摘要
为满足城市化的发展要求以及市民的文化生活需求,城市中举办大型活动日益频繁。在这些大型活动举办期间,城市交通网络中的局部交通量剧增,这就给原本已经很严峻的城市交通带来更大压力。如何保证大型活动期间交通疏散能够安全、快捷的进行,以减少其对城市正常交通的影响,是城市交通管理者迫切需要解决的一个问题。
国内外在该问题上的研究主要是针对奥运会等特大型有组织的活动,根据活动举办前周密的组织计划,在活动结束时引导参与者进行疏散,并且这些研究对活动地点的针对性较强。而城市中常见的大型活动,多选择在开放地点举办,不能很好的对参与者的出入进行控制,针对这样的问题,本文分析了城市大型活动的疏散特征,提出了大型活动中的交通需求预测方法,并对交通疏散管理措施进行了研究,最后选取典型的案例进行交通需求和疏散分析。
首先,本文以城市大型活动为研究对象,研究了其疏散特征,并依此为基础,以四阶段法为依据,对大型活动中交通需求预测方法进行了深入研究。得到了最优的需求预测流程,即分别确定常态下的交通分布和活动区域的交通分布,得到大型活动中的交通出行分布,根据交通疏散特征选取随机用户均衡模型对城市大型活动疏散进行交通分配。
其次,制定疏散过程中的交通组织管理措施,包括:道路控制、禁行控制、停车设置以及人群疏散指导等。为检验措施的有效性,建立合理的评价指标——道路的饱和度、路段行车速度以及总的疏散时间等。
最后,选取武汉汉口江滩焰火晚会为实例,在以上研究方法的基础上,对该实例进行交通需求预测和疏散方案制定。完成武汉市路网基础数据准备工作后,根据大型活动中的四阶段法流程,确定常态交通分布,即最优的反推PA矩阵;根据城市的路阻情况确定具体的路阻函数中的系数;引入分配模型对其进行交通分配,得到交通需求信息;根据分配结果,提出相应的交通管制措施,包括设定单行道、改变交叉口的转向属性方案:并利用交通仿真软件TransCAD对实例的需求预测、疏散方案进行仿真,通过判断评价指标,得到所采取措施有效性的结论。
本文主要探讨了大型活动中的需求预测方法、疏散方案以及给出的应用实例,对大型活动的交通组织管理具有理论指导意义及参考价值。本文针对交通需求提出的疏散方案可以有效的缓解交通压力,因此具有一定的实用性。
In order to meet the requirements of the development of the city's cultural life as well as the public demand,urban large-scale events have been held increasingly frequently.The local traffic increase quickly in a short period of time because of the large-scale events,that it is no doubt to bring greater pressure to the city traffic that has been already very serious.Therefore,how to ensure that evacuation traffic safety,fast and smooth during the activity and to minimize effect to the normal city traffic,are urgently needed to resolve a problem for city traffic manager.
At home and abroad,most similar research is mainly aimed at the organized large-scale activity and special location of the targeted activity,such as Olympic Games, according to organizational plan before the events to guide the evacuation.However,the large-scale events common are usually held in opening location and it is difficult to control the crowd in and out.In view of the above problems,this article brought forward traffic demand forecasting methods based on the characteristics of evacuation during large-scale public events and studied evacuation traffic management measures,and analyzed the typical case.
Firstly,the characteristics of evacuation were studied during large-scale events in this paper.Studied in-depth the traffic demand forecasting methods in large-scale activities based on a four-stage method and got the best demand forecasting process. Confirming respectively the normal traffic distribution and the traffic caused by the activity in the region got the traffic distribution during large-scale activities.And baseding on evacuation traffic characteristics,selected stochastic user equilibrium model to do traffic assignment.
Then,based on method above,took traffic measures in the evacuation process, including road control,cut- traffic control,parking settings and populations guidance.In order to test the effectiveness of the measures,established a rational indicators -saturation of road,speed of traffic and the total evacuation time based on purpose and principle of large-scale evacuation.
Last,traffic demand was forecasted in Hankou bank,Wuhan based on the method above.After preparation of data network,confirmed the normal traffic distribution, namely the best PA matrix,according to the four-stage method in large-scale activities. And then,determined resistance coefficient of the road and introduced assignment model. Analyzed the demand and took appropriate traffic control measures,including setting one-way street,changing the properties of intersection after getting traffic demand. Finally,simulated the demand forecast and evacuation project with TransCAD,and concluded measures were effective with the evaluation index.
This article discussed the demand forecasting methods,and the evacuation program, as well as the application given in large-scale activities,which had reference value for the traffic organization and management.In this paper,the traffic evacuation program can be made to ease traffic pressure effectively,it has good practicality.
引文
[1]武汉市交通科学研究所.2006年武汉市交通发展年度报告,2006
[2]Federal High Administration,Managing Travel for Planned Special Event[R],Washington D.C.,2003
[3]Roper,DH.1984 Olympic Games.Transportation Research Board Special[R],Los Angeles,1987
[4]Cova T.J.,Johnson J.P.Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in urban-wildland interface[J].Environment and Planning,1997
[5]Lim E and Wolshon B.Modeling and Performance Assessment of Contraflow Evacuation Termination Points[J].Transportation Research Board 84th Annual Meeting,Washington,D.C.,2005
[6]Liu Y.,Lai X.,Chang G.A Two-Level Integrated Optimization Model for Planning of Emergency Evacuation:A Case Study of Ocean City under Hurrucane Evacution[J].Transportation Research Board 84th Annual Meeting,Washington,D.C.,2005
[7]Southworth F..Regional Evacuation Modeling:A State of the Art Review[R].Oak Ridge National Laboratory,1991
[8]FHWA Workshop.Transportation Operations During Major Evacuations:Hurricane Workshop,Organized by the FHWA,Atlanta June 26-28,2000:78-82
[9]Farahmand,Kambiz.Application of simulation modeling to emergency population evacuation.Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings,1997:1181 - 1188
[10]Eric Lim,Brian Wolshon.Modeling and Performance Assessment of Contraflow Evacuation Termination Points[J].Transportation Research,2005
[11]北京工业大学.奥运交通规划理论与方法[R].北京:北京交通大学交通运输学院,2005
[12]广州市公安局.第九届全国运动会期间交通组织实施方案研究[R].广州:广州市公安交警支队,2001
[13]南京市公安局.第十届全国运动会期间交通组织实施方案研究[R].南京:南京市公安交警支队,2005
[14]崔洪军.大型活动交通组织管理关键技术研究[D].南京:东南大学.2006
[15]洪峰.大型活动期间交通需求预测方法研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2004
[16]赵佳琪.大型活动交通组织和管理方法研究[D].长春:吉林大学交通学院,2004
[17]周鹤龙,徐士伟.大型活动的交通特征研究--以九运会开幕式为例,中国城市交通规划年会论文集,2003.09
[18]杨忠振.大型活动的交通组织方法研究[J].城市交通,2007(5):81-86
[19]User's Guide TransCAD,Transportation GIS Software.Caliper Software.2004
[20]刘灿齐.现代交通规划学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2001.78-283
[21]温基兴,陈祥麟,林增祥.路网疏散模式应用于警政机关疏散避难作为之研究[J].台湾:中央警察大学,1989:256-266
[22]王炜,徐吉谦,杨涛.城市交通规划理论及其应用[M].南京:东南大学出版社,1998
[23]Wardrop J.G;Some theoretical aspects of road traffic research.[A].In:Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers(1)[C].1952:325-378
[24]汪荣鑫.数理统计[M].西安:西安交通大学出版社,1986
[25]韦献兰,李海峰,耿彦斌.TransCAD平台下OD矩阵反推结果对比研究[J].公路,2007.06
[26]2006年交通发展年度报告[EB/OL].[2006].http://www.tranbbs.com/
[27]武汉交通科学研究所[EB/OL].http://www.whtsi.cn/newEbiz1/EbizPortalFG/portal/html/index.html
[28]刘灿齐.专适于城市道路网路的交通均衡分配模型[J].公路交通科技,2003.12
[29]张钰.城市交通紧急疏散管理方法及应用研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2006.4
[30]冯浩.交通运输领域突发公共事件应急预案的制定和实施[J].综合运输,2006.10
[31]NCHRP.Transportation Planning and Management for Special Events[R].Washington D.C.,2003
[32]蒋光胜,胡红,杨孝宽.奥运应急交通疏散预案及仿真研究.交通与物流.第六届交通运输领域国际学术会议论文集,2006
[33]《运筹学》教材编写组编.运筹学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2002.6
[34]王志和,凌云.Dijkstra最短路径算法的优化及其实现[J].微计算机信息,2007.11
[35]周伟,王秉纲.路段通行能力的理论探讨[J].交通运输工程学报,2001.06
[36]王殿海.交通流理论[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2002.09
[37]李硕,易武.长沙县公交规划客流预测与TransCAD应用[J].科学技术程,2005.10:1352-1353
[38]黎三平,陶志祥.TransCAD在城市轨道交通客流预测中的应用[J].铁道勘测与设计.2007(1).24-29
[39]蒋光胜.大城市突发事件交通组织和疏散对策研究[D].北京:北京工业大学.2006
[40]张宁.关于交通资源优化配置的几个问题[J].综合运输,2007.1:8-11
[41]孙小丽.武汉市跨江交通问题的研究[J].交通与运输.2002.05
[42]Hadas,Y.(Technion-Isreael Inst of Technology),Ceder A.Shortest path of emergency vehicles under uncentain urban traffic conditions.Transportation Research Record,1996.11:34-39
[43]DiGangi M.,Musolino G.,Russo E Analysis and comparison of several urban road transportation assignment models in emergency conditions.Sustainable World,Environment Health Risk,2003:247-257
[44]Wood W.B.Complex emergency response planning and coordination:Potential GIS applications.Geopolitics5:1:19-36
[45]石菘,陈娴.武汉主城区交通瓶颈透视及科学规划管理探讨[J].城市交通,2002.3
[46]Michael J.Cassidy,Robert L Bertini.Some traffic features at freeway bottlenecks[J],Transportation Research,Vol.33B,1999:25-42
[47]陈艳艳,史建港.震后交通需求预测的修正四阶段法[J].公路交通科技,2004.8:78-81
[48]马骥,裴玉龙.TransCAD软件在城市交通规划中的开发与应用.哈尔滨建筑大学学报,2002.5:118-122
[49]Yucheng Zhang.Modeling Traffic Impact under Special Events[D].University of Akron,2003
[50]崔洪军,陆建.大型活动交通管理措施及在“十运会”开幕式中的运用[J].现代城市研究,2006.5:68-73
[51]Monmonier,M,Giordano,A.1998.GIS in New York State County Emergency Management Offices.Applied Geographic Studies 2(2):95-109
[52]Mithilesh Jha,Katie Moore Behruz Pashaie.Emergency Evacuation Planning With Icroscopic Traffic Simulation.83rd Annual Meeting of TRB,Washington D.C,2004:121-124
[53]PARK R.Olympic Spectator Transportation System.Utah Transit Authority After-Action Report[R].Utah Transit Authority,2001:20-35
[54]Takashi Nagatani.Dynamical Transition in Merging Pedestrian Flow without Bottleneck[J].Physical A.2002.7:205-211.
[55]张生瑞,严海.城市公共交通规划的理论与实践[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2007
[56]Federal Highway Administration,U.S.Department of Transportation Evaluation of Travel Demand Management(TDM) Measures to Relieve Congestion,1990