摘要
房地产业已经成为国民经济的重要产业或支柱产业,与国民经济发展及人民生产生活休戚相关。当前,我国房地产市场出现风险过大的现象并成为我国宏观经济调控的重点。伴随着国家宏观调控和房地产经营风险的不断加大,目前房地产业呈现出投资多元化的趋势。通过投资多元化,投资者可以达到分散风险的目的。很多投资主体积极进行投资品种上的投资组合及地域上的投资组合。房地产投资组合的核心是如何最大限度的获得最高的投资收益并使投资的风险最小。
国内关于投资组合理论或实证研究主要集中在证券市场领域,房地产领域的投资组合研究很少,很难使房地产投资者分散投资风险、增加投资收益的需要得到满足。进行房地产多元化的投资选择时,选择什么品种进行投资,如何权衡不同类型房地产的风险及收益状况,以什么为目标确定最优投资组合,如何对投资风险进行测度,进而做出的决策以最大程度的规避风险实现稳定的收益。本文尝试在对风险收益进行度量的基础上,构建房地产投资组合及风险测度模型,为投资者投资提供量化的投资决策支持。
论文以A市不同房地产类型的投资组合为研究对象,在大量的资料搜集和市场调查的基础上,运用房地产投资组合模型及VaR模型,为投资者投资决策提供支持。在第一章中,详细的介绍论文研究背景及意义,研究思路及主要内容,研究的主要方法。通过总结国内外房地产投资组合及风险的研究状况,得到本文的主要研究方法和研究框架；在第二章中,对房地产投资风险的相关概念进行界定,探讨房地产市场风险的表现形式及成因,并对主要的风险因素进行归类；在第三章中,对房地产投资组合优化的基本理论及方法进行详细的分析,为模型的建立奠定基础；在第四章中,建立单位风险收益最大的房地产投资组合模型及VaR风险测度模型,并对模型求解及应用进行详细的说明；在第五章中,针对A市房地产投资组合及优化案例,运用文中建立的模型进行求解,为投资决策提供数据支持；第六章总结全文,提出尚待解决的问题和进一步的研究方向。
The real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries of the country, and it concerns the national economic development and the living and production of people. Today, the real estate market in China becomes the important point of macro-economic control as a result of excessive risk. With the increase of the national macro-control and real estate business risks,the present real estate has shown a diversified trend. Investors achieve risk diversification by diversified investment. A great many investors are active to try both geographical portfolio and varieties portfolio.How to maximize the return on investment and minimize the risk of real estate portfolio is the main objective of the investors.
The theoretical and empirical studies on investment portfolio are concentrated mainly in the area of the securities business and few in the area of real estate in China, so it is difficult to make real estate investors' needs to reduce risk and increase income met.While facing wide range of real estate investment options,the choice of what kind of investment products,how to weigh the benefits and the risk of different products, for what goals to determine the optimal investment portfolio, and how to measure the portfolio risk and make decision so as to avoid risks and achieve stable income are the key aspects.Based on the measurement of risk and return,the article attempts to establish model for real estate portfolio and risk measure so as to provide quantitative decision support.
Taking real estate portfolio of different product in A City as the research object, this paper use real estate portfolio and VaR model to support investors'decision on the basis of mass data and market statistics.In chapter 1,a detailed description on background, significance, idea and content, method of this research is given.The main study method and framework is obtained by studying, and summarizing portfolio and risk home and abroad. In chapter 2, related concepts of the risk of real estate investment are studied and defined, and form and cause of risk are researched, moreover, the main risk factors are classified. In chapter 3,basic theories and methods of real estate portfolio are analyzed in detail,which lays the foundations for establishing model.In chapter 4, the article establishes real estate portfolio model and VaR model which maximizes the return of each unit's investment risk. In addition, solving and application of the model are presented. In chapter 5,example analysis and decision support are given in connection with the real estate portfolio and optimization in A City by using the model built in this article. Chapter 6 summarizes the article, and puts forward problems that remain to be solved and further research direction.
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