气候变化对河北坝上地区草地土壤风蚀扬尘季节和年排放速率的影响
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摘要
以全球气候模式NorESM1-M产生的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5气候变化情景数据和原环保部推荐的土壤风蚀扬尘计算方法,模拟分析了未来气候变化对河北坝上砂粘壤土、粘壤土、壤粘土、砂壤土、砂粘土和风沙土草地土壤风蚀扬尘总可悬浮颗粒物(Total Suspended Particle,TSP)、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的季节及年排放速率的影响。结果表明:气候变化影响下坝上地区气温上升,年降水量和风速波动较大、并存在上升和下降的趋势。相比基准情景,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下,各土壤风蚀扬尘TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)季节排放速率在春季分别高15%、47%、28%和46%;秋季分别高17%、54%、45%和38%;冬季分别低36%、42%、39%和44%;夏季,在RCP2.6情景下低1%,在RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景下分别高14%、3%和7%;未来气候变化情景下,各土壤风蚀扬尘TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)年排放速率分别高25%、54%、35%和54%。基准和未来气候变化情景下,土壤风蚀扬尘TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的季节和年排放速率及其差异从高到低均依次为砂粘壤土、风沙土、砂壤土、粘壤土、壤粘土和砂粘土。表明未来气候变化将使河北坝上地区草地土壤风蚀扬尘排放速率增加,但存在季节和气候变化情景方面的差异。
Based on the data of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios p roduced by the global climate model of NorESMl-M and calculation method of dust emission by soil wind erosion recommended by former Ministry of Environmental Protection of People's Republic of China,the effects of future climate change on the seasonal and annual emission rates of dust TSP(Total Suspended Particle),PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by soil wind erosion from sandy loam,clay loam,loam,sandy loam,sandy soil and sandy soil grasslands in Bashang area of Hebei province were analyzed.The results show that the air temperature will increase and the annual precipitation and wind speed will obviously fluctuate with increasing and decreasing trends in Bashang area.Compared with the baseline scenario,the seasonal emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) are 15%,47%,28% and 46% higher in spring,17%,54%,45% and 38% higher in autumn,36%,42%,39% and 44% lower in winter in RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.In summer,the seasonal emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) are 1% lower in RCP2.6 and are 14%,3% and 7% higher in RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios than those in the baseline scenario,respectively.Under the background of future climate change,the annual emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by soil wind erosion will respectively increase 25%,54%,35% and 54% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios relative to those in the baseline scenario.Under the baseline and future climate change scenarios,the seasonal and annual emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by soil wind erosion and their differences are in the order from large to small by sandy loam,sandy soil,sandy loam,clay loam,clay and sand soil.The results suggest that the increase of the rate of dust by wind erosion in grassland soil in Bashang area of Hebei province will be caused by future climate change,but existing differences in different seasons and climate change scenarios.
Based on the data of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios p roduced by the global climate model of NorESMl-M and calculation method of dust emission by soil wind erosion recommended by former Ministry of Environmental Protection of People's Republic of China,the effects of future climate change on the seasonal and annual emission rates of dust TSP(Total Suspended Particle),PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by soil wind erosion from sandy loam,clay loam,loam,sandy loam,sandy soil and sandy soil grasslands in Bashang area of Hebei province were analyzed.The results show that the air temperature will increase and the annual precipitation and wind speed will obviously fluctuate with increasing and decreasing trends in Bashang area.Compared with the baseline scenario,the seasonal emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) are 15%,47%,28% and 46% higher in spring,17%,54%,45% and 38% higher in autumn,36%,42%,39% and 44% lower in winter in RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.In summer,the seasonal emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) are 1% lower in RCP2.6 and are 14%,3% and 7% higher in RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios than those in the baseline scenario,respectively.Under the background of future climate change,the annual emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by soil wind erosion will respectively increase 25%,54%,35% and 54% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios relative to those in the baseline scenario.Under the baseline and future climate change scenarios,the seasonal and annual emission rates of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by soil wind erosion and their differences are in the order from large to small by sandy loam,sandy soil,sandy loam,clay loam,clay and sand soil.The results suggest that the increase of the rate of dust by wind erosion in grassland soil in Bashang area of Hebei province will be caused by future climate change,but existing differences in different seasons and climate change scenarios.
引文
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[2]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chan.Climate change2013:the physical science basis[M]//Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,et al.Contribution of w orking group Ito the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014:4-23.
[3]Saxton K,Chandler D,Stetler L,et al.Wind erosion and fugitive dust fluxes on agricultural lands in the pacific northw est[J].Transactions of the Asae,2000,43(3):623-630.
[4]Feng G,Sharratt B.Validation of WEPS for soil and PM10loss from agricultural fields w ithin the columbia plateau of the United States[J].Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,2007,32(5):743-753.
[5]Hoffmann C,Funk R.Diurnal changes of PM10-emission from arable soils in NE-Germany[J].Aeolian Research,2015(17):117-127.
[6]Sharratt B S,Tatarko J,Abatzoglou J T,et al.Implications of climate change on w ind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia plateau[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2015,10:20-31.
[7]Ashkenazy Y,Yizhaq H,Tsoar H.Sand dune mobility under climate change in the Kalahari and Australian deserts[J].Climatic Change,2011,112(3/4):901-923.
[8]Lee J J,Phillips D L,Benson V W.Soil erosion and climate change:assessing potential impacts and adaptation practices[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,1999,54(3):529-536.
[9]王仁德,常春平,彭帅,等.基于粒度对比法的坝上农田风蚀与粉尘释放量估算[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(21):108-114.
[10]王仁德,邹学勇,赵婧妍.半湿润区农田土壤风蚀的风洞模拟研究[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(3):640-646.
[11]王仁德,邹学勇,赵婧妍.北京市农田风蚀的野外观测研究[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(2):400-406.
[12]张加琼,周学雷,张春来,等.张家口坝上地区农田土壤风蚀的137Cs示踪研究[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010,46(6):724-728.
[13]Gao Q,Ci L,Yu M.Modeling wind and water erosion in northern China under climate and land use changes[J].Journal of Soil&Water Conservation,2002,57(1):46-55.
[14]梅凡民,张小曳,曹军骥,等.定量评价中国北方粉尘源区地表覆盖类型对表土风蚀强度的影响[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2004,24(1):119-124.
[15]梅凡民,张小曳,鹿化煜,等.若干风蚀粉尘释放模型述评[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(6):791-797.
[16]邢茂,郭烈锦.土壤风蚀中粉尘释放规律研究[J].中国科学G辑:物理学力学天文学,2008,38(8):984-998.
[17]宣捷.中国北方地面起尘总量分布[J].环境科学学报,2000,20(4):426-430.
[18]陈莉,姬亚芹,刘爱霞,等.天津市近郊地表风蚀型开放源对中心城区影响估算研究[J].环境科学,2011,32(9):2769-2776.
[19]王社扣,王体健,石睿,等.南京市不同类型扬尘源排放清单估计[J].中国科学院大学学报,2014,31(3):351-359.
[20]徐媛倩,姜楠,燕启社,等.郑州市裸露地面风蚀扬尘排放清单研究[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(4):22-27.
[21]郭晓妮,马礼.坝上地区不同土地利用类型的地块土壤年风蚀量的对比---以河北省张家口市康保牧场为例[J].首都师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009,30(4):93-96.
[22]高尚玉,张春来,邹学勇,等.京津风沙源治理工程效益[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[23]Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the A-merican Meteorological Society,2012,93(4):485-498.
[24]Meinshausen M,Smith S J,Calvin K,et al.The RCPgreenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from1765 to 2300[J].Climatic Change,2011,109(1):213-241.
[25]吴建国.气候变化影响与风险-气候变化对生物多样性影响与风险研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.
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[27]Xuan J.Dust emission factors for environment of Northern China[J].Atmospheric Environment,1999,33(11):1767-1776.
[28]丁鼎治.河北土种志[M].石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1992.
[29]李乘绪.河北土壤[M].石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1990.
[30]宋桂英,江靖,狄慧,等.APE会议期间呼和浩特市大气污染防控与气象条件分析[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(1):63-69.
[31]杨元琴,王继志,张小曳,等.2017年1月沈阳和松辽平原地区重污染过程气象条件影响机理分析[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(6):116-124.