基于变权TOPSIS模型的长江经济带水资源承载力综合评价
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摘要
从水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合系统的角度,构建了长江经济带水资源承载力评价指标体系,应用变权TOPSIS模型确定各指标的权重及水资源承载力表征值,综合评价了长江经济带9省2市2015年、2016年和2017年的水资源承载力.结果表明,长江经济带水资源承载力在时间上呈波动上升趋势,但从整体区域来看,水资源承载力还有待提高.水资源承载力在空间上具有明显差异性,东部地区(上海、浙江、江苏)水资源承载力差异较大,西部地区(重庆、四川、贵州、云南)则较为均衡,中部地区除了安徽省水资源承载力明显偏低以外,其他三省(江西、湖北、湖南)表现较为均衡;水资源承载力整体表现出西部高于东部、东部高于中部的现象.长江经济带水资源承载力表征值在0.24～0.50之间,其中浙江省相对较高,最大表征值为0.49,而安徽省最低,最小表征值为0.25.影响长江经济带水资源承载力的5个最重要指标依次为地表水资源占比、生态环境用水量、水资源开发利用率、城市人口密度、生活用水总量的对水资源承载力.总体而言,长江经济带的水资源承载力受地区水资源禀赋状况和生态环境状况的影响较大.
By reviewing the concept of water resources carrying capacity, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is constructed from the perspective of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling system. Then the weighted TOPSIS model is used to calculate the weight of each index and the score of water resource carrying capacity. The water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces and two cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are comprehensively evaluated in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of has a fluctuating upward trend, and the spatial difference is obvious: the western region is significantly higher than the eastern and central regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2017. The score of water resources carrying capacity is in the range of 0.24-0.5, which is at the middle-lower level. The water resources carrying capacity of Zhejiang Province is relatively good and has been maintained at a high level, up to 0.493, while that of Anhui Province is relatively poor with the minimal value of 0.247. The evaluation results suggest that the water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is greatly affected by the regional water resources and ecological environment status.
By reviewing the concept of water resources carrying capacity, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is constructed from the perspective of water resources-economic society-ecological environment coupling system. Then the weighted TOPSIS model is used to calculate the weight of each index and the score of water resource carrying capacity. The water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces and two cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are comprehensively evaluated in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of has a fluctuating upward trend, and the spatial difference is obvious: the western region is significantly higher than the eastern and central regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2017. The score of water resources carrying capacity is in the range of 0.24-0.5, which is at the middle-lower level. The water resources carrying capacity of Zhejiang Province is relatively good and has been maintained at a high level, up to 0.493, while that of Anhui Province is relatively poor with the minimal value of 0.247. The evaluation results suggest that the water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is greatly affected by the regional water resources and ecological environment status.
引文
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[10] REN C F,GUO P,LI M,et al.An innovative method for water resources carrying capacity research—Metabolic theory of regional water resources[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2016,167:139-146.
[11] 王建华,姜大川,肖伟华,等.水资源承载力理论基础探析:定义内涵与科学问题[J].水利学报,2017,48(12):1399-1409.WANG J H,JIANG D H,XIAO W H,et al.Study on theoretical analysis of water resources carrying capacity:definition and scientific topics[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(12):1399-1409.(Ch).
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[13] 薛辰影,方红远,吉久伟.水资源承载力评价指标约简方法研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2019,17(3):23-30,78.XUE C Y,FANG H Y,JI J W.An index reduction method for water resources carrying capacity[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2019,17(3):23-30,78.(Ch).
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[17] 席丹墀,许新宜,韩冬梅,等.京津冀地区水资源承载力评价[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(5):575-581.XI D C,XU X Y,HAN D M,et al.Evaluating water resources-carrying capacity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science),2017,53(5):575-581.(Ch).
[18] WU L,SU X L,MA X Y,et al.Integrated modeling framework for evaluating and predicting the water resources carrying capacity in a continental river basin of Northwest China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,204:366-379.
[19] ZHOU X Y,ZHENG B H,SOON-THIAM K.Validation of the hypothesis on carrying capacity limits using the water environment carrying capacity[J].Science of the Total Environment,2019,665:774-784.
[20] YANG Z Y,SONG J X,CHENG D D,et al.Comprehensive evaluation and scenario simulation for the water resources carrying capacity in Xi'an city,China[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2019,230:221-233.
[21] MILANO M,RUELLAND D,DEZETTER A,et al.Modeling the current and future capacity of water resources to meet water demands in the Ebro basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,500(11):114-126.
[22] 左其亭.水资源承载力研究方法总结与再思考[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):1-6,54.ZUO Q T.Review of research methods of water resources carrying capacity[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(3):1-6,54.(Ch).
[23] 段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90.DUAN QCQ,LIU C M,CHEN X N,et al.Preliminary research on regional water resources carrying capacity conception and method[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(1):82-90.(Ch).
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