摘要
我国各个省域的经济、自然条件差异性较大,各地区碳排放呈现非均衡性及空间分布的异质性特征。因此需要考虑空间地理因素和其他驱动因素协同作用下来对省域碳排放收敛进行定量的研究,这可以帮助人们认识我国省域层面上的碳减排任务划分和区域对策是否公平合理。同时,当前研究碳排放收敛过程中一个重要限制并没有考虑缓慢减弱的随机技术冲击对碳排放产生长期影响,从而不能发现碳排放收敛的动态过程。综上,本文将纳入空间地理因素对中国区域碳排放收敛性展开研究,并进一步考虑随机技术冲击对碳排放的长期动态收敛的影响。
对于中国区域碳排放收敛性的研究,本文首先基于历史碳排放数据,考虑地理空间和多维度驱动因素协同作用,来研究省域、三大地带、八大经济区域人均碳排放收敛、收敛速度及其驱动因素。其次,本文探讨了地理距离、技术扩散渠道与碳排放收敛之间的关系,刻画了随着空间距离变化的碳排放收敛的动态特征。
对于碳排放动态收敛过程及经济政策效用的研究,本文通过对现有的经济-环境理论模型进行改进创新,引入劳动力市场,构建了未征收碳税和征收碳税时的动态随机一般均衡理论模型系统(DSGE模型)。并通过计算机编程,在历史碳排放的数据基础上,分别模拟了在未征收碳税和征收碳税的经济环境下,技术冲击对碳排放的动态收敛过程及宏观经济的影响。此外,本文还计算出了最优碳税值。在技术冲击下,我国碳税与产出呈现顺周期波动的规律,因而可以找到一条碳税路径,实现碳税自动调节经济的功能。
在研究分析过程中,本文不仅基于历史数据对碳排放收敛进行了实证分析,还构建了DSGE模型对碳排放受到技术冲击可能产生的动态收敛过程进行了模拟,呈现了碳排放收敛的变化过程及其趋势。通过对时间维度和空间维度的把握,本文得出了有益的结论,这对政府制定碳经济政策具有一定的理论意义和科学参考价值。
本文分为六章,具体研究内容和结论如下：
第一章绪论主要提出了本文研究背景与意义,梳理国内外相关研究文献,在此基础上,提出本研究的出发点和思路方法。
第二章主要对碳排放绝对收敛及俱乐部收敛进行了分析。本章首先刻画了我国区域人均碳排放区域空间格局。其次研究了我国区域人均碳排放的δ收敛、绝对β收敛、空间俱乐部收敛和碳排放收敛速度,研究结果表明：(1)现阶段,全国并未发现碳排放δ收敛,东中西三大地带的碳排放δ收敛也不明显,八大区域中只有东部沿海地区存在δ收敛。(2)从不同时间尺度看,2005-2010年间存在绝对β收敛。从不同区域尺度来看,东部沿海地区存在绝对β收敛。(3)空间俱乐部收敛研究结果表明,中国区域人均碳排放具有较强的空间自相关性,通过Moran's Ⅰ散点图对我国30个省区进行区域分组发现L-L地区存在空间俱乐部收敛,并且当目标区域β值较低时,会对邻居存在正示范效用,有利于人均碳排放收敛。(4)从碳排放的收敛速度来看,发现东中西三大地带收敛速度不一致,大多数年份,西部地区的人均碳排放收敛速度比东部、中部快。
第三章主要对人均碳排放收敛的驱动因素分析进行研究。本章对比分析了考虑空间因素前后的人均碳排放收敛的结果,发现空间因素不容忽视。考虑空间因素后,集中分析每个驱动因素对人均碳排放收敛的影响,并探讨城市化不同阶段驱动因素对人均碳排放收敛影响的变化。实证结果表明：(1)我国存在人均碳排放条件β收敛,中国人均碳排放符合库茨涅茨曲线(EKC)假说,呈倒U型。能源强度、能源结构、产业结构和城市化因素均与人均碳排放均呈正向相关关系,即降低能源强度、降低煤炭消费占总能源消费的比例及产业结构优化有利于碳排放收敛,城市化进程加快不利于碳排放收敛。(2)进一步分析得出,随着城市化水平提高,人均碳排放收敛速度将降低。中部地区城市化对碳排放收敛的影响程度最大,东部地带次之,西部地带最小。
第四章是第三章研究的一个拓展延续,主要从空间距离、技术扩散渠道对碳排放收敛影响进行了研究。本章通过构建不同的空间经济结构来衡量不同的对内开放度,并对以往的空间计量方法进行改进,通过计算机编程实现了不同的空间经济结构下进行距离迭代实证模拟。研究结果表明,在技术扩散的控制变量的作用下,我国存在人均碳排放收敛。与此同时,我国对内开放度越低的空间经济结构,收敛速度越快。具体来看：(1)FDI和R&D投资提高有利于碳排放收敛。但随着我国对内开放度越高,FDI和R&D投资对人均碳排放收敛影响效应将随之减弱,对内开放度强化了FDI和R&D投资的集聚程度,并不利于收敛。随着距离增加,并未改变FDI与R&D投资促进人均碳排放收敛的趋势。(2)研究国际贸易的技术扩散渠道对碳排放收敛的结果发现,进口有利于促进碳排放收敛,而出口会导致人均碳排放的发散。因此,出口拉动经济发展的模式不利于低碳经济发展。
第五章是技术冲击下的碳税政策效用DSGE模拟。本章构建经济-环境的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)进行政策模拟,在未征收碳税经济环境和征收碳税经济环境的两种情景下,探讨经济环境系统受到技术冲击时我国未来碳排放收敛动态过程及宏观经济的动态变化特征。模拟结果发现：(1)在技术冲击下,征收碳税有利于降低碳排放增长率,存在碳排放动态收敛的趋势。征收碳税短期内碳减排成本增加,但长期将会降低碳减排成本,也会降低碳减排率。(2)从宏观经济动态变化来看,在征收碳税的经济环境下,碳税的作用会挤压技术冲击所带来产出、资本、投资、消费增长的空间。并且在征收碳税的经济环境下,技术冲击最终会导致就业降低。(3)计算得到最优碳税值为75.5元/吨。可使得经济减排成本最小。在技术冲击下,产出与碳税波动是顺周期的,存在最优的碳税路径,实现其自动调节功能。
第六章是总结与讨论。对本文的研究内容和主要结论进行总结,指出本文未来需要展开研究的问题和努力的方向。
Due to that the distinctive differences in the economic and natural conditions in different province and regions in China have resulted in non-equilibrium and heterogeneity of spatial distribution represented by carbon emission reduction among different regions, the research should take the synergy of space geographical factors and multi-dimensional drivers into account in a quantitative way on the convergence of provincial carbon emissions, which could help to decide whether carbon emission reduction task division from the provincial scope or regional countermeasure is fair or rational. Meanwhile, the carbon reduction in different province and regions is simply not an overnight process, but a long-term one. An important limitation to the previous research on the process of carbon emissions convergence is that there is no consideration to the long-term impact of the slow weakening random technology shocks on carbon emissions so that the dynamic process of carbon emissions convergence can not be observed. To sum up, this dissertation is to study the regional carbon emissions convergence of China taking space geographical factors into account and to probe further into the impact of random technology shocks on the long-term dynamic convergence of carbon emissions.
In terms of the convergence of China regional carbon emissions, this dissertation begins with the study on per capita carbon emissions convergence, convergence rate and its drivers of provincial domain, the three zones (the east, the central and the western region), and the eight economic regions based on historical carbon emissions data, considering synergistic effect of geospatial and multidimensional drivers.
Subsequently, this paper focuses on the relationship among geographical distance, technology diffusion channels and carbon emissions convergence, and models the dynamic characteristics of convergence of carbon emissions as the spatial distance varies.
As for the research on the dynamic process of China's future carbon emissions convergence and the dynamic characteristics of macroeconomic as the economic-environmental systems are affected by technology shocks. this paper introduces the labor market through the improvement and innovation of the current economic-environmental theoretical model, to build the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory model system (DSGE model) free of carbon tax and the system imposing carbon tax. And by way of computer programming, it simulates two kinds of economic environment respectively, that is, the one free of carbon tax and the other with carbon tax on the basis of historical carbon emissions data, so as to observe the impact of technology shocks on dynamic convergence process of carbon emissions and macro-economy. In addition, this paper has calculated the optimal carbon tax value, so that the economic cost of reducing emissions is minimized. With the technology shocks, China's carbon tax is pro-cyclical with output so that there would be a carbon tax path to realize the function that carbon tax could automatically regulate the economy.
Through the in-depth research, this paper makes empirical analysis on the convergence of carbon emissions based on historical data and also sets up a DSGE model to simulate the potential dynamic convergence process when future carbon emissions are attacked by technology shocks, which completely represents the whole change process and its trends of the convergence of carbon emissions. From the combination of time dimension and spatial dimension, it comes to beneficial conclusions which make certain theoretical sense and scientific reference value for the government to formulate carbon economic policy.
This study contains six chapters, the specific contents and conclusions of which are as follows:
The first chapter mainly shows the background and significance of this study, and makes literature review, with a view to putting forward the starting point for research and ideas.
The second chapter is designed to mainly analyze absolute convergence and club convergence of carbon emissions. This chapter first depicts the regional spatial pattern of regional per capita carbon emissions in China. Secondly, it touches upon δ Convergence、absolute β Convergence, the space club convergence and carbon emissions convergence rate of regional per capita carbon emissions in China. The results show as the following points. a) There is no nationwide δ Convergence of carbon emissions, nor is significant δ Convergence existing in the three zones and only the eastern coastal areas in eight regions has δ Convergence; b) There is absolute β Convergence from the year of2005and the year of2010with different time scales, while the eastern coastal areas has absolute β Convergence on different regional scale; c) The research on the space club convergence shows that regional per capita carbon emissions in China presents a strong spatial autocorrelation. The regional grouping of China's30provinces with the approach of Moran's I scatter plot turns out that there is spatial club convergence in the L-L region, and it would generate a positive demonstration utility for the neighborhood which is conducive to the convergence of per capita carbon emissions, as the β value in the target region is lower. d) From the point of the convergence rate of the carbon emissions, it is inconsistent with each other in the three regions, the rate in the western region of which is quicker than the rate of that in the east and the central.
The third chapter analyzes the drivers of convergence of per capita carbon emissions. This chapter provides a comparative analysis of the convergence of per capita carbon emissions before and after considering spatial factors, discovering that spatial factors can not be ignored. Taking spatial factors into account, it focuses on analyzing the impact of each of the drivers on the convergence of per capita carbon emissions, and explores changes in the impact of the drivers of urbanization at different stages on the convergence of per capita carbon emissions. The empirical results show as the following aspects, a) China has per capita carbon emissions conditional β convergence, and its per capita carbon emissions comply with Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, shaped in an inverted U. Energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization factors have positive correlation with per capita carbon emissions. In other words, the reduction in energy intensity or the proportion of coal consumption in total energy consumption and industrial structure optimization facilitate the convergence of carbon emissions, but the acceleration of urbanization is not conducive to the convergence of carbon emissions.b) Further analysis points out that the convergence rate of per capita carbon emissions will be reduced with urbanization level rising. The extent of the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions convergence in the central region comes to the greatest, next is the east and the minimal is the western region.
The fourth chapter is an expansion and continuation of the former one, mainly concentrating on the research of the impact of spatial distance and technology diffusion channels on carbon emissions convergence. It measures different internal openness by way of building different spatial economic structure and improves the previous spatial econometric methods. And the empirical simulation of distance iteration under different spatial economic structure is reached through computer programming. The results show that China has per capita carbon emissions convergence in the role of control variables of technology diffusion. Meanwhile, the less domestic openness of spatial economic structure in China, the faster would the convergence rate be. Specifically speaking, a) when China highly domestic opens up, the effect of FDI and R&D investment on per capita carbon emissions convergence would weaken, for the domestic openness strengthens the degree of concentration of FDI and R&D investment, which is not conducive to convergence. b) The research on technology diffusion channels of international trade on carbon emissions convergence shows that imports help to promote the convergence of carbon emissions, while exports will lead to the divergence of per capita carbon emissions. Therefore, the export-driven pattern of economic development is not conducive to the development of low-carbon economy.
The fifth chapter is to make DSGE simulation of the efficacy of carbon tax policy under the impact of technology shocks. An economic-environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) is built to conduct policy simulation. In the economic environment free of carbon tax and the one imposing carbon tax, it probes into the dynamic process of China's future carbon emissions convergence and the dynamic characteristics of macroeconomic as the economic-environmental systems are affected by technology shocks. The simulation indicates that a) The carbon tax collection is conducive to the decrease in carbon emissions growth rate under technology shocks and there is the dynamic convergence trend of carbon emissions. Carbon tax in short-term would increase the cost of carbon reduction, but it will reduce the cost in the long run and also will reduce the rate of carbon reduction, b) From the view of macroeconomic dynamic changes, the role of carbon tax will squeeze the margin of output, capital, investment and consumption growth brought by technology shocks in the economic environment of carbon tax collection. The technology shocks will eventually lead to a decrease in employment, c) The optimal carbon tax is calculated to be75.5yuan/ton, which enables to make the economic cost of reducing emissions to a minimum. Under technology shocks, the output and the carbon tax fluctuations is pro-cyclical.and there is an optimal carbon tax path to achieve its regulatory function automatically.
The sixth chapter is a summary and discussion. This part is to summarize the contents and main conclusions of this study, pointing out its future research issues to be expanded and the future direction of efforts.
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