摘要
供应链中的不确定性是客观存在的,这种不确定性会给企业带来极大的风险,因此如何恰当应对供应链中的不确定性,给供应链决策者带来了极大的挑战。前人的文献大多只针对内部不确定性的影响进行分析,本文在此基础上增加了对外部环境不确定性影响的分析并用环境影响因子(?)对这种外部不确定性进行量化表征。另一方面,供应链管理本身要求决策者所做的决策不仅能实现供应链成员企业的利润最大这一传统的目标,同时也能实现供应链协调运作、运作性能最优等其他的目标。为此,本文将不确定模糊规划和多目标规划相结合,构建了一个基于内外环境不确定的供应链多目标决策模型,模型结果可指导决策者恰当应对供应链内外的不确定性,做出可实现多重目标要求的最优决策。模型用模糊集表征供应链内外的不确定性,同时考虑供应链三个维度上6个目标要求,采用交互式满意解法对模型求解,充分发挥人的因素,体现决策者知识、经验及偏好对决策的推动作用。最后,以苏州工业园区内一家4级供应链为例,对模型进行实例运算、分析,并与确定性决策模型结果进行对照研究,结果显示模糊决策模型不仅能恰当合理的表征供应链内外的不确定性,融入决策者的知识、经验及偏好等模糊因素,还能使得供应链各目标表现更优,同时对供应链总体运作性能也有了明显的改善。
Supply chain uncertainty is substantial existent that can bring great business risks, so how to react these uncertainties in the supply chain has been a great challenge to the decision-makers. Most previous studies have only focus on the internal uncertainties, this paper also analyses the uncertainty in the external environment modeling it by using fuzzy setδ。On the other hand, Supply Chain Management requires that the decision can not only help to achieve the most profits for all the enterprises, but also help to coordinate the supply chain operation, realize optimal performance. Therefore, in this article Uncertain fuzzy programming and Multi-Objective planning are combined to establish a supply chain multi-objective decision making model based on impact of internal and external uncertainties to guide decision-makers to react to these uncertainties appropriate, get the optimal decision which can be achieved to achieve multiple objectives. Modelling the internal and external supply chain uncertainty by fuzzy sets, and taking into account the three dimensions of six objectives of SC. The interactive satisfaction method has been applied to solve the model, giving full play to human factors, considering the promoting role of the decision-makers'knowledge, experience and preferences. Finally, this proposal is tested by using data from a real cable company's supply chain within the Suzhou Industrial Park. The results show that fuzzy decision model can not only reasonably character the internal and external supply chain uncertainty and the fuzzy knowledge, experience and preferences of decision-makers, but also comparing to the deterministic model, the results from the multi-objective fuzzy decision-making model can significantly improve the overall SC system performance. This shows that the model proposal in this paper can help decision makers make the appropriate response to internal and external uncertainty, meanwhile achieve supply chain management multi-objectives, guiding decision-makers make more effective and feasible decisions.
引文
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