《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的环境健康效果评估
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摘要
为了定量评估《大气十条》实施带来的环境健康效益,本文首先依据PM_(2.5)浓度和人口数据,分析2013～2017年全国人口加权浓度的变化,其次利用Ben MAP模型对全国338个地级及以上城市2013年PM_(2.5)基准情景和2017年PM_(2.5)控制情景进行分析,定量分析全国31个省(市)及338个地级及以上城市减少过早死亡人数.结果表明,由于PM_(2.5)浓度大幅下降,2013～2017年全国PM_(2.5)人口加权浓度呈逐年下降趋势;北京、天津、河北等京津冀及周边地区减少过早死亡人数最多. 2017年全国280个城市避免过早死亡人数有所增加,58个城市避免过早死亡人数有所下降.以WHO过渡期第1阶段目标值(PM_(2.5)年均浓度为35μg·m-3)作为控制情景,估算2013年全国过早死亡人数约为101 293人,2017年约为41 080人,《大气十条》的实施大约避免60 213人过早死亡.依据支付意愿法调查结果,估算增加的健康效益约为549. 7亿元.
To quantitatively assess the health benefits brought by the implementation of the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control,we firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of PM_(2.5) population-weighted concentrations over China from 2013 to 2017.The Ben MAP model was used to analyze the differences in premature death between the PM_(2.5) baseline scenario in 2013 and the control scenario in 2017 in 338 prefecture-level cities nationwide,so as to quantitatively analyze the number of premature deaths in 31 provinces. The results show that compared with other provinces,the largest reduction in premature deaths due to the significant decrease of PM_(2.5) concentration occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding regions,and the environmental health benefits from air quality have been greatly improved. The results show that from 2013 to 2017 the population weighted PM_(2.5) concentration was decreasing year by year due to the significant decrease in PM_(2.5) concentration; Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,and the surrounding areas witnessed the largest reduction in premature deaths. In 2017,the number of avoided premature deaths in 280 prefecture-level cities nationwide increased,but declined in 58 cities. Taking the target value of the first phase of the WHO transition period( an annual average PM_(2.5) concentration of 35 μg·m-3) as the control scenario,it is estimated that the number of premature deaths in 2013 was approximately 101 293,and in 2017 was approximately 41 080. The implementation of the Action Plan helped to avoid approximately 60 213 premature deaths. According to the method of‘willingness to pay',the monetary benefits are estimated to be approximately 54. 97 billion yuan.
To quantitatively assess the health benefits brought by the implementation of the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control,we firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of PM_(2.5) population-weighted concentrations over China from 2013 to 2017.The Ben MAP model was used to analyze the differences in premature death between the PM_(2.5) baseline scenario in 2013 and the control scenario in 2017 in 338 prefecture-level cities nationwide,so as to quantitatively analyze the number of premature deaths in 31 provinces. The results show that compared with other provinces,the largest reduction in premature deaths due to the significant decrease of PM_(2.5) concentration occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding regions,and the environmental health benefits from air quality have been greatly improved. The results show that from 2013 to 2017 the population weighted PM_(2.5) concentration was decreasing year by year due to the significant decrease in PM_(2.5) concentration; Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,and the surrounding areas witnessed the largest reduction in premature deaths. In 2017,the number of avoided premature deaths in 280 prefecture-level cities nationwide increased,but declined in 58 cities. Taking the target value of the first phase of the WHO transition period( an annual average PM_(2.5) concentration of 35 μg·m-3) as the control scenario,it is estimated that the number of premature deaths in 2013 was approximately 101 293,and in 2017 was approximately 41 080. The implementation of the Action Plan helped to avoid approximately 60 213 premature deaths. According to the method of‘willingness to pay',the monetary benefits are estimated to be approximately 54. 97 billion yuan.
引文
[1]王金南,雷宇,宁淼.实施《大气污染防治行动计划》:向PM2. 5宣战[J].环境保护,2014,42(6):28-31.
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[7] Burnett R T,Cakmak S,Brook J R,et al. The role of particulate size and chemistry in the association between summertime ambient air pollution and hospitalization for cardiorespiratory diseases[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,1997,105(6):614-620.
[8]常桂秋,潘小川,谢学琴,等.北京市大气污染与城区居民死亡率关系的时间序列分析[J].卫生研究,2003,32(6):565-568.Chang G Q,Pan X C,Xie X Q,et al. Time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in Beijing[J]. Journal of Hygiene Research,2003,32(6):565-568.
[9]於方,过孝民,张衍燊,等. 2004年中国大气污染造成的健康经济损失评估[J].环境与健康杂志,2007,24(12):999-1003.
[10] Ma G X,Wang J N,Yu F,et al. An assessment of the potential health benefits of realizing the goals for PM10in the updated Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard[J]. Frontiers of Environmental Science&Engineering,2016,10(2):288-298.
[11]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.珠江三角洲地区大气污染对人群健康的影响[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(7):997-1003.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z R,et al. Impact of exposure to air pollutants on human health effects in Pearl River Delta[J].China Environmental Science,2010,30(7):997-1003.
[12]秦雨,张强,李鑫,等.中国燃煤电厂大气污染物排放的健康影响特征[J].环境科学,2018,39(12):5289-5295.Qin Y,Zhang Q,Li X,et al. Patterns of mortality from air pollutant emissions in China's coal-fired power plants[J].Environmental Science,2018,39(12):5289-5295.
[13]魏国茹,史兴民.西安市PM2. 5健康损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2018,39(7):3014-3021.Wei G R,Shi X M. Evaluation the extent of health damage caused by PM2. 5particulate in Xi'an City[J]. Environmental Science,2018,39(7):3014-3021.
[14]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2. 5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.Xie Y B,Chen J,Li W. An assessment of PM2. 5related health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive high-level exposure during heavy haze days[J]. Environmental Science,2014,35(1):1-8.
[15]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(10):1034-1040.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z R,et al. Exposure-response functions for health effects of ambient particulate matter pollution applicable for China[J]. China Environmental Science,2009,29(10):1034-1040.
[16]刘晓云,谢鹏,刘兆荣,等.珠江三角洲可吸入颗粒物污染急性健康效应的经济损失评价[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(5):829-834.Liu X Y,Xie P,Liu Z R,et al. Economic assessment of acute health impact due to inhalable particulate air pollution in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(5):829-834.
[17]阚海东,陈秉衡.我国部分城市大气污染对健康影响的研究10年回顾[J].中华预防医学杂志,2002,36(1):59-61.
[18]屈金娥.基于BenMAP的杭州市控制空气污染的健康效益评估[D].杭州:杭州电子科技大学,2014.
[19]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2. 5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.Huang D S,Zhang S Q. Health benefit evaluation for PM2. 5pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(1):166-174.
[20]段显明,屈金娥.基于BenMAP的珠三角PM10污染健康经济影响评估[J].环境保护与循环经济,2013,33(12):46-51.
[21]雷宇,薛文博,张衍燊,等.国家《大气污染防治行动计划》健康效益评估[J].中国环境管理,2015,7(5):50-53.Lei Y,Xue W B,Zhang Y S,et al. Health benefit evaluation for air pollution prevention and control action plan in China[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2015,7(5):50-53.
[22]杨复沫,贺克斌,马永亮,等.北京PM2. 5浓度的变化特征及其与PM10、TSP的关系[J].中国环境科学,2002,22(6):506-510.Yang F M,He K B,Ma Y L,et al. Variation characteristics of PM2. 5concentration and its relationship with PM10and TSP in Beijing[J]. China Environmental Science,2002,22(6):506-510.
[23]徐宏辉.北京及周边地区大气气溶胶的质量浓度和无机组分的特征及其来源研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院(大气物理研究所),2007.
[24]国家卫生健康委员会. 2018年中国卫生健康统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2018.
[25]国务院人口普查办公室,国家统计局人口和就业统计司.中国2010年人口普查分乡、镇、街道资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[26]中华人民共和国国家统计局.人口分省年度数据[EB/OL].http://data. stats. gov. cn/easyquery. htm? cn=E0103,2018-12-21.
[2]生态环境部.关于《大气污染防治行动计划》实施情况终期考核结果的通报[EB/OL]. http://www. mee. gov. cn/gkml/sthjbgw/stbgth/201806/t20180601_442262. htm,2018-12-25.
[3] Kan H D,London S J,Chen G H,et al. Differentiating the effects of fine and coarse particles on daily mortality in Shanghai,China[J]. Environment International,2007,33(3):376-384.
[4] PopeⅢC A,Burnett R T,Thun M J,et al. Lung cancer,cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution[J]. JAMA-Journal of the American Medical Association,2002,287(9):1132-1141.
[5] Dockery D W,Pope C A,Xu X P,et al. An association between air pollution and mortality in six U. S. cities[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine,1993,329(24):1753-1759.
[6] Samet J M,Dominici F,Curriero F C,et al. Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 U. S. cities,1987-1994[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine,2000,343(24):1742-1749.
[7] Burnett R T,Cakmak S,Brook J R,et al. The role of particulate size and chemistry in the association between summertime ambient air pollution and hospitalization for cardiorespiratory diseases[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,1997,105(6):614-620.
[8]常桂秋,潘小川,谢学琴,等.北京市大气污染与城区居民死亡率关系的时间序列分析[J].卫生研究,2003,32(6):565-568.Chang G Q,Pan X C,Xie X Q,et al. Time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in Beijing[J]. Journal of Hygiene Research,2003,32(6):565-568.
[9]於方,过孝民,张衍燊,等. 2004年中国大气污染造成的健康经济损失评估[J].环境与健康杂志,2007,24(12):999-1003.
[10] Ma G X,Wang J N,Yu F,et al. An assessment of the potential health benefits of realizing the goals for PM10in the updated Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard[J]. Frontiers of Environmental Science&Engineering,2016,10(2):288-298.
[11]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.珠江三角洲地区大气污染对人群健康的影响[J].中国环境科学,2010,30(7):997-1003.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z R,et al. Impact of exposure to air pollutants on human health effects in Pearl River Delta[J].China Environmental Science,2010,30(7):997-1003.
[12]秦雨,张强,李鑫,等.中国燃煤电厂大气污染物排放的健康影响特征[J].环境科学,2018,39(12):5289-5295.Qin Y,Zhang Q,Li X,et al. Patterns of mortality from air pollutant emissions in China's coal-fired power plants[J].Environmental Science,2018,39(12):5289-5295.
[13]魏国茹,史兴民.西安市PM2. 5健康损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2018,39(7):3014-3021.Wei G R,Shi X M. Evaluation the extent of health damage caused by PM2. 5particulate in Xi'an City[J]. Environmental Science,2018,39(7):3014-3021.
[14]谢元博,陈娟,李巍.雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2. 5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估[J].环境科学,2014,35(1):1-8.Xie Y B,Chen J,Li W. An assessment of PM2. 5related health risks and impaired values of Beijing residents in a consecutive high-level exposure during heavy haze days[J]. Environmental Science,2014,35(1):1-8.
[15]谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(10):1034-1040.Xie P,Liu X Y,Liu Z R,et al. Exposure-response functions for health effects of ambient particulate matter pollution applicable for China[J]. China Environmental Science,2009,29(10):1034-1040.
[16]刘晓云,谢鹏,刘兆荣,等.珠江三角洲可吸入颗粒物污染急性健康效应的经济损失评价[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(5):829-834.Liu X Y,Xie P,Liu Z R,et al. Economic assessment of acute health impact due to inhalable particulate air pollution in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2010,46(5):829-834.
[17]阚海东,陈秉衡.我国部分城市大气污染对健康影响的研究10年回顾[J].中华预防医学杂志,2002,36(1):59-61.
[18]屈金娥.基于BenMAP的杭州市控制空气污染的健康效益评估[D].杭州:杭州电子科技大学,2014.
[19]黄德生,张世秋.京津冀地区控制PM2. 5污染的健康效益评估[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(1):166-174.Huang D S,Zhang S Q. Health benefit evaluation for PM2. 5pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(1):166-174.
[20]段显明,屈金娥.基于BenMAP的珠三角PM10污染健康经济影响评估[J].环境保护与循环经济,2013,33(12):46-51.
[21]雷宇,薛文博,张衍燊,等.国家《大气污染防治行动计划》健康效益评估[J].中国环境管理,2015,7(5):50-53.Lei Y,Xue W B,Zhang Y S,et al. Health benefit evaluation for air pollution prevention and control action plan in China[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2015,7(5):50-53.
[22]杨复沫,贺克斌,马永亮,等.北京PM2. 5浓度的变化特征及其与PM10、TSP的关系[J].中国环境科学,2002,22(6):506-510.Yang F M,He K B,Ma Y L,et al. Variation characteristics of PM2. 5concentration and its relationship with PM10and TSP in Beijing[J]. China Environmental Science,2002,22(6):506-510.
[23]徐宏辉.北京及周边地区大气气溶胶的质量浓度和无机组分的特征及其来源研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院(大气物理研究所),2007.
[24]国家卫生健康委员会. 2018年中国卫生健康统计年鉴[M].北京:中国协和医科大学出版社,2018.
[25]国务院人口普查办公室,国家统计局人口和就业统计司.中国2010年人口普查分乡、镇、街道资料[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012.
[26]中华人民共和国国家统计局.人口分省年度数据[EB/OL].http://data. stats. gov. cn/easyquery. htm? cn=E0103,2018-12-21.