摘要
中国经济在改革开放的30多年时间内持续高速发展,这主要得益于投资与外贸“两架马车”的并驾齐驱,但同时也消耗了大量的资源,目前来看,现有的发展方式难以为继。通过开放创新、协同创新模式,建设创新型国家、实现经济增长模式转型,已经成为政府和业界就克服目前瓶颈、保证经济持续发展的共识。本研究关注信息时代背景下的技术创新与金融创新的结合问题,提出利用信息技术实现新型的金融服务,试图对基于社会网络的在线投融资服务创新平台建设中的若干关键问题(投融资双方的信息不对称问题,融资项目的质量提升、优胜劣汰问题,市场参与者的非理性行为及对市场效率的影响,风险的识别、度量与监管)进行研究分析,提出解决方案,以期为民间资本增加新的投资渠道,为中小微、创业型企业的高新技术项目融资增加新的渠道。首先,本研究将重点放在讨论、建立基于信息技术应用的、民间资本参与投融资活动的相关理论支撑框架。该理论框架由来自三个方面的理论构成：社会网络相关理论、创新相关理论、投融资相关的理论。社会网络在缓解信息不对称问题方面的作用启发了我们对其在金融创新领域中的可能应用的探讨,也是本文将其纳入基本理论框架中来的重要原因。创新理论对本研究的重要指导价值体现在金融创新与技术创新的内在联系方面。两者互补、互促的关系是体现本研究意义和根据的重要理论立足点。投融资相关的理论作为本研究理论体系支撑的三极中的一极,对于解释在线投融资服务平台中发生的各种现象提供了重要且丰富的理论来源。
本文具体的研究内容及创新(贡献)点主要体现在以下几个方面：一)首次提出了基于信息偏好和获取成本的决策树模型用于解释羊群效应的形成(已发表在SSCI检索的英文期刊上,详见“在读期间科研成果”)。针对在线投融资服务市场中的非理性行为问题,本研究使用决策树模型解释了羊群效应在信息获取成本存在的情况下是如何形成的。相较于过去的同类模型而言,首次引入了信息获取的成本和决策者对信息的偏好两个假设,并且基于模型给出了可以实证的假设,使理论研究与实证研究较好的结合起来。有关本创新点的详情,请见第4章4.2.1节。二)首次揭示了社会网络在缓解信息不对称问题中受到的来自市场外部信誉环境的影响。针对在线投融资服务过程中的信息不对称问题,本文首次使用来自中美两国的P2P市场的真实交易数据进行对比实证分析。其分析结果首次揭示了社会网络在不同市场外部信誉环境中对于信息不对称问题发挥的不同作用。具体而言,我们发现,在中国的拍拍贷市场中,来自社会网络的信号相较于美国Prosper市场,对于投资者的决策具有更加显著的影响。这可以解读为在市场外部信誉体系不完善的情况下,社会网络将在缓解信息不对称方面扮演更加重要的作用。详见第5章5.1节,表5-1和表5-7及结论5-3。三)首次揭示了投资者在在线投融资服务平台中面临信号选择问题时的误判现象。信息系统的应用降低了信息获取、交换的成本,随之而来的也伴随着“信息爆炸”。在面临众多的信息时,如何挑选信息、加工信息获得决策支持是投资者克服信息不对称问题的重要手段。但是,由于各种客观(决策辅助工具)、主观(缺乏投资经验)条件的限制,投资者可能会挑选出与风险无关的信号作为风险评估的信息。详见第5章,结论5-1和结论5-4。四)提出了创新的投融资服务平台及配套的八大机制。本文提出了新的基于社会网络的在线投融资服务平台。该平台以开放创新理念为指导,以信息技术、统计模型作为支撑,融合社会网络服务,加入第三方服务,同时引入机构投资者模式以及P2P模式。一方面,我们试图通过信息技术降低交易成本、提高市场效率,利用P2P模式充分调动民间资本参与企业投融资活动,引入社会网络缓解信息不对称问题,另一方面,我们希望机构投资者和大众投资者共同参与的模式能够对大众投资行为发挥引导作用。并且首次从项目的生命周期视角提出了平台配套的八大机制：项目评估机制、信用保障机制、参与者激励机制、项目资本对接机制、隐私保护机制、知识产权保护机制、风险防控机制、政府监控机制。有关本创新点详情见第6章。
长久以来,由于监管层面对民间金融活动的否定态度,没有积极地去面对、尚未承认其合理性。而这样的态度也禁锢了我们对其进行探讨和研究的步伐。从实证角度来看,由于缺乏认真审视民间金融的态度,以及大规模、真实交易数据收集的缺失,都导致了学术界一直难以获得对民间金融活动进行实证研究的机会。有关学术研究的不足使得我们对于民间金融活动缺乏客观的、全面的了解,产生了一些由于未知而带来的担心,进而拒绝其存在和发展的可能。而随着信息技术的推动,与社会网络服务的结合,基于网络的金融服务创新为我们探索民间借贷活动提供了一个的窗口。在线P2P借贷市场的兴起就是此类在线投融资服务创新的一个典型代表,针对来自在线P2P借贷市场的真实交易数据的分析,使得我们大致可以对民间借贷公开化以后可能出现的问题有所了解和认识。基于来自中美两国的P2P市场对比分析,使得我们证实了社会网络在民间借贷活动中发挥的重要角色。这样的重要性表现在社会网络对借贷活动中投融资双方的信息不对称问题具有明显的缓解作用,且随着市场外部信誉环境的变化而变化：市场信誉缺乏程度越严重,投融资双方对社会网络的依赖性越强。通过对在线P2P借贷市场中的我们的研究还证实了,通过适当的机制设计,加之市场本身的力量,可以对民间借贷活动形成较好的规制、引导效果。民间金融并非无法掌控,在市场经济发展到一定阶段的时候,国家主导的投资行为、经济发展模式会出现明显的问题。因此,对民间资本的利用、民间金融活动的认识需要更多的关注和客观认识。
本研究获得国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZD077)以及四川省科技厅2010、2011和2012平台项目资金的支持。
China's economy has been growing rapidly for more than three decades since its economic reformation which mainly thanks to the development of export and investment. However, this approach comes along with overconsumption of human and natural resources and is no longer sustainable. Currently, it is consented by the government and the industry that collaborative innovation and economic growth pattern transformation are the key factors to overcome the bottleneck of China's economic development. Aiming at increasing investing and financing channel, this study focuses on the merging problem of financial innovation and technological innovation in the information age, proposes an framework and relevant mechanisms to realize an innovative online financial service platform based on social network, investigates several key issues (asymmetric information problem between investor and entrepreneur, improving the financing project quality and filtering the poor quality projects, irrational behavior and its impact on market efficiency, risk management and market regulation) relating to that platform. Firstly, we build the theoretical framework of the research question on the basis of IT application and civil capital involvement. The underpinning theories come from three research domains:social network, innovation, and finance. The effect of social network in eliminating information asymmetry has inspired the research on its potential application in financial innovation. The social capital, embedded in social networks, including social relationships knowledge and information, and monetary capitals, can be used to stimulate innovation, and therefore deserves more attention. The emerging trends in open innovation and collaborative innovation have been applied into many fields, for example, crowdsourcing and crowd funding. The applicability of innovation theory to this research roots in the idea of open innovation which tells us that the most effective way of innovation is to exploit "crowd". The nexus between technology innovation and financial innovation implies the great value and importance to this research. Financing and investing theories, as one of core elements in the theoretic framework, plays a key role in explaining the behavior patterns in financing and investing activities in innovated financing service platforms.
More specifically, the contributions of this research can be summarized as follows:1) we propose a model based on assumptions regarding information preference and retrieving cost to explain the formation of herding behavior in online financial service.(It has been published in a SSCI indexed journal, Information Systems and e-Business Management). We depart from previous models in the assumptions about information cost and personal preference for the different information source. Based on that, our model closely connects to empirical tests. For more details, please see Chapter4and section4.2.1.2) We reveal that the role of social network in ameliorating information asymmetry problem relies on the credit system of the outside market. We conduct an empirical study with real transactional data coming from both China and US P2P lending markets to investigate the information asymmetry problem for the first time. And the results indicate that social network plays different roles in different markets. More detail, we find that in China PPdai market, social network imposes a more significant role than it in Prosper.com, a US P2P lending market. Please check Chapter5and section5.1for more details.3) We firstly observe information overloading problem in online P2P lending markets. Although the application of information system reduces the cost of information retrieving and exchanging, it brings us with information overloading. Facing with many seemingly relevant information to make a decision, how to process them to reduce information asymmetry is a problem for every decision maker. For the lack of personal experience and decision aid tools, investors may adopt risk irrelevant information to make an investment ignoring risk signals. Please check Chapter5and conclusion5-1and5-4for more details.4) A framework of an innovative online financial service platform is proposed. To keep its normal function,8mechanisms are also investigated from the perspective of the project life cycle. This platform is based upon the idea of open innovation and implemented by IT and statistics methods, incorporates social network services, institutional and P2P investing models. On one hand, we want to reduce the transaction cost, level up the market efficiency, fully utilizes civil capital to join the financing activities, through IT technology and social network service. On the other hand, we hope that the financing model integrating both individual and institutional investors can provide individual investor with more guidance. Please check Chapter6for details.
For a long time, government administrator has hesitated to grant legal status to civil financial activities. Such an attitude impedes us to realize the rationality behind its existence, which indirectly prevents us from exploring and studying it. From the practical perspective, due to lack of an objective attitude towards civil financing and real life data vacancy, scholars do not have an opportunity to research into it. Research vacancy will result in lacking comprehensive and objective understanding about civil financing activities. Concerns and anxiety, regarding it come from uncertainty. Based on the development of information technology and online social network services, online financial service provides us with a real transaction based angle to investigate civil lending activities. Analyzing data from online P2P lending market enables researchers to access potential problems after civil finance is legalized. Based on a comparative study between online P2P markets in China and US, our findings identify social network's importance to civil finance. And those findings include:social network can significantly ameliorate asymmetric information problems in online lending markets and its impact on information asymmetry varies in accordance with market external environment. The higher the vacancy of market external reputation system, the more lending activity relies on a social network. It is also confirmed that delicately designed market mechanisms combining the power of the market per se can guide and regulate civil finance well. Legalizing civil finance would not bring us with chaos. When the market-oriented economy reaches a certain stage and becomes more mature, the leading role and direct intervention of government in the civil investing and financing market may hinder the development of the market. Therefore, pay more attention should be paid to the role of civil finance in economic development in order to resolve the problems.
This study is sponsored by the Key Project (11AZD077) of National Social Science Foundation of China and the grants from the Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan province in2010,2011, and2012.
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