摘要
住房基本制度改革以来,我国城镇住房价格的快速增长与剧烈波动引起城镇居民、开发商、政府及学术界的广泛关注与激烈争论。由于理论依据、分析方法、采用数据存在差异,对住房价格的激烈争论形成两种对立的观点。鉴于住房市场在各国经济的重要地位与作用,国内外学者对住房价格及其波动进行了大量理论与实证研究。本文从住房价格宏观波动这一经济现象分析入手,对我国住房价格宏观波动及其微观机制进行研究,并从住房空置角度对我国住房市场效率进行探讨。
本文介绍了住房同质假定下的住房价格供需研究范式与住房异质假定下的特征价格研究范式,认为供需研究范式忽视了住房异质特征对住房价格的影响,而特征价格研究范式在推广性方面存在局限。为克服以上两种研究范式的局限,本文提出住房价格综合研究范式,并讨论了住房价格综合研究范式的应用条件以及逻辑思路。
按照住房价格研究范式第一种逻辑思路,本文对我国城镇住房价格宏观波动进行计量分析。采用住房基本制度改革后我国31省级行政区1999—2006年住房市场面板数据,运用截面固定效应方法对住房价格宏观波动与收入、就业、住房抵押贷款利率、建筑成本等基本经济变量进行定量分析。结果表明,1999—2006年我国城镇住房价格宏观波动可以由住房市场基本经济变量解释,为我国住房价格宏观波动总体判断提供了定量分析依据。
为更好理解我国城镇住房价格宏观波动的原因,本文对住房市场经济主体相互作用进行分析,探讨住房价格宏观波动的微观机制。
本文运用完全信息动态博弈方法对住房市场基本经济主体销售者一购买者行为进行分析,通过博弈均衡求解及基础模型拓展,提出住房最优定价条件及其影响因素,解释了开发商促销行为及政府土地出让策略对住房最优定价的影响。
由于土地出让用途比例安排基本上决定住房供应结构进而影响住房价格,因而,本文对中央政府与地方政府收益函数进行分析,得出中央政府与地方政府土地出让用途最优比例。进一步通过中央政府—地方政府博弈分析,提出土地出让用途安排中中央政府对地方政府政策执行的最优监督概率及地方政府执行政策的最优概率。
住房投机行为是住房市场局部过热甚至产生泡沫的主要原因。本文通过税收歧视政策下二手房销售者盈利条件分析,认为个人住房转让营业税、个人所得税税收歧视政策,提高了投机类型销售者盈利门槛,降低了投机类型销售者预期净收益,对住房投机行为产生抑制作用。同时,本文对税收歧视政策在物业税设计中的应用进行了探讨。
最后,本文对住房价格机制检验进行分析。住房价格机制决定了住房市场资源配置效率,而住房空置是衡量住房市场资源配置效率的重要依据。运用动态匹配理论,本文解释了住房空置的形成,提出“自然”空置率的计算方法。将“自然”空置率作为检验住房价格机制的重要依据,探讨了降低住房空置率的主要措施。
论文的创新性工作包括以下三个方面:
(1)提出住房价格综合研究范式并在住房价格宏观波动定量分析中进行初步运用。
在住房价格供需理论研究范式与特征价格理论研究范式评析基础上,提出住房价格综合研究范式。采用住房基本制度改革后我国31省级行政区1999—2006年住房市场面板数据,在住房价格宏观波动定量分析中对住房价格综合研究范式按照第一种逻辑顺序进行了初步运用,为我国城镇住房价格宏观波动总体判断提供了定量分析依据。
(2)通过住房市场经济主体相互作用分析,研究影响住房价格宏观波动的微观机制。
对住房市场销售者—购买者行为进行多期博弈分析,并对基础模型进行拓展,根据销售者—购买者博弈均衡条件,提出住房最优定价条件及其影响因素(交易时间偏好系数及市场条件变化系数)。住房供应结构由土地使用权出让用途安排基本决定。通过中央政府与地方政府收益函数分析,得出中央政府与地方政府的土地出让用途最优比例,进而对中央政府—地方政府博弈行为进行分析,提出在宏观政策执行中中央政府的最优监督概率与地方政府的最优执行概率。通过二手房销售者盈利条件分析,解释了个人转让住房营业税与个人所得税税收歧视政策对住房投机需求的抑制作用,并提出税收歧视政策在物业税设计中的应用思路。
(3)提出住房价格机制的验证依据——“自然”空置率
以“自然”空置率为依据,可以判断住房市场空置率的高低,从而衡量住房市场资源利用效率的高低,检验住房价格机制的有效性。本文运用动态匹配理论解释了住房空置的形成,提出“自然”空置率的计算方法及影响因素。
Since the reform of housing fundamental system, the fast increasing and violent fluctuation of urban housing price has caused the broad attention and boiling argument among residents, developers, government and academes. According to the difference of theory, analytic method and data used, the arguments are divided into two opposite viewpoints. Because of the important role of housing market in every country, the foreign scholars have engaged in a great amount of theoretic and positive research. This dissertation analyses the macro-fluctuation and micro-mechanism of housing price and discusses the efficiency of housing market by housing vacancy.
The dissertation introduces supply-demand paradigm under the assumption of homogeneity of housing and hedonic price paradigm under heterogeneity of housing and concludes the deficiency of the two paradigms. The first paradigm ignores the effects of heterogeneous characters on housing price and the second paradigm has difficulties in the applicability. To overcome the deficiency of the two paradigms the dissertation gives the compositive paradigm of housing price research and discusses the situation and logic orders of application.
According to the first logic order, the dissertation makes a positive analysis on the macro-fluctuation of urban housing price. By the panel data of 31 provincial districts in China after the reform and sectional fixed-effect method, the dissertation makes an analysis on the relations of macro-fluctuation of housing price and income, employment, mortgage interest rate and construction cost. The results indicates that the macro-fluctuation could be explained by these fundamental economic variables and gives a quantitative accordance of general judgment of macro-fluctuation of housing price.
To better understand the reasons of macro-fluctuation of urban housing price, the dissertation analyses the reciprocity of economic partners of housing market.
By complete information dynamic game theory method, the dissertation makes an analysis of the behavior between sellers and buyers. By the resolution of game equilibrium and the extension of fundamental model, the dissertation makes clear the situation and factors of optimal pricing and explains the effects of promotion of developers and land transformation strategies on housing optimal price.
Because the proportion of land application determines the housing supply structure and affects housing price, the dissertation analyses the return functions of central government and local government and educes the optimal proportion of land application of central government and local government. By the game behavior between central government and local government, the dissertation indicates the optimal supervision probability of central government and optimal execution probability of local government.
The speculating behavior is the main reason of the bubbles in housing market. By the analysis of threshold of profit of second housing sellers, the dissertation considers that sales tax and income tax discrimination policy increases the threshold and decreases the expected net profit of speculating sellers. So it has a restraining effect on speculating behaviors. Then the dissertation discusses the application of discrimination policy in property tax design.
At Last the dissertation analyses the test of housing price mechanism. Housing price mechanism determines the efficiency of housing market resources allocation and housing vacancy is the accordance to evaluate it. By dynamic fitting theory, the dissertation explains the formation of housing vacancy and gives the evaluating method of "natural" vacancy rate. Taking "natural" vacancy rate as the test of housing price mechanism, the dissertation discusses the measures to decrease housing vacancy rate.
The innovation of the dissertation includes the following three aspects:
(1) The dissertation brings forward to compositive paradigm of housing price research and applies it to the positive analysis on the macro-fluctuation of housing price.
By the panel data of 31 provincial districts in China after the reform and sectional fixed-effect method, the dissertation makes an analysis on the relations of macro-fluctuation of housing price and income, employment, mortgage interest rate and construction cost. The results indicates that the macro-fluctuation could be explained by these fundamental economic variables and gives a quantitative accordance of general judgment of macro-fluctuation of housing price.
(2) By the analysis of reciprocity of economic partners in housing market, the dissertation studies the micro-mechanism of macro-fluctuation of housing price.
By the resolution of game equilibrium and the extension of fundamental model, the dissertation makes clear the situation and factors of optimal pricing. By the game behavior between central government and local government, the dissertation indicates the optimal supervision probability of central government and optimal execution probability of local government. By the analysis of threshold of profit of second housing sellers, the dissertation considers that sales tax and income tax discrimination policy increases the threshold and decreases the expected net profit of speculating sellers. So it has a restraining effect on speculating behaviors. Then the dissertation discusses the application of discrimination policy in property tax design.
(3) The dissertation brings forward to "natural" vacancy rate as the accordance to test housing price mechanism.
By dynamic fitting theory, the dissertation explains the formation of housing vacancy and gives the evaluating method of "natural" vacancy rate. Taking "natural" vacancy rate as the test of housing price mechanism, the dissertation discusses the measures to decrease housing vacancy rate.
引文
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