6 introduces the variable of foreign direct investment, sets up theoretical model to state the conduction mechanism between exchange rate, interest rates, trade balance and foreign direct investment, empirically analyses the impact of the RMB exchange rate and interest rate movements on our country under the conduction path of foreign direct investment compared with which without foreign direct investment. Chapter 7 expands the traditional DD-AA and TB model based on the Conclusion from chapter 5 and 6 to find the monetary and fiscal policy mix to maintain balanced growth of China's national economy both inside and outside.
In this paper, the main conclusions are: (1) the trade balance is inversely proportional to the relative income levels, the RMB exchange rate, the RMB relative interest rates, relative wages of labor, the relative price of production inputs, is proportional to foreign direct investment. The order of the size of the variables' impact on the trade balance is as follows: relative income level, the exchange rate of RMB, foreign direct investment, the relative interest rates of RMB, relative wages of labor and the relative price of production inputs. (2)RMB "double rate" changes on the impact of trade surplus countries are greater than that of deficit countries. The stronger the competition of the category of merchandise, the greater the impact put on the trade balance of them. (3) Foreign direct investment can offset the trade balance declining when the RMB "double rate" appreciates, while the situation is opposite when RMB "double rate" devalue. (4) In the current context of world economic recession, it must lower RMB "double rate", at the same time, pay attention to monetary policy and fiscal policy mix to promote the development of China's trade balance and the balanced development of the domestic economy. It is also important to speed up the velocity of money circulation, convenience corporate loans which is the most important monetary policy .Fiscal policy and foreign trade and economic policy should focus on increasing government spending and tax relief, promote the growth of processing trade based foreign direct investment, encourage exporting. The end-result of all our policies is putting importance on China's pillar industries in the top ten, especially electrical and mechanical trades, light industry and textile and garment exports which is related to employment.
The innovation of this paper is as follows:(1) the "double rate" changes' impact on trade balance. From the microscopic perspective dividing the cost of production exported by enterprise into the wage labor costs, production costs and input prices of capital interest cost, building corporate profit maximization model to find out the factor impacting a county's export price, gaining the main factors impacting a country's imports and exports through adding the total sum of enterprises. And deducing the influencing factors of an industry and a country's exports from a microscopic perspective, which is more convincing compared with the past through the analysis of macro-economic model. It is also more convincing to empirically analysis how the RMB exchange rate and interest rate changes affect the trade balance of China, using the condition of supply and demand balance for export and import, putting the variable which has impact on export prices into a country trade balance equation. (2)processing trade-FDI is help for steady growth of trade balance in the "double rate" changes circumstances. There is much more theoretical innovations and practical guidance to introduce the interest rate factor prices as a price of production factors into trade balance equation to research on the impact from "double rate" changes on trade balance compared with only researching on the impact from exchange rate on trade balance in the past. (3) In the empirical analysis, using covariant model to examine the structure of variable mutation phenomenon. This model can tested endogenous variable's structure point mutation. This method of treatment is more scientific than considering a case of some unexpected as exogenous variable's point mutation in the past, avoiding negative impact of research findings resulting from the subjective bias.(4)Putting foreign direct investment as the main variables of a country's import demand and export supply into empirical equation of the factors affecting one country trade balance. By studying the different effects between short-term and long-term from "double rate", we found out that processing trade-foreign direct investment can ease the fluctuations in trade balance when the "double rate" changes.(when "double rate" appreciates, foreign direct investment can ease the decline in trade balance;when "double rate"devalues, foreign direct investment can buffer the decrease of the trade balance on the short-term, long-term are of opposite).(5)developing and amending the traditional DD model (market equilibrium) and the TB model (trade balance equilibrium model) based on the results that interest rates have practical implications on the trade balance. Using the method of monetary analysis to divided a country's money supply into domestic basic supply and foreign exchange reserves supply resulting from foreign direct investment and trade balance. Expanding the traditional AA model (the money market equilibrium).And then taking the three expansion models to into a framework to analysis with the country's inside and outside macroeconomic balance, which is more reasonable than the correlation analyses that do not consider the impact of interest rates on trade balance and the impact of foreign reserves on money market balance supply.
引文
1 具体数据来源于国家发改委网站公布的数据,网址:http://www.sdpc.gov.cn。
5 1984年-2000年间的汇率政策调整及作用主要参考徐少强、朱真丽主编的《1949-2000年的人民币汇率史》一书(上海财经大学出版社,2002年)。
6 人民币汇率与利率的前三次冲突表现主要参考郭庆平、王爱俭主编的《汇率政策与利率政策协调机制研究》(中国金融出版社,2007年10月)。
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