摘要
2004年以来,在人民币升值预期的带动下,我国资本项目和经常项目连年双顺差,致使我国外汇储备每年以2000亿美元的速度攀升,广义货币量也随之快速上涨。在资金面宽松的影响下,国内金融机构存款加速度增长,资产被动膨胀。这又造成信贷市场过度竞争,金融机构投资收益不断下降,放大了信用风险和利率风险。在多余资金的推动下,股票、房地产等资产价格不断飙升,我国再次出现通货膨胀现象。然而自2007年4月开始,以美国新世纪房屋贷款公司申请破产保护为开端,美国次级按揭贷款危机的爆发并逐步恶化,引发全球范围的金融动荡。受次资危机的影响,再加上中央银行连续运用从紧的货币政策调控过剩流动性,我国经济又出现资金面紧张,流动性萎缩的情况。
只要人民币存在升值预期,基础货币供应就不会停止,我国国内流动性过剩的根基就不会动摇,而暂时的流动性不足只是受次贷危机影响的短期现象,未来经济一旦复苏,中国政府还将面临着更加巨大的流动性过剩压力,流动性过剩问题将仍将是中国社会的一个长期性问题。本文运用定性分析与定量分析、规范分析和实证分析相结合的方法,对流动性过剩的理论基础及其成因的作用机理进行了研究,探讨了我国流动性过剩的现状和存在的问题,并借鉴国外经验,结合中国实际,就未来中国可能面临更大一轮的流动性过剩时,提出了一些防范和化解流动性过剩的相关政策建议。本文对流动性过剩的研究主要目的也正在于此。
本文共分为五章。第一章为绪论,对选题的背景和意义进行了分析和说明,对国内外相关研究情况按照研究时间和研究角度分类,分别进行了整理和归纳,基本能够涵盖本课题的前人研究成果。第二章的内容主要是概括了我国流动性问题现状,界定了流动性相关金融理论和我国流动性过剩的表现及对经济的影响。第三章的主要内容是分析我国流动性过剩问题形成原因。通过数据和表格,详细揭示我国此次流动性过剩成因,为化解我国流动性过剩问题提供依据。第四章的主要内容是采用定性、定量和因果分析法构建计量模型,对影响流动性过剩的因素进行检验和分析。中央银行的货币、商业银行的货币、存款和在流通市场上交易的证券是金融部门提供流动性的三种形式。本文通过选取存贷差作为因变量,用以反映流动性过剩,上证市值、外汇占款和货币供应量作为变量,反映影响流动性过剩的有代表性的因素,建立模型,分析各变量对流动性的影响程度,进一步为提出防范化解流动性剩对策提供数据支持。第五章的主要内容是根据计量模型分析得出的结论,从宏观和微观两个层面提出防范化解我国流动性过剩问题的对策建议。
Since 2004, China’s capital projects and regular projects both bring about surplus in successive years due to the appreciation of RMB, which causes the China’s foreign exchange reserves to go up by 200 billion dollars each year. Consequently, broad money rises sharply. Under the influence of liberal fund environment, the deposits of domestic financial institutions mount rapidly, and assets expand passively. In return, this arouses the excessive competition of credit market, continuous profit decline of financial institution, enlargement of credit risk and interest rate risk. With the impetus of excess funds, the asset price of stocks and real estate keeps soaring. Inflation comes up once again in China. However, with the beginning of American New Century House Mortgage’bankruptcy protection, American secondary mortgage crises break out and become deteriorating, which leads to the worldwide financial turbulence. Because of American sub prime lending crisis, and the China Central bank’s tight monetary policies to adjust excess liquidity, fund tensity and liquidity shrinkage reemerge in China’economy.
As long as RMB has the appreciation potential, the supplies of fundamental monetary won’t come to a cessation, and the foundation of China’s domestic excess liquidity won’t change. However, the current liquidity shrinkage is just a short-term phenomenon influenced by American sub prime lending crisis. Once the economy comes to its recovery in the near future, Chinese government will confront greater pressure of excess liquidity, which remains a long-term issue in China. The present paper applies combined methods of qualitative analysis vs quantitative analysis, normative analysis vs empirical analysis to probe into the theories of excess liquidity and its working mechanism on causes. This thesis also makes a tentative study on the current situations and existing problems of excess liquidity. Taking china’s reality into consideration while learning from foreign experience, this paper puts forward some related policy proposals to safeguard and resolve excess liquidity, which is the aim this thesis puts efforts on the excess liquidity.
This paper consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction to the background and significance of the present research. In this chapter, the author classifies the related research achievements both at home and abroad according to time and research angles, which is believed to have generally covered the previous research achievement. The second chapter summarizes the current situations of excess liquidity and defines the concerning financial theories of liquidity and the presentation of China’s excess liquidity and the impact on economy. The third chapter analyzes the causes of China’s excess liquidity. Through data and tables, the author reveals detailed information on the causes of China’s current excess liquidity, which could provide theoretical and practical basis to resolve China’s excess liquidity problems. The fourth chapter analyzes and testifies the factors influencing excess liquidity by means of constructing econometric models with qualitative, quantitative, and Causal analysis. The central bank’s monetary, commercial banks’monetary and deposits, and securities traded in circulation market are the three liquidity forms supplied by financial sectors. This paper chooses the margin between deposits and loans as the dependent variable to reflect the excess liquidity, and chooses market value of Shanghai Stock Exchange, funds outstanding for foreign exchange, and Money supply as variables to reflect the representative elements influencing excess liquidity, which contributes to build a model to analyze the impacts on liquidity of various variables. All of this provides data support for further precautions and resolutions to liquidity risks. The fifth chapter comes to a conclusion in accordance with measurement model analysis, and it offers some suggestions and proposals to prevent and resolve China’s excess liquidity problems from both macro and micro levels.
引文
1数据来源:中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
2数据来源:中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
3数据来源:中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn/。
4数据来源:中信证券网站http://www.cs.ecitic.com/。
5数据来源:中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn/
6数据来源:中国人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn/和新浪财经http://finance.sina.com.cn/。
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