摘要
外商直接投资兴起于上世纪中叶,80年代后外商直接投资大规模地向新型工业化国家和包括中国在内的发展中国家流动,外商直接投资的流入对东道国国际收支平衡产生了重要的影响。与此同时,外商直接投资问题和国际收支问题也受到学术界的广泛关注,但早期的相关研究主要从两个方面展开:一是外商直接投资理论,二是国际收支理论。这两种理论只是沿着各自的方向发展。自改革开放以来,我国实际利用外商直接投资已经超过了6000亿美元,2007年贸易顺差突破2600亿美元,外商直接投资对我国国际收支特别是贸易收支产生了重要的影响。因此,本文把外商直接投资问题与国际收支问题特别是贸易收支问题结合起来,在一个统一的框架内研究外商直接投资对我国贸易收支的影响问题,具有极其重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文首先阐述了研究的背景、意义、目的、主要内容、所采用的主要研究方法、研究的创新点;然后对国内外关于外商直接投资对东道国贸易收支影响的理论进行回顾和评价。研究外商直接投资与东道国国际贸易相互促进的机制,分析外商直接投资导致东道国贸易替代效应、贸易创造效应和外商直接投资与东道国贸易收支关系不确定的影响因素。
其次,本文运用了翔实的权威统计数据,制作了大量的图表,主要运用面板数据检验方法深入到地区、行业等层面,分别针对外商直接投资对我国贸易收支总量的影响、外商直接投资对我国贸易商品结构的影响等方面进行具体分析:
在贸易收支总量方面,回顾了我国外商直接投资和贸易收支的发展状况,并借助经典理论模型,采用面板数据,分别分析了我国贸易收支总量、外商投资企业贸易收支总量与外商直接投资存量的关系,探讨了外资在地区层面(东部、中部、西部地区)对贸易收支的影响。实证研究表明,外商直接投资与我国贸易收支总量、外商投资企业贸易收支总量均为正相关,东部地区是我国绝对贸易顺差(出口-进口)的来源地,中部和西部地区是我国相对贸易差额(出口/进口)的来源地。
在贸易商品结构方面,首先,通过对初级产品和制成品贸易商品结构变动分析、不同行业的CTB(贸易差额贡献指数)变动分析对我国贸易商品结构的变化进行剖析。在影响检验中同时引入外商直接投资变量和内资变量,实证结果表明相对内资而言,外商直接投资是我国贸易顺差的主要创造者;在影响因素分析中,实证表明外资主要通过在行业内内外资技术水平差距较小的行业、外向型行业、资本、技术密集型行业的劳动密集型部门和劳动密集型行业创造贸易顺差,而内资主要在行业内内外资技术水平差距较大的行业和资本密集型行业创造贸易顺差。
最后,在肯定了外商直接投资是我国贸易顺差的主要创造者的基础上,本文进一步探讨分析了外商直接投资对我国贸易收支影响的局限性,强调数量扩张型外商直接投资导致绝对贸易差额而非相对贸易差额的扩大,提出要从以总量角度看贸易收支转变为重点看贸易收支结构上来、重视贸易失衡的可承受性而并非失衡本身的规模和时间长短、贸易顺差是各国在华企业共同作用的结果,并非国内企业独自享有等观点。在此基础上提出了我国对外商直接投资的政策建议。
Foreign direct investment (FDI), which was initiated in the middle of the last century, has been flowing into emerging industrialized nations and developing nations including China on a large scale since 1980s. The inflow of FDI imposes significant impact on the international balance of payment of the host country. Meanwhile, the subjects of FDI and the international balance of payment have drawn universal attention of the academic community. However, early researches were conducted and expanded on the following two aspects: 1. the approach of FDI and 2. the approach of international balance of payment. The two approaches were developing only in its specific area. The FDI volume that China actually used in practice has exceeded 600 billion US dollars since the reform and opening up. In 2007, China’s trade surplus topped 260 billion US dollars. FDI has imposed a critical impact on the international payment of China, particularly on the balance of trade. In this regard, it’s of enormous significance in both theory and practice to link FDI research with the research of international balance of payment, in particular with the research on the balance of trade and expand researches on the balance of trade of China affected by FDI under the integrated framework.
This dissertation, first of all, puts forward the background, significance, purposes, key approaches, applied research methods and the innovations in the researches. Then the paper reviews and evaluates the domestic and foreign approaches on how FDI imposes impact on the balance of trade in the host country. The paper also focuses on the researches in the mutually beneficial mechanism of how FDI and the international trade of the host country interact with each other, the analysis on the trade substitution and creation effects of FDI on the host country and uncertainties on the balance of trade of the host country imposed by FDI.
Secondly, this dissertation makes concrete analysis on the following two aspects by taking advantage of authoritative and reliable statistics, tons of charts and diagrams and empirical panel-data analysis to conduct researches on how FDI affects the trade volume and trade structure of China from the perspectives of regions and industries.
In the aspect of trade volume, the dissertation briefly reviews the development history of FDI and the balance of trade in China. Then, the dissertation analyzes the relations between the balance of trade of china and the FDI stock and the relations between the balance of trade of foreign invested business and FDI stock.In addition, the dissertation also explores the impact of FDI on the balance of trade in the East, Central and West China through classic approach models and empirical panel-data analysis. Evidences prove that FDI and the trade volume as well as the balance of trade of foreign invested business are in positive correlation respectively. East China is the key source of origin of China’s absolute trade surplus (export-import) while Central and West China are the sources of origin of China’s relative trade surplus. (export/import)
In the aspect of trade structure, first of all, the dissertation explores the changes of China’s trade structure through the analysis of changes in the structure of primary and processed products and the analysis of changes of CTB of different industries. In the impact test, the dissertation simultaneously introduces FDI variable and domestic investment variable to demonstrate that FDI serves as a key drive for China’s trade surplus compared with the domestic investment. In the impact factors test, the outcome indicates that FDI creates trade surplus mainly in the industries where the level of expertise slightly differs between foreign investment and domestic investment, export-oriented industries and labor intensive divisions of capital and technology intensive industries as well as labor intensive industries while domestic investment creates trade surplus mainly in the industries where the level of expertise largely differs between foreign investment and domestic investment and capital intensive industries.
In conclusion, based on the full support of the positive role of FDI in creating China’s trade surplus the dissertation further points out the limitations of FDI on the balance of trade of China and emphasizes that the expansion-oriented FDI leads to the absolute balance of trade rather than relative balance of trade. The dissertation also proposes the idea of shifting from the emphasis on the balance of payment in the total amount to more emphasis on the structure of the balance of payment, attaching much importance to the sustainability of trade account imbalance rather than the size and the duration of the imbalance itself. In addition, the dissertation also stands for the position that trade surplus is the outcome of the joint efforts by both foreign companies in China and domestic companies rather than the efforts of the domestic companies alone. Based on these new ideas, the dissertation puts forward a series of suggestions and policies.
引文
①本文所有数据除特别说明外均来自1991-2007年《中国统计年鉴》
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