摘要
改革开放以来的三十多年，中国的经济实现了突飞猛进的发展，但是随之而来的是日益严重的环境污染、生态恶化。党的十八大报告指出，我国应“控制能源消费总量，加强节能降耗”，“形成节约资源和保护环境的空间格局、产业结构和生产生活方式”。通过加快财税体制改革，构建有利于转变经济发展方式的财税体制促进上述目标的实现得到越来越多政界、学界人士的肯定。发达国家的实践表明，环境税能够对环境保护、节能减排起到很好的促进作用。能不能在开征环境税实现节能减排的同时保证经济发展、居民福利水平不降低？这引出了环境税能否实现“双重红利”的问题。
主要研究目的是验证环境税是否能够实现“双重红利”，即在实现“第一重红利”（减排）的基础上能否实现“第二重红利”（GDP或居民福利水平的增加）。在进行以上研究的同时，研究了环境税对能源消耗和行业产出的影响，以使整个研究体系更为完整。
以山东省为例进行研究，编制了《山东省宏观社会核算矩阵》和《山东省社会核算矩阵分解表》作为基本数据输入，结合山东实际及研究需要构建了CGE模型，重点设计了其中“环境模块”的方程构成，对在不同环节征收环境税进行了刻画（生产环节、居民消费环节以及进口环节），实现了模型的动态化，并分别模拟了5种不同情景在2015-2020年间的表现，研究表明：
第一，虽然模拟结果并不支持环境税的“强式双重红利”假说，但是可以实现“弱式双重红利”。征收环境税可以实现二氧化碳减排，虽然在满足减排的前提下无法实现GDP和居民福利的增加（“强式双重红利”），但是通过降低其他扭曲性税种的税率可以使GDP和居民福利的损失有所减少，从而实现“弱式双重红利”。
第二，随着税率的升高环境税的减排效果提升，但是对GDP和居民福利的负面影响也随之增加，环境税的返还可以在一定程度上弥补GDP和居民福利的损失。
第三，减征企业生产税比减征企业所得税更能弥补GDP和居民福利的损失。
第四，环境税会对能源消费结构和产业结构产生影响。原煤在能源消耗中所占比例会有所下降，电力、原油及成品油所占比例会有小幅度增加，但是，短期内山东省以煤为主的能源消费结构难以改变。第三产业比重增加，到2020年第三产业比重将超过第二产业。
More than30years since reform and opening up, China's economy achieved rapiddevelopment, but followed by increasingly serious environmental pollution,ecological degradation. The report of the18th CPC National Congress pointed outthat China should impose a ceiling on total energy consumption, save energy andreduce its consumption. We should preserve our geographical space and improve ourindustrial structure, way of production and way of life in the interest of conservingresources and protecting the environment. More and more politicians, academicsrealized that we should accelerate reform of the fiscal and taxation system and make itconducive to changing the growth model. This is an important way to promote therealization of the above objectives. The practice of developed countries shows thatenvironmental tax can play a good role in promoting environmental protection, energyconservation and emissions reduction. Can environmental tax ensure the economicdevelopment, residents' welfare level is not lower when the purpose of energyconservation and emissions reduction is achieved? It raises the question:environmental tax can achieve "double dividend"?
The main purpose of this paper is to verify whether environmental tax can achievethe "double dividend". On the basis of the realization of "the first dividend"(emissionsreduction), can environmental tax achieve the "double dividend"(the increase in thelevel of GDP or resident welfare)? Meanwhile, environment tax's influence on energyconsumption and industrial output is studied, in order to make the whole researchsystem more complete.
Taking Shandong Province as an example, Shandong Province Macro SocialAccounting Matrix and Shandong Province Social Accounting Matrix decompositiontable are compiled. This study Combinates Shandong‘s actual situation and researchneed to build a CGE model, this study focuses on the design of environment moduleequations and depicts environmental tax‘s levy in different parts (production,consumption and import) and dynamic model was realized. Five different scenariosbetween2015and2020are simulated respectively. The results show that:
First, although the simulation results doesn't support the environmental tax‘s "strong double dividend" hypothesis, but "weak double dividend" can be realized.Environmental tax can reduce carbon dioxide emission. Although to meet the needs ofthe increase in GDP and resident welfare can not be achieved under the premise ofmeet the emission reduction, but by reducing other distorting tax rate GDP andresidents' welfare losses decrease and so as to realize "weak double dividend".
Second, with the increase of rate, emission reduction effect of environmental tax isgetting better and better, but the negative impact on the GDP and resident welfare alsoincrease. The environmental tax return can to some extent make up for the loss ofGDP and resident welfare.
Third, the reduction of production tax can get better results in make up for the lossof GDP and resident welfare more than the reduction of enterprise income tax.
Fourth, environmental tax will impact on energy consumption structure andindustrial structure. The proportion of raw coal in the energy consumption will decline,the proportion of power, crude oil and refined petroleum products will have smallamplitude increase. However, in the short term, the coal-dominated energyconsumption structure is difficult to change in Shandong Province. Tertiary industryproportion increase, the proportion of the tertiary industry will be more than thesecond industry by2020.
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