基于农户视角的宅基地空心化影响因素研究
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摘要
明晰宅基地空心化形成机制是推进空心村治理与实施乡村振兴战略的重要前提。本文建立数理模型并运用分位数回归方法,从理论和实证层面探究宅基地空心化成因的差异性。结果表明:①调研地区的宅基地空心化率均值为29.14%,山地和丘陵的空心化程度远高于平原,中西部地区显著高于东部地区;②经济发展水平、地形状况、社会保障制度是宅基地空心化的重要影响因素;耕地资源禀赋、人口等社会因素、制度因素等影响随分位点而异;③家庭年总收入、村组区位对宅基地空心化的正向影响随分位点提高而增加,宅基地确权进度、"一户一宅"落实情况的正向影响仅在中低分位点呈上升趋势,对于"举家迁移"的影响并不明显;农户参保行为可显著抑制空心化程度的加剧,地形的负向影响呈"U"型分布。
Hollow village is the epitome of China's economic and social changes in the village scale, characterized by the decline of industries, the outmigration and the large existences of derelict lands and homestead, which poses a real threat to land resources, food security, village environment, social stability and rural governance. The research on the formation mechanism of homesteads hollowing is not only helpful for understanding the hollow village phenomenon in China, but also an important prerequisite for the promotion of hollow village governance and the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. Based on 1238 households' questionnaires,the paper establishes a mathematical model and uses quantile regression method to explore theoretically and empirically the differential causes of homestead hollowing. The quantile regression results show that:(1) the average estimated hollow rate of homesteads is 29.14%,which is much higher in mountainous and hilly areas than in plains areas, that is, 30.93%,35.58%, and 20.30%, respectively, and higher in central and western regions than in eastern regions, 31.21%, 34.29%, and 22.41%, respectively.(2) Homesteads hollowing is the result of more factors than one, of which, socio-economic development, terrain, village location and social security system are the dominant factors for homesteads hollowing, while the influences of cultivated land resource endowment, family size, the peasants' notion of "Jiaye",outmigration proportion and institutional factors vary across quantiles.(3) The positive impacts of household income and the distance from the township increases with the rising quantiles,while the impacts of land titling and the policy implementation of"one homestead for one "hu" only rise in the lower and median quantiles, but hardly statistically in upper quantile, which was mostly caused by integral outmigration. Additionally, the farmer's participation of new rural social pension insurance can significantly decrease the homesteads hollowing rate, while the negative effects of the terrain present a U-shaped distribution. Finally, the paper proposes some further research directions that can be developed, such as exploring the role of social network in the outmigration with the help of large-scale micro population database, and evaluating the land titling policy with the difference-in-difference method. The findings of this study can not only contribute to understanding the formation mechanism of homesteads hollowing, but also shed light on future studies on the targeted governance.
Hollow village is the epitome of China's economic and social changes in the village scale, characterized by the decline of industries, the outmigration and the large existences of derelict lands and homestead, which poses a real threat to land resources, food security, village environment, social stability and rural governance. The research on the formation mechanism of homesteads hollowing is not only helpful for understanding the hollow village phenomenon in China, but also an important prerequisite for the promotion of hollow village governance and the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. Based on 1238 households' questionnaires,the paper establishes a mathematical model and uses quantile regression method to explore theoretically and empirically the differential causes of homestead hollowing. The quantile regression results show that:(1) the average estimated hollow rate of homesteads is 29.14%,which is much higher in mountainous and hilly areas than in plains areas, that is, 30.93%,35.58%, and 20.30%, respectively, and higher in central and western regions than in eastern regions, 31.21%, 34.29%, and 22.41%, respectively.(2) Homesteads hollowing is the result of more factors than one, of which, socio-economic development, terrain, village location and social security system are the dominant factors for homesteads hollowing, while the influences of cultivated land resource endowment, family size, the peasants' notion of "Jiaye",outmigration proportion and institutional factors vary across quantiles.(3) The positive impacts of household income and the distance from the township increases with the rising quantiles,while the impacts of land titling and the policy implementation of"one homestead for one "hu" only rise in the lower and median quantiles, but hardly statistically in upper quantile, which was mostly caused by integral outmigration. Additionally, the farmer's participation of new rural social pension insurance can significantly decrease the homesteads hollowing rate, while the negative effects of the terrain present a U-shaped distribution. Finally, the paper proposes some further research directions that can be developed, such as exploring the role of social network in the outmigration with the help of large-scale micro population database, and evaluating the land titling policy with the difference-in-difference method. The findings of this study can not only contribute to understanding the formation mechanism of homesteads hollowing, but also shed light on future studies on the targeted governance.
引文
[1]刘彦随,刘玉.中国农村空心化问题研究的进展与展望.地理研究,2010,29(1):35-42.[Liu Yansui,Liu Yu.Geographical research and optimizing practice of rural hollowing in China.Geographical Research,2010,29(1):35-42.]
[2]崔卫国,李裕瑞,刘彦随.中国重点农区农村空心化的特征、机制与调控:以河南省郸城县为例.资源科学,2011,33(11):2014-2021.[Cui Weiguo,Li Yurui,Liu Yansui.Rural hollowing in key agricultural areas of China:Characteristics,mechanisms and countermeasures.Resources Science,2011,33(11):2014-2021.]
[3]Chen R,Chao Y E,Cai Y,et al.The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China:Past,present and trend.Land Use Policy,2014,40(4):101-110.
[4]刘建生,汪震,张韧,等.基于帕特南理论的空心村治理绩效评价:理论框架与指标体系构建.中国土地科学,2018,32(7):74-80.[Liu Jiansheng,Wang Zhen,Zhang Ren.The performance assessment framework and index system of hollowed village governance based on Putnam’s Theory.China Land Science,2018,32(7):74-80.]
[5]Graeme Smith.The hollow state:Rural governance in China.The China Quarterly,2010,203:601-618.
[6]王亚华,高瑞,孟庆国.中国农村公共事务治理的危机与响应.清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,31(2):23-29.[Wang Yahua,Gao Rui,Meng Qingguo.Crisis and response of Chinese rural public affair governance.Journal of Tsinghua University,2016,31(2):23-29.]
[7]龙花楼,李裕瑞,刘彦随.中国空心化村庄演化特征及其动力机制.地理学报,2009,64(10):1203-1213.[Long Hualou,Li Yurui,Liu Yansui.Analysis of evaluative characteristics and their driving mechanism of hollowing villages in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(10):1203-1213.]
[8]Pallot J.Rural depopulation and the restoration of the russian village under gorbachev.Soviet Studies,1990,42(4):655-674.
[9]De Montis A,Ledda A,Ganciu A,et al.Recovery of rural centers and“albergo diffuso”:A case study in Sardinia,Italy.Land Use Land,2015,47(4):12-28.
[10]Kakiuchi G H,Hasegawa M.Recent trends in rural to urban migration in Japan:The problem of depopulation.Tohoku University Science Reports Series 7:Geography,1979,29(1):47-61.
[11]Thompson C S.Depopulation in Rural Japan:Population Politics in Tōwa-chō.In:Traphagan J W,Knight J.Demographic Change and the Family in Japan’s Aging Society.New York:State University of New York Press,2003:89-106.
[12]Liu Y,Liu Y,Chen Y,et al.The process and driving forces of rural hollowing in China under rapid urbanization.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(6):876-888.
[13]姜绍静,罗泮.空心村问题研究进展与成果综述.中国人口.资源与环境,2014,24(6):51-58.[Jiang Shaojing,LuoPan.A literature review on hollow villages in China.China Population,Research and Environment,2014,24(6):51-58.]
[14]王介勇,刘彦随,陈玉福.黄淮海平原农区典型村庄用地扩展及其动力机制.地理研究,2010,29(10):1833-1840.[Wang Jieyong,Liu Yansui,Chen Yufu.Spatial expansion pattern and its dynamic mechanism of typical rural settlements in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Geographical Research,2010,29(10):1833-1840.]
[15]Liu Y,Lu S,Chen Y.Spatio-temporal change of urban-rural equalized development patterns in China and its driving factors.Journal of Rural Studies,2013,32(32):320-330.
[16]谭雪兰,于思远,欧阳巧玲,等.快速城市化区域农村空心化测度与影响因素研究:以长株潭地区为例.地理研究,2017,36(4):684-694.[Tan Xuelan,Yu Siyuan,OuYang Qiaoling,et al.Assessment and influencing factors of rural hollowing in the rapid urbanization region:A case study of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.Geographical Research,2017,36(4):684-694.]
[17]杨忍,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国农村空心化综合测度与分区.地理研究,2012,31(9):1697-1706.[Yang Ren,Liu Yansui,Chen Yangfen.Comprehensive measure and partition of rural hollowing in China.Geographical Research,2012,31(9):1697-1706.]
[18]宋伟,陈百明,张英.中国村庄宅基地空心化评价及其影响因素.地理研究,2013,32(1):20-28.[Song Wei,Chen Baiming,Zhang Ying.Typical survey and analysis on influencing factors of village-hollowing of rural housing land in China.Geographical Research,2013,32(1):20-28.]
[19]周洪亮.户的视角下的农村宅基地使用权的取得研究.中国农村观察,2007,(5):38-43.[Zhou Hongliang.Research on the acquisition of the right to use rural homestead from the perspective of households.China Rural Survey,2007,(5):38-43.]
[20]陈小君,蒋省三.宅基地使用权制度:规范解析、实践挑战及其立法回应.管理世界,2010,(10):1-12.[Chen Xiaojun,Jiang Xingsan.Homestead use right system:normative analysis,practical challenge and legislative response.Management World,2010,(10):1-12.]
[21]朱晓华,陈秧分,刘彦随,等.空心村土地整治潜力调查与评价技术方法:以山东省禹城市为例.地理学报,2010,65(6):736-744.[Zhu Xiaohua,Chen Yangfen,Liu Yansui,et al.Technique and method of rural land consolidation potential investigation and assessment:A case study of Yucheng city,Shandong province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(6):736-744.]
[22]Li Y,Liu Y,Long H,et al.Community-based rural residential land consolidation and allocation can help to revitalize hollowed villages in traditional agricultural areas of China:Evidence from Dancheng county,Henan province.Land Use Policy,2014,39:188-198.
[23]胡智超,彭建,杜悦悦,等.基于供给侧结构性改革的空心村综合整治研究.地理学报,2016,71(12):2119-2128.[Hu Zhichao,Peng jian,Du Yueyue,et al.Reconstructing hollow villages in the view of structural reform of the supply side.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(12):2119-2128.]
[24]赵楠,冯健.空心村村民居住生活空间特征及其优化重构:对河南邓州市8个村庄的调查.人文地理,2016,31(6):29-38.[Zhao Nan,Feng Jian.Restructuring of rural residential space in hollow village:A case study of eight villages in Dengzhou.Human Geography,2016,31(6):29-38.]
[25]Li Y,Li Y,Westlund H,et al.Urban-rural transformation in relation to cultivated land conversion in China:Implications for optimizing land use and balanced regional development.Land Use Policy,2015,47:218-224.
[26]王介勇,刘彦随,陈秧分.农村空心化程度影响因素的实证研究:基于山东省村庄调查数据.自然资源学报,2013,28(1):10-18.[Wang Jieyong,Liu Yansui,Chen Yangfen.Empirical analysis on influencing factors of the hollowing village degree:Based on the survey data of sample villages in Shandong province.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(1):10-18.]
[27]于伟,刘本城,宋金平.城镇化进程中农户宅基地退出的决策行为及影响因素.地理研究,2016,35(3):551-560.[Yu Wei,Liu Bencheng,Song Jinping.A study on farmers'willingness to quit rural residential lands and its influencing factors.Geographical Research,2016,35(3):551-560.]
[28]Janvry A D,Emerick K,Navarro M G,et al.Delinking Land Rights from Land Use:Certification and Migration in Mexico.Toronto:Society for Economic Dynamics(SED).2014 Annual Meeting Papers of the Society for Economic Dynamics.2014:138.
[29]Stern M J,Messer C.How family members stay in touch:A quantitative investigation of core family networks.Marriage&Family Review,2009,45(6-8):654-676.
[30]Koenker R,Bassett G.Regression quantiles.Econometrica,1978,46(1):33-50.
(1)由于本文实证研究未涉及有关土地生产率因素对空心村形成的影响，因此暂不讨论该因素的作用。
(2)对于长期空置且户主不在当地的情况，课题组成员找当地村干部和邻居或电话联系户主开展调查，或待该户主（家庭成员）春节期间返乡时展开面对面调查；对长期空置但户主已在当地另建新房且入住新房的，课题组成员对户主直接进行访问。
(3)具体调查中，将上述因素转化为以下3个问题：您对“多一处宅基，多一份家业”观念的看法。您在建房时是否有攀比心理（如别人建了大面积的新房，我也很想建，否则没面子）。您在建房时是否有选址方面的偏好（如看风水等）。
(4)问卷题项设置时，采用分档划分的形式以方便村民填写。
[2]崔卫国,李裕瑞,刘彦随.中国重点农区农村空心化的特征、机制与调控:以河南省郸城县为例.资源科学,2011,33(11):2014-2021.[Cui Weiguo,Li Yurui,Liu Yansui.Rural hollowing in key agricultural areas of China:Characteristics,mechanisms and countermeasures.Resources Science,2011,33(11):2014-2021.]
[3]Chen R,Chao Y E,Cai Y,et al.The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China:Past,present and trend.Land Use Policy,2014,40(4):101-110.
[4]刘建生,汪震,张韧,等.基于帕特南理论的空心村治理绩效评价:理论框架与指标体系构建.中国土地科学,2018,32(7):74-80.[Liu Jiansheng,Wang Zhen,Zhang Ren.The performance assessment framework and index system of hollowed village governance based on Putnam’s Theory.China Land Science,2018,32(7):74-80.]
[5]Graeme Smith.The hollow state:Rural governance in China.The China Quarterly,2010,203:601-618.
[6]王亚华,高瑞,孟庆国.中国农村公共事务治理的危机与响应.清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,31(2):23-29.[Wang Yahua,Gao Rui,Meng Qingguo.Crisis and response of Chinese rural public affair governance.Journal of Tsinghua University,2016,31(2):23-29.]
[7]龙花楼,李裕瑞,刘彦随.中国空心化村庄演化特征及其动力机制.地理学报,2009,64(10):1203-1213.[Long Hualou,Li Yurui,Liu Yansui.Analysis of evaluative characteristics and their driving mechanism of hollowing villages in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(10):1203-1213.]
[8]Pallot J.Rural depopulation and the restoration of the russian village under gorbachev.Soviet Studies,1990,42(4):655-674.
[9]De Montis A,Ledda A,Ganciu A,et al.Recovery of rural centers and“albergo diffuso”:A case study in Sardinia,Italy.Land Use Land,2015,47(4):12-28.
[10]Kakiuchi G H,Hasegawa M.Recent trends in rural to urban migration in Japan:The problem of depopulation.Tohoku University Science Reports Series 7:Geography,1979,29(1):47-61.
[11]Thompson C S.Depopulation in Rural Japan:Population Politics in Tōwa-chō.In:Traphagan J W,Knight J.Demographic Change and the Family in Japan’s Aging Society.New York:State University of New York Press,2003:89-106.
[12]Liu Y,Liu Y,Chen Y,et al.The process and driving forces of rural hollowing in China under rapid urbanization.Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(6):876-888.
[13]姜绍静,罗泮.空心村问题研究进展与成果综述.中国人口.资源与环境,2014,24(6):51-58.[Jiang Shaojing,LuoPan.A literature review on hollow villages in China.China Population,Research and Environment,2014,24(6):51-58.]
[14]王介勇,刘彦随,陈玉福.黄淮海平原农区典型村庄用地扩展及其动力机制.地理研究,2010,29(10):1833-1840.[Wang Jieyong,Liu Yansui,Chen Yufu.Spatial expansion pattern and its dynamic mechanism of typical rural settlements in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.Geographical Research,2010,29(10):1833-1840.]
[15]Liu Y,Lu S,Chen Y.Spatio-temporal change of urban-rural equalized development patterns in China and its driving factors.Journal of Rural Studies,2013,32(32):320-330.
[16]谭雪兰,于思远,欧阳巧玲,等.快速城市化区域农村空心化测度与影响因素研究:以长株潭地区为例.地理研究,2017,36(4):684-694.[Tan Xuelan,Yu Siyuan,OuYang Qiaoling,et al.Assessment and influencing factors of rural hollowing in the rapid urbanization region:A case study of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.Geographical Research,2017,36(4):684-694.]
[17]杨忍,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国农村空心化综合测度与分区.地理研究,2012,31(9):1697-1706.[Yang Ren,Liu Yansui,Chen Yangfen.Comprehensive measure and partition of rural hollowing in China.Geographical Research,2012,31(9):1697-1706.]
[18]宋伟,陈百明,张英.中国村庄宅基地空心化评价及其影响因素.地理研究,2013,32(1):20-28.[Song Wei,Chen Baiming,Zhang Ying.Typical survey and analysis on influencing factors of village-hollowing of rural housing land in China.Geographical Research,2013,32(1):20-28.]
[19]周洪亮.户的视角下的农村宅基地使用权的取得研究.中国农村观察,2007,(5):38-43.[Zhou Hongliang.Research on the acquisition of the right to use rural homestead from the perspective of households.China Rural Survey,2007,(5):38-43.]
[20]陈小君,蒋省三.宅基地使用权制度:规范解析、实践挑战及其立法回应.管理世界,2010,(10):1-12.[Chen Xiaojun,Jiang Xingsan.Homestead use right system:normative analysis,practical challenge and legislative response.Management World,2010,(10):1-12.]
[21]朱晓华,陈秧分,刘彦随,等.空心村土地整治潜力调查与评价技术方法:以山东省禹城市为例.地理学报,2010,65(6):736-744.[Zhu Xiaohua,Chen Yangfen,Liu Yansui,et al.Technique and method of rural land consolidation potential investigation and assessment:A case study of Yucheng city,Shandong province.Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(6):736-744.]
[22]Li Y,Liu Y,Long H,et al.Community-based rural residential land consolidation and allocation can help to revitalize hollowed villages in traditional agricultural areas of China:Evidence from Dancheng county,Henan province.Land Use Policy,2014,39:188-198.
[23]胡智超,彭建,杜悦悦,等.基于供给侧结构性改革的空心村综合整治研究.地理学报,2016,71(12):2119-2128.[Hu Zhichao,Peng jian,Du Yueyue,et al.Reconstructing hollow villages in the view of structural reform of the supply side.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(12):2119-2128.]
[24]赵楠,冯健.空心村村民居住生活空间特征及其优化重构:对河南邓州市8个村庄的调查.人文地理,2016,31(6):29-38.[Zhao Nan,Feng Jian.Restructuring of rural residential space in hollow village:A case study of eight villages in Dengzhou.Human Geography,2016,31(6):29-38.]
[25]Li Y,Li Y,Westlund H,et al.Urban-rural transformation in relation to cultivated land conversion in China:Implications for optimizing land use and balanced regional development.Land Use Policy,2015,47:218-224.
[26]王介勇,刘彦随,陈秧分.农村空心化程度影响因素的实证研究:基于山东省村庄调查数据.自然资源学报,2013,28(1):10-18.[Wang Jieyong,Liu Yansui,Chen Yangfen.Empirical analysis on influencing factors of the hollowing village degree:Based on the survey data of sample villages in Shandong province.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(1):10-18.]
[27]于伟,刘本城,宋金平.城镇化进程中农户宅基地退出的决策行为及影响因素.地理研究,2016,35(3):551-560.[Yu Wei,Liu Bencheng,Song Jinping.A study on farmers'willingness to quit rural residential lands and its influencing factors.Geographical Research,2016,35(3):551-560.]
[28]Janvry A D,Emerick K,Navarro M G,et al.Delinking Land Rights from Land Use:Certification and Migration in Mexico.Toronto:Society for Economic Dynamics(SED).2014 Annual Meeting Papers of the Society for Economic Dynamics.2014:138.
[29]Stern M J,Messer C.How family members stay in touch:A quantitative investigation of core family networks.Marriage&Family Review,2009,45(6-8):654-676.
[30]Koenker R,Bassett G.Regression quantiles.Econometrica,1978,46(1):33-50.
(1)由于本文实证研究未涉及有关土地生产率因素对空心村形成的影响，因此暂不讨论该因素的作用。
(2)对于长期空置且户主不在当地的情况，课题组成员找当地村干部和邻居或电话联系户主开展调查，或待该户主（家庭成员）春节期间返乡时展开面对面调查；对长期空置但户主已在当地另建新房且入住新房的，课题组成员对户主直接进行访问。
(3)具体调查中，将上述因素转化为以下3个问题：您对“多一处宅基，多一份家业”观念的看法。您在建房时是否有攀比心理（如别人建了大面积的新房，我也很想建，否则没面子）。您在建房时是否有选址方面的偏好（如看风水等）。
(4)问卷题项设置时，采用分档划分的形式以方便村民填写。