摘要
电力资源是我国的重要能源,对于维持我国经济的快速发展和改善人民生活具有重要的保障作用。“十五”以来,我国局部地区,尤其是东部经济发达地区电力供需极不平衡,电力供给远远无法满足经济发展的要求,严重地制约了经济的发展。目前,在我国广义地质能源转变成二次能源—电的比例占总发电量的99%,并将继续作为电力的最重要的一次能源。为此,按照我国的实际国情,在充分考虑能源、环境、经济、企业效益这四者的动态关系的基础上,对电力市场的长期需求趋势和需求结构进行准确地分析与把握,对我国电力工业制定科学、合理的长远发展规划及国家对宏观经济进行有效调控,具有重要的现实意义。
本文首先对我国电力市场的供给与需求结构、我国发电能源结构、电力工业布局、电力工业与经济发展之间的关系等,进行了深入、系统地分析。在此基础上,结合电力市场化、电力运营模式等相关理论,深入分析了我国电力供需的主要影响因素,以及电力供需局部矛盾的成因;针对短期、中期长期电力需求的特点,运用不同的定量方法,对我国电力中长期发展趋势进行分析,并重点对我国从2008年到2020年的电力需求进行了分析预测;最后,结合发电量、装机容量等预测结果,提出了我国未来应该大力发展火电、重点发展水电、提高核电的装机容量和提高西南地区的水电能力等对策建议,以及电力资源结构和空间布局调整优化对策、电力工业运营模式、电力市场化和电网互联等对策建议,并侧重分析了在金融危机下,电力企业如何发展等问题。
全文共分十章,分别介绍了电力长期需求预测的研究意义、我国电力市场中长期需求预测的理论方法;电力市场的供给与需求结构矛盾分析以及影响电力需求的主要因素进行分析;对我国电力市场短期、中长期需求进行了预测与分析;提出了解决我电力供需矛盾的对策建议。希望本文的研究结论能对我国电力工业制定科学、合理的长远发展规划提供一定的借鉴和参考。
Electric power is one of the most essential energy resources, and plays an important guarantee function to maintaining rapid economic development and improving people’s living in China. In recent years, electric power supply and demand have been in a state of extremely unbalanced in some regional areas, especially in the developed east past of China , electric power supply can hardly meet the requirements of economic development, and seriously restraints the development of economy. At present, in China secondary energy—electricity, which is transformed from geographical energy accounts for the total generating capacity of 99% and geological energy will be regarded as the most important primary energy. Thus, in the light of China’s national situations, based on fully considering the dynamic relations among energy resource, environment, economy and enterprise’s economic results, to accurately analyze and master the long-term demand tendency and structure of electric power market, will surely be of great practical significance to China’s electric power industry in formulating a scientific, rational long-term development plan, and to the nation in effectively carrying out macro-economic adjustment and control.
Firstly, this thesis systematically analyzes the supply-demand structure of China’s electric power market, the structure of power generation sources, the distribution of electric power industry, and the relations between electric power industry and economic development, etc.; On the basis of this, the thesis deeply analyzes the main factors affecting China’s electric power supply-demand and the key reason causing the regional supply-demand conflicts, by combining the power market-orientation theory and power operational model theory; Then,based on characteristics of the short-term,long-term’s power demand and making use of different quantity methods, the thesis analyzes the medium and long-term development tendency of China’s electric power , and in particular, places the emphasis on the analysis and prediction of China’s electric power demand from 2008 to 2020; At last, the thesis comes up with some countermeasures and suggestions for future development of China’s electric power industry, such as to vigorously develop thermal power, to take developing hydropower as focal point, to enhance installed capacity of nuclear power, to heighten hydropower capacity in south-west region, etc., by combining with the forecast results of power generation and installed capacity. Furthermore, the thesis also puts forwards relevant solutions to the adjustment and optimization of electric power resource structure and space distribution, operational model of power industry, power market-orientation and interconnection of power networks and how power industries develop under the financial crisis.
There are ten chapters in the thesis, respectively introduces the research significance of long-term prediction of electric power demand,the theories and methods and factors of electricity demand prediction, analyses the supply-demand structure of power market,analyzes and forecast the short-term and long-term demand of power market; brings forward the solutions to solve China’s power supply-demand contradiction. It is expected that the research conclusion be able to provide certain reference to China’s electric power industry in formulating a scientific long-term development plan.
引文
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