摘要
随着人口数量的急剧增长和社会经济的快速发展,人们对各种资源的需求不断提高,直接带来了严峻的资源和环境问题。资源短缺、环境污染、生态失衡成为影响区域快速发展的制约因素。近年来,许多学者关注于区域资源的优化配置与管理研究。区域资源调配不仅与当地的社会经济发展有着紧密的联系,还涉及众多过程,如供给、生产、运输、存储、资源转换和消费,以及相关的社会政策等。其中每个过程都存在多种复杂性和不确定性。过去虽然已有大量不确定优化模型被研究并用于解决区域资源配置问题,但是很少在优化配置过程方面提供具体的资源调配方案,例如关于资源的调配总量,调配批量及调配周期等问题。
基于此,本文以区域资源系统中水资源系统及电力系统的规划与管理为主要研究对象。鉴于存储论可以有效解决物资供需问题并可以提供具体的物资调配方案的优势,将其引入水资源系统和电力系统的规划与管理中,与多种不确定优化技术结合,解决不确定条件下水资源和能源资源的调配问题,同时规避资源短缺风险。具体研究内容包括：(1)综合区间数学规划、两阶段随机规划、多阶段随机规划和存储理论的优点,分别提出了基于存储论的区间两阶段随机规划方法和基于存储论的不确定多阶段随机规划方法,用于解决水资源管理系统中不同来水情景下的水资源调配问题；(2)集区间数学规划、模糊规划、两阶段随机规划和存储理论的优点于一体,提出了区间模糊两阶段随机存储规划方法,将其应用于漳卫南流域的岳城水库对安阳和邯郸两个城市的农业供水问题；(3)以区间数学规划和存储非线性规划为基础,提出了不确定存储非线性规划方法,将其用于解决武安市电力系统中多种资源价格下的能源资源供应、能源转换技术的扩容、电力需求及相应的环境问题。
结果表明,基于存储论的多种不确定优化技术不但可以帮助决策者有效识别研究系统中存在的各种复杂性,规避资源短缺风险,还可以在实现系统成本最小或收益最大的前提下为决策者提供具体的资源调配方案,方便决策者在未来的资源管理中制定相关的方针政策,从而促进区域资源的可持续发展。
With the significant increase of population and rapid development of social economy, the demands for various resources are constantly increasing, which directly lead to serious resources and environmental problems. Resources shortage, environmental pollution and ecological imblance become the factors restricting the country's rapid developing. Recently, a number of scholars focuse on the research of regional resources'optimal allocation and management. The allocation of regional resouces not only has a close relationship with local social-economic development, but also refers to a series of processes, such as supply, production, transportation, sotrage, conversion and consumption, as well as related social policies. Each of these processes has many kinds of complexities and uncertainties. Although there were many uncertainity optimization methods which have been studied and applied to slove the regional resources allocation problems in the past, few of them provided specific resources allocation alternatives in the optimal process, such as the total quantity, batch and period for resources transferring.
Based on this, the planning and managemnt of water resources and electric power system in regional resources systems would be studied in this thesis. Since the advantages of inventory theory in solving supply-demand problems and providing specific transferring alternatives for materials, it would be introduced and combined with multiple uncertainty optimization technologies, in order to slove the allocation problems of water resources and energy resources under uncertainty, and meanwhile avoid the risk of resources shortage. In detail, the main research contents are as follows:(1) an inventory-theory-based interval two-stage stochastic programming method and an inventory-theory-based inexact multistage stochastic programming method would be developed by integrating interval mathematical programming, two-stage stochastic programming, multistage stochastic programming and inventory theory, respectively. In addition, they would be applied to solve water resources transferring and allocating problems under different water flow scenatios in water resources management systems;(2) an invertal fuzzy two-stage stochastic inventory programming method would be proposed by combining interval mathematical programming, fuzzy mathematical programming, two-stage stochastic programming and inventory theory. Moreover, the proposed method would be applied to study the agricultural water allocation problems from Yuecheng Reservoir in Zhangweinan River Basin to cities of Anyang and Handan;(3) based on interval mathematical programming and inventory nonlinear programming, an inexact inventory nonlinear programming method would be studied and applied for solving problems of energy resources supply, capicity expansion of different energy conversion technologies, electric demands as well as relative environment in electric power system in City of Wuan.
The obtained results implied that the multiple inventory-theory-based uncertainty optimization technologies can not only help decision makers identify various complexities in the study sytem, but also help avoid the risk of resources shortages. In addition, they can provide specific resources transferring and allocating alternatives for decision makers under the condition of realizing system cost minimization or system benefit maximization. Totally, the obtained solutions are helpful for decision makers in determining related policies for future resources planning and management, and thus promote the sustainable development of regional resources.
引文
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