摘要
加速产业结构调整,促进产业结构优化升级,是我国实现经济可持续发展、转变经济发展方式、改变国际分工中不利地位的迫切需要。从资源配置的角度来说,一国产业结构升级就是对国内外各种资源优化配置的过程。在市场经济条件下,资源的优化配置主要依托价格机制的杠杆效应。汇率作为重要的价格信号,影响该国参与国际分工的成本,改变一国生产要素的相对价格,引导国内资源的重新配置,对一国产业结构的调整产生重要影响。因此,在当前经济全球化深化发展,中国参与全球化和国际分工的深度与广度不断强化,国内经济与产业结构的变化受经济全球化的影响日趋增强,中国人民币汇率改革备受关注的情况下,深入探讨人民币汇率变动对国内产业结构调整的影响,充分利用人民币汇率改革实现国内产业结构的调整优化具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。
本文从理论上研究了汇率变动影响产业结构调整的机理及其路径,描述了中国人民币汇率变动与产业结构变动的相互关系及其演变发展趋势,并运用相关计量经济模型分别对人民币对国内产业结构的影响及其影响路径进行了实证检验。
本文从资源配置的角度,以劳动力、资本要素在产品市场和要素市场的流动为切入点,分别构建“汇率-国际贸易-产业结构”传导和“汇率-FDI-产业结构”传导两个理论模型,对汇率变动对产业结构变化的影响机理及其路径进行了深入系统的理论研究。研究表明,汇率变化通过国际贸易路径对产业结构变化的影响机理主要表现为,一国汇率变动将影响进出口产品的价格,而产品市场价格的变动必将影响国内要素市场,进而使得生产要素价格发生相应变化。通常情况下,劳动富裕型国家货币升值会导致本国劳动力价格相对上升和资本价格相对下降,使该国产品市场发生两种变化：一是同行业产品将更多使用资本要素进行生产,形成产业内优化升级；二是对汇率敏感的劳动密集型产品生产向资本、技术密集型产品生产转换,形成不同产品与产业间的升级,最终导致国内资源重新配置,实现贸易产品的结构升级并带动国内产业结构升级。汇率变化通过FDI路径对产业结构变化影响的机理是,东道国货币升值使得其资本、劳动力等生产要素的国际价格相对上升,导致短期内FDI的成本相对上升、财富相对减少。在产品市场FDI企业从长期考虑必须提高产品的资本-劳动比,才能减少汇率升值带来的不利影响,继续盈利。否则将减少利润直至退出。结果是产品升级,资源重新配置,东道国产业结构升级。总体来说,国际贸易、FDI对产业结构调整的影响同时通过资本积累效应、技术进步效应、产业关联效应等作用机制来实现的。
在上述理论推演的基础上,本文运用大量的统计数据,分别对人民币汇率、产业发展、国际贸易、FDI的演变过程进行了回顾,并从历年发展趋势分析了他们之间的关系,初步验证理论推导。分析结果表明,汇率与产业结构存在一定联系,国际贸易、FDI两条路径与汇率、产业结构之间有一定关系。伴随人民币汇率升值,第一产业占比减少,第二、第三产业占比增加；劳动密集型行业占比下降,资本、技术密集型行业占比上升。人民币汇率变动带来了国际贸易的变动,人民币升值与贸易额增长、贸易结构改进并存。贸易结构改善与产业结构优化同步,朝着劳动密集型行业占比下降,技术密集型行业占比上升的方向发展,但对资本密集型行业占比影响不大。人民币汇率变动与FDI变化的趋势不尽一致。FDI没有随着人民币汇率的升值或贬值出现流入减少或增加的变动,一直保持上扬,但汇率变动对FDI的增速有影响。1995-2005年,汇率稳定与FDI稳步增长并存,2005年以后人民币升值与FDI高速增长同存。FDI投向与我国产业结构演变趋同,都是第一产业占比降低,第三产业占比上升。
基于中国行业和地区层面数据,利用单方程模型和联立方程计量模型,实证检验了我国人民币汇率变动对产业结构变动的影响及其影响路径。首先,通过单方程模型和时间序列处理方法,分别从人民币汇率变动对三次产业结构的影响和对不同要素密集度行业结构的影响两个层面,检验了人民币汇率变动对产业结构的影响。利用省级地区的面板数据,分别选取人民币的名义有效汇率和实际有效汇率作为解释变量,系统地采用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和固定效应估计法对人民币汇率与全国及东部、中部、西部地区三次产业结构的关系进行了检验。利用全国劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型行业的数据,分别利用人民币名义有效汇率、实际有效汇率作为解释变量,采用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正分析、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析等一系列时间序列处理手段,对人民币汇率与不同密集型行业结构之间的关系进行了实证考察。实证结果表明：总体而言,人民币汇率变动对我国产业结构的调整有一定影响,但对不同行业、不同地区的影响存在差异。从汇率对不同产业的影响来看,在全国和东、中、西部地区,人民币升值对第二产业的发展具有比较显著的抑制作用,对第三产业的发展则具有显著的促进作用；对东、中部地区产业结构的影响显著大于西部地区；人民币汇率升值对劳动密集型行业发展有一定抑制作用,对技术密集型行业发展有较为显著的促进作用,对资本密集型行业发展具有不确定性,且实际有效汇率的影响显著大于名义有效汇率。
其次,进一步对人民币汇率变动通过国际贸易和FDI两条路径对国内产业结构调整的影响进行了实证研究。从国家层面建立包含国际贸易、FDI和产业结构方程的联立方程模型、基于地区数据构建面板数据模型,通过实证系统讨论了汇率变动对产业结构影响的路径。实证结果表明,汇率变动可以通过国际贸易和FDI路径影响产业结构的调整。从国际贸易路径来说,汇率变动对贸易商品中资本密集型比重影响的显著性水平很低,而对贸易商品中技术密集型行业影响的显著性水平较高；而国际贸易对于技术密集型行业有积极影响,但对资本密集型行业比重的提高作用不明显。从FDI的路径来看,汇率变动在资本密集型和技术密集型行业中对于FDI的流入都有正面作用,但资本密集型行业中的影响更显著,强度也更大；而FDI的流入能够促进技术密集型行业比重提高,对资本密集型行业比重的影响较弱。
基于上述理论分析和实证研究结论,从加大汇率制度中市场调节作用,循序渐进推进汇率制度改革,促进产业结构升级；利用升值倒逼贸易结构升级,进口资本类贸易品,推进产业结构升级；借汇率变动提升FDI质量,促进FDI技术溢出,调整产业结构；以汇率调整为契机,促进区域产业发展与协调等方面提出了如何推进我国人民币汇率制度改革以促进国内产业结构优化升级的对策建议。
The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is an urgent need to accelerate the transformation of mode of economic development, and to achieve sustainable economic growth as well as to change the disadvantage position in the international industry division. From the resource-allocation point of view, the upgrade of industry structure is the process of optimizing the allocation of domestic and foreign resources. In the market economy, the price mechanism is likely to lead to an optimum allocation of resources. As an important external price signals, the exchange rate affects the cost of participation in the international division of labor, which changes a country's relative prices of production factors, and guides the re-allocation of domestic resources. Therefore, the exchange rate has an important impact on the country's industrial structure adjustment. As the economic globalization is deepening and developing, the depth and breadth of China's participation in the global economy and the international division of labor continues to strengthen, the effect of economic globalization to domestic economic and industrial structure continues to enhance and the RMB exchange rate reform is concerned, analyze the influence of exchange rate changes on the industrial structure's upgrade and make full use of the RMB exchange rate reform to adjust the domestic industrial structure has a very important theoretical and practical significance.
This paper explores the mechanism how exchange rate changes affect the industrial structure, and describes the mutual relations between the RMB exchange rate movements and changes of industrial structure, and makes empirical analysis on the influence of the RMB fluctuation on the domestic industrial structure.
From the perspective of resource allocation, this paper creates two theoretical models to study the mechanism of how exchange rate changes affect industrial structure, one is based on the relationship of "exchange rate-international trade-industrial structure", and the other focus on the relationship of "exchange rate-FDI-industrial structure", to make a deep and thorough study on the effect of exchange rate movements to industrial structure changes. The studies presented in this thesis find that, through international trade channels the exchange rate changes will affect the price of the import and export products, while changes in the price is bound to affect domestic factor markets, thus will make the prices of factors change accordingly. Under normal circumstances, currency appreciation in the labor-rich countries will cause the domestic price of labor to rise and the price of capital to decline, and the product market will vary in two ways:one is the production in the same industry products will use more capital, this forms the updating within the industry; the other is among different industries, the production of labor-intensive goods which sensitive to exchange rate will convert to the production of capital-intensive and technology-intensive, eventually will lead to the domestic reallocation of resources, achieve the upgrading of the structure of trade products and domestic industries. The mechanism of exchange rate changes affect the industrial structure through FDI is that, the currency appreciation of host country makes the international price of capital, labor and other production factors relative rise, results in the rise of FDI's costs, the reduction in wealth. In the product market, FDI enterprises must improve capital-labor ratio to reduce the adverse impact of exchange rate appreciation; otherwise it will result in decrease in profit. The result is the products are updated, reallocation of resources, and industrial structure upgrading of the host country. Overall, international trade and FDI affect the adjustment of industrial structure through capital accumulation, technological progress and industrial linkage effects.
On the basis of the above theoretical analysis, this paper reviews the evolution of RMB exchange rate, industry development, international trade and FDI, analysis the relationship among them based on historical trend over the years. The results show that there is a certain link between the exchange rate and industrial structure. Associated with the appreciation of RMB, there has been a reduction in the proportion of the primary industry and an increase in the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries; the proportion of labor-intensive industry declines, the proportion of capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industries increase. Changes in the RMB exchange rate have brought about changes in the international trade, but FDI has not changed with the appreciation or depreciation of RMB. From1995to2005, there was a stable relationship between exchange rate and FDI growth, and along with the appreciation FDI rapid growth after2005. There was a convergence between FDI's direction and industrial structure's evolution, both declined in the primary sector and increased in the tertiary industry.
Using industrial data and regional data, this paper constructs econometric models to test the impact of exchange rate changes on industrial structure. First, the paper builds a model to test the relationship between exchange rate and the structure of three industries, and builds another model to test the relationship between exchange rate and the factor structure of industries. Based on the provincial panel data, selecting nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)of RMB and real effective exchange rate(REER) of RMB as explanatory variables, the paper test the relationship between exchange rate and the structure of three industries and the relationship between exchange rate and the factor structure of industries employing panel unit root test, panel co-integration tests and fixed effects model of panel data. Based on the national data of labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, selecting NEER and REER of RMB as explanatory variables, the paper test the relationship between exchange rate and capital-intensive industry and the relationship between exchange rate and technology-intensive industry employing unit root test, co-integration analysis, error correction and Granger causality test and impulse response analysis. Empirical results show that, the Changes in exchange rates have a certain influence on the adjustment of industrial structure among industries and among regions, but the influences are different to different industries and different regions. In the whole country and Eastern、Central and Western of the country, the impact of RMB appreciation is negative to the development of the secondary industry and has a significant role in promoting the development of tertiary industry; The impact on Eastern and Central of the country is stronger than Western of the country. The appreciation of the RMB inhibits the development of labor-intensive industries, promotes the development of capital-intensive industries, and the impact on capital-intensive industry is uncertain.
The paper further presents an empirical analysis on how the changes in the RMB exchange rate affect domestic industrial restructuring through international trade and FDI. Developing a simultaneous equations model with international trade, FDI and industrial structural on the national level, the result shows that changes in exchange rates can affect the industrial restructuring through international trade and FDI pathways. From the perspectives on international trade, the significance level of the relationship between changes in exchange rate and the proportion of capital-intensive industries is very low, and the significance level of the relationship between changes in exchange rate and the proportion of technology-intensive industries is higher; and the international trade has a positive impact on technology-intensive industries, but the effect on capital-intensive industry is not obvious. From the perspectives on FDI, changes in exchange rate have positive effects on the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, but the impact on capital-intensive industry is more significantly, the intensity is greater; the inflow of FDI promotes the proportion of technology-intensive industries, and has a weak influence on the proportion of capital-intensive industries.
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical findings, this paper presents suggestions to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure:increases the role of market regulation in the exchange rate regime, pushes forward the reform of the exchange rate system; uses the RMB appreciation to upgrade trade structure, imports capital-intensive goods; enhances the quality and level of FDI, promotes FDI-related technology spillover; promotes the coordinated development of regional economy.
引文
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