CENTURY模型在不同生态系统的土壤有机碳动态预测研究进展
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摘要
CENTURY模型是国际上著名的生物地球化学模型之一。本研究系统介绍了CENTURY模型的运行机理及过程,分析和总结该模型在草地、农田、森林生态系统中土壤有机碳(SOC)的研究成果,并归纳了影响其模拟精度的主要因素。结果表明,土壤质地和土壤养分是影响CENTURY模型在草地生态系统应用的关键因素,且该模型在荒漠草原生态系统的适应性较高;不同农业管理模式是影响SOC模拟精度的因素之一,间作农业模式下模拟SOC的精度较高;CENTURY模拟森林生态系统的枯枝落叶层的有机质时存在结构缺陷,这导致CENTURY模型在草地和农田系统的模拟效果优于森林生态系统。由于CENTURY模型最初是基于草地生态系统而开发,其模型参数在不同地域的草地生态系统的普适性较高;过多的人为干预增加了CENTURY模型在农田生态系统模拟的不确定性,从而会出现模拟结果不稳定的现象;通过调查掌握详细的农田历史管理制度和方式,准确控制模拟进程,可以有效提高模拟精度;森林生态系统的模拟结果可以服务于管理措施的制定,CENTURY模型结合GIS可以实现单点模拟向区域模拟的转变。
The CENTURY model,designed to predict soil C,N,P,and S dynamics in a range of ecosystems,is one of the most famous biogeochemical models in the world.The research reported here systematically examines the operating mechanisms and processes of the CENTURY model,and research data on results of soil organic carbon were analyzed and collated for grassland,farmland and forest ecosystems using this model.It was found that soil texture and soil nutrient levels are key factors influencing the application of the CENTURY model in grassland ecosystems,and that the model has high predictive accuracy in desert grassland.Agricultural management is one of the factors most strongly affecting soil organic carbon(SOC)simulation accuracy.The SOC simulation accuracy was higher in intercrop systems than in monocrop scenarios.CENTURY had structural defects in simulating soil organic matter in the litter layer of forest ecosystems;hence the CENTURY model performs better in the simulation of grassland and farmland systems than when simulating forest ecosystems.Since the CENTURY model was originally developed for work on grassland ecosystems,its model parameters are more universally applicable to grassland ecosystems in different regions.Excessive human intervention would increase the uncertainty factor in CENTURY modeling of agro-ecosystems,potentially resulting in instable simulation results.The simulation accuracy could be substantially improved through collecting data on and accurately accounting for historical farm system and management methodologies practiced,when performing the simulation.The simulation results for forest ecosystems can be used for the formulation of management measures.In addition,scaling up from single-point simulation to the regional level could be achieved by the integration of CENTURY model results into a GIS approach.
The CENTURY model,designed to predict soil C,N,P,and S dynamics in a range of ecosystems,is one of the most famous biogeochemical models in the world.The research reported here systematically examines the operating mechanisms and processes of the CENTURY model,and research data on results of soil organic carbon were analyzed and collated for grassland,farmland and forest ecosystems using this model.It was found that soil texture and soil nutrient levels are key factors influencing the application of the CENTURY model in grassland ecosystems,and that the model has high predictive accuracy in desert grassland.Agricultural management is one of the factors most strongly affecting soil organic carbon(SOC)simulation accuracy.The SOC simulation accuracy was higher in intercrop systems than in monocrop scenarios.CENTURY had structural defects in simulating soil organic matter in the litter layer of forest ecosystems;hence the CENTURY model performs better in the simulation of grassland and farmland systems than when simulating forest ecosystems.Since the CENTURY model was originally developed for work on grassland ecosystems,its model parameters are more universally applicable to grassland ecosystems in different regions.Excessive human intervention would increase the uncertainty factor in CENTURY modeling of agro-ecosystems,potentially resulting in instable simulation results.The simulation accuracy could be substantially improved through collecting data on and accurately accounting for historical farm system and management methodologies practiced,when performing the simulation.The simulation results for forest ecosystems can be used for the formulation of management measures.In addition,scaling up from single-point simulation to the regional level could be achieved by the integration of CENTURY model results into a GIS approach.
引文
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[3] Falkowski P,Scholes R J,Boyle E,et al.The global carbon cycle:A test of our knowledge of earth as a system.Science,2000,290(5490):291.
[4] Jenkinson D S,Adams D E,Wild A.Model estimates of CO2emissions from soil in response to global warming.Nature,1991,351(6324):304-306.
[5] Watson R T,Noble I R,Bolin B,et al.Land use,land-use change and forestry:A special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2000.
[6] Lal R.Deforestation and land-use effects on soil degradation and rehabilitation in western Nigeria.II.Soil chemical properties.Land Degradation and Development,1996,7(2):87-98.
[7] Ashagrie Y,Zech W,Guggenberger G,et al.Soil aggregation,and total and particulate organic matter following conversion of native forests to continuous cultivation in Ethiopia.Soil and Tillage Research,2007,94(1):101-108.
[8] Berhongaray G,Alvarez R,Paepe J D,et al.Land use effects on soil carbon in the Argentine Pampas.Geoderma,2013,192(1):97-110.
[9] Twongyirwe R,Sheil D,Majaliwa J G M,et al.Variability of soil organic carbon stocks under different land uses:A study in an afro-montane landscape in southwestern Uganda.Geoderma,2013,193/194(2):282-289.
[10] Lal R.Potential of desertification control to sequester carbon and mitigate the greenhouse effect.Climatic Change,2001,51(1):35-72.
[11] Degryze S,Six J,Paustian K,et al.Soil organic carbon pool changes following land-use conversions.Global Change Biology,2010,10(7):1120-1132.
[12] Cantarello E,Newton A C,Hill R A.Potential effects of future land-use change on regional carbon stocks in the UK.Environmental Science and Policy,2011,14(1):40-52.
[13] Li Y Q,Brandle J,Awada T,et al.Accumulation of carbon and nitrogen in the plant-soil system after afforestation of active sand dunes in China's Horqin Sandy Land.Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2013,177:75-84.
[14] Zhang C,Liu G B,Xue S,et al.Soil organic carbon and total nitrogen storage as affected by land use;in a small watershed of the Loess Plateau,China.European Journal of Soil Biology,2013,54(1):16-24.
[15] Yu S S,Dou S,Yang J M.Application of CENTURY model in the research of soil organic carbon.Soil and Crop,2014,(1):10-14.于沙沙,窦森,杨靖民.CENTURY模型在土壤有机碳研究中的应用.土壤与作物,2014,(1):10-14.
[16] Steffen W L,Walker B H,Ingram J S,et al.Global change and terrestrial ecosystems:The operational plan.IGBP report no 21.Stockholm:International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme,1992.
[17] Batjes N H,Sombroek W G.Possibilities for carbon sequestration in tropical and subtropical soils.Global Change Biology,2010,3(2):161-173.
[18] Bhattacharyya T,Pal D K,Williams S,et al.Evaluating the Century C model using two long-term fertilizer trials representing humid and semi-arid sites from India.Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2010,139(1):264-272.
[19] Cep C,Paustian K M,Victoria R L,et al.Modeling changes in soil organic matter in Amazon forest to pasture conversion with the Century model.Global Change Biology,2004,10(5):815-832.
[20] Cerri C E P,Easter M,Paustian K,et al.Simulating SOC changes in 11land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models.Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2007,122(1):46-57.
[21] Cerri C E P,Easter M,Paustian K,et al.Predicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Brazilian Amazon between2000and 2030.Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2007,122(1):58-72.
[22] Tornquist C G,Gassman P W,Mielniczuk J,et al.Spatially explicit simulations of soil C dynamics in Southern Brazil:Integrating century and GIS with i_Century.Geoderma,2009,150(3):404-414.
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