基于变权综合权重的黄金洞尾矿库风险评价
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摘要
尾矿库的安全运行受很多因素的影响,且影响程度不一,因此在尾矿库的安全评价过程中,确定各因素权重是关键的一步。为了避免固定不变的常权权重对评价结果的影响,构造了均衡函数,引入了变权权重。同时,也为了避免个人主观认识差异及客观数据之间的关系片面性对权重值的影响,提出了基于AHP-熵权法的变权综合权重风险评价方法。在评价过程中,结合实际从洪水漫顶、坝体溃坝、地基沉陷、安全管理、自然因素五方面,选取了坝体高度、库容量等18个措施层指标建立黄金洞尾矿库安全评价指标体系。通过专家打分,得到指标初始值,经过变权综合权重风险评价,得出此尾矿库安全度等级为较安全状态。此方法计算过程简单,为指标权重的确定提供了一条新的途径。
The safe operation of tailings ponds is affected by many factors,with different degrees of influence.Therefore,it is a crucial step to determine the weight of each factor in the process of safety assessment of tailing ponds.In order to avoid the impact of the constant weight on the evaluation results,an equalization function is constructed and variable weights are introduced.At the same time,in order to avoid the influence of personal subjective understanding differences and respective relations between objective data on the weight value,this paper proposes a comprehensive weight risk assessment method based on AHPentropy method.According to the fact,involving in five aspects of flooding,dam collapse,foundation settlement,safety management and natural factors,the safety assessment of the gold cave tailings reservoir was established in the process of evaluation which is based on 18 measures,such as dam height,reservoir capacity and so on.Through experts scoring,the initial value of the index is obtained.After the comprehensive weight risk assessment of variable weight,the conclusion is drawn that the safety grade of the tailings dam is safer and the calculation process is simple,which provides a new way for the determination of the index weight.
The safe operation of tailings ponds is affected by many factors,with different degrees of influence.Therefore,it is a crucial step to determine the weight of each factor in the process of safety assessment of tailing ponds.In order to avoid the impact of the constant weight on the evaluation results,an equalization function is constructed and variable weights are introduced.At the same time,in order to avoid the influence of personal subjective understanding differences and respective relations between objective data on the weight value,this paper proposes a comprehensive weight risk assessment method based on AHPentropy method.According to the fact,involving in five aspects of flooding,dam collapse,foundation settlement,safety management and natural factors,the safety assessment of the gold cave tailings reservoir was established in the process of evaluation which is based on 18 measures,such as dam height,reservoir capacity and so on.Through experts scoring,the initial value of the index is obtained.After the comprehensive weight risk assessment of variable weight,the conclusion is drawn that the safety grade of the tailings dam is safer and the calculation process is simple,which provides a new way for the determination of the index weight.
引文
[1]朱君星,李彩丽.不确定型层次分析法在尾矿库安全评价中的应用[J].金属矿山,2010(8):167-170.ZHU Junxing,LI Caili.Application of uncertain AHP to the safety assessment of tailing dam[J].Metal Mine,2010(8):167-170.
[2]杨泽,周科平,康海岳,等.SPA和模糊数学在尾矿库安全评价中的应用研究[J].环境工程,2016,34(1):108-111,140.YANG Ze,ZHOU Keping,KANG Haiyue,et al.Research on application of SPA and fuzzy mathe matics in safety evaluation of tailings reservoir[J].Environmental Engineering,2016,34(1):108-111,140.
[3]王英博,李仲学.基于AHP的矿山尾矿库安全评价[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2011,30(1):21-24.WANG Yingbo,LI Zhongxue.AHP-based mine tailing dam safety assessment[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science,2011,30(1):21-24.
[4]王英博,王琳,李仲学.基于HS-BP算法的尾矿库安全评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(11):2585-2590.WANG Yingbo,WANG Lin,LI Zhongxue.Safety evaluation of mine tailings facilities based on HS-BP algorithm[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2012,32(11):2585-2590.
[5]郑欣,许开立,周家红.基于集对分析的尾矿库安全评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2008,8(1):160-162.ZHENG Xin,XU Kaili,ZHOU Jiahong.Research on the safety evaluation of the tailingpond by way of the set pair analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2008,8(1):160-162.
[6]姜洲,黄艳华,刘方求,等.基于可拓学的尾矿库安全评价[J].环境工程,2016,34(7):165-170.JIANG Zhou,HUANG Yanhua,LIU Fangqiu,et al.Safety evaluation of tailings dams based on extension theory[J].Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,2016,34(7):165-170.
[7]王醒,马斌,纪琨.基于模糊综合评价的尾矿库安全评价研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2015,13(3):125-129,167.WANG Xing,MA Bin,JI Kun.Safety evaluation of tailing ponds based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2015,13(3):125-129,167.
[8]高振兴,赵江平,郭进平,等.基于突变理论的尾矿库安全评价[J].金属矿山,2009(12):121-125.GAO Zhenxing,ZHAO Jiangping,GUO Jinping,et al.Safety assessment of tailing pond based on catastrophe theory[J].Metal Mine,2009(12):121-125.
[9]陈生水.尾矿库安全评价存在的问题与对策[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(10):1869-1873.CHEN Shengshui.Problems and countermeasures of safety evaluation of tailing pond[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2016,38(10):1869-1873.
[10]李全明,王云海,廖国礼.尾矿库安全评价中的科学问题及评价方法探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2006,2(6):53-57.LI Quanming,WANG Yunhai,LIAO Guoli.Study on scientific issue and evaluation methed in safety assessment of tailing reservoir[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2006,2(6):53-57.
[11]张力霆,齐清兰,李强,等.尾矿库坝体溃坝演进规律的模型试验研究[J].水利学报,2016,47(2):229-235.ZHANG Liting,Qi Qinglan,LI Qiang,et al.Experimental model study on dam break and evolution law of tailingspond[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(2):229-235.
[12]李强,张力霆,齐清兰.基于流固耦合的尾矿库三维失稳形态及稳定性分析[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2017,25(3):558-567.LI Qiang,ZHANG Liting,QI Qinglan.Three dimensional instability characteristics and stability analysis of a tailing dam based on fluid-solid coupling theory[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2017,25(3):558-567.
[13]李德清,赵彩霞,李洪兴.状态变权向量的等效分析以及一类均衡函数的构造[J].模糊系统与数学,2004,18(2):83-88.LI Deqing,ZHAO Caixia,LI Hongxing.Equivalence among state variable weights vectorsand construction of a family of balance functions[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2004,18(2):83-88.
[14]李德清,赵彩霞,谷云东.等效均衡函数的性质及均衡函数的构造[J].模糊系统与数学,2005,19(1):87-92.LI Deqing,ZHAO Caixia,GU Yundong.Properties of equivalent balance function and construction approaches of balance function[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2005,19(1):87-92.
[15]李德清,崔红梅,李洪兴.基于层次变权的多因素决策[J].系统工程学报,2004,19(3):258-263.LI Deqing,CUI Hongmei,LI Hongxing.Multifactor decision making based on hierarchical variable weights[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2004,19(3):258-263.
[16]袁梅,张义平,王作强.基于层次分析法的尾矿库安全标准化评价系统[J].工矿自动化,2010,36(1):52-55.YUAN Mei,ZHANG Yiping,WANG Zuoqiang.Safety standardization evaluation system of tailing reservoirbased on analytical hierarchy process[J].Industry and Mine Automation,2010,36(1):52-55.
[17]张乃禄.安全技术评价[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2016:162-166.
[18]曾佳龙,黄锐,关燕鹤,等.熵权-未确知测度理论在尾矿库安全标准化中的应用研究[J].中国安全科学技术,2014,10(2):160-166.ZENG Jialong,HUANG Rui,GUAN Yanhe,et al.Research on application of entropy-unascertained measure theory in tailing pond safety standardization[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(2):160-166.
[19]李何林.开拓系统优化的AHP-熵权法和灰色关联分析[J].金属矿山,2017(3):50-53.LI Helin.Development system optimization based on AHPentropyweight method and grey correlation analysis[J].Metal Mine,2017(3):50-53.
[20]马砺,刘晗,白磊.基于AHP和熵权法的古建筑火灾风险评估[J].西安科技大学学报,2017,37(4):537-543.MA Li,LIU Han,BAI Lei.Fire risk assessment of the historic buildingsbased on AHP and entropy weight method[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2017,37(4):537-543.
[21]刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997(4):59-65,75.LIU Wenqi.Balanced function and its application for variable weight synthesizing[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,1997(4):59-65,75.
[22]胡建华,尚俊龙,雷涛.基于RS-TOPSIS法的地下工程岩体质量评价[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(11):4412-4419.HU Jianhua,SHANG Junlong,LEI Tao.Rock mass quality evaluation of underground engineering based on RS-TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(11):4412-4419.
(1)1亩=666.67m2。
[2]杨泽,周科平,康海岳,等.SPA和模糊数学在尾矿库安全评价中的应用研究[J].环境工程,2016,34(1):108-111,140.YANG Ze,ZHOU Keping,KANG Haiyue,et al.Research on application of SPA and fuzzy mathe matics in safety evaluation of tailings reservoir[J].Environmental Engineering,2016,34(1):108-111,140.
[3]王英博,李仲学.基于AHP的矿山尾矿库安全评价[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:自然科学版,2011,30(1):21-24.WANG Yingbo,LI Zhongxue.AHP-based mine tailing dam safety assessment[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Natural Science,2011,30(1):21-24.
[4]王英博,王琳,李仲学.基于HS-BP算法的尾矿库安全评价[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(11):2585-2590.WANG Yingbo,WANG Lin,LI Zhongxue.Safety evaluation of mine tailings facilities based on HS-BP algorithm[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2012,32(11):2585-2590.
[5]郑欣,许开立,周家红.基于集对分析的尾矿库安全评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2008,8(1):160-162.ZHENG Xin,XU Kaili,ZHOU Jiahong.Research on the safety evaluation of the tailingpond by way of the set pair analysis[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2008,8(1):160-162.
[6]姜洲,黄艳华,刘方求,等.基于可拓学的尾矿库安全评价[J].环境工程,2016,34(7):165-170.JIANG Zhou,HUANG Yanhua,LIU Fangqiu,et al.Safety evaluation of tailings dams based on extension theory[J].Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,2016,34(7):165-170.
[7]王醒,马斌,纪琨.基于模糊综合评价的尾矿库安全评价研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2015,13(3):125-129,167.WANG Xing,MA Bin,JI Kun.Safety evaluation of tailing ponds based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2015,13(3):125-129,167.
[8]高振兴,赵江平,郭进平,等.基于突变理论的尾矿库安全评价[J].金属矿山,2009(12):121-125.GAO Zhenxing,ZHAO Jiangping,GUO Jinping,et al.Safety assessment of tailing pond based on catastrophe theory[J].Metal Mine,2009(12):121-125.
[9]陈生水.尾矿库安全评价存在的问题与对策[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(10):1869-1873.CHEN Shengshui.Problems and countermeasures of safety evaluation of tailing pond[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2016,38(10):1869-1873.
[10]李全明,王云海,廖国礼.尾矿库安全评价中的科学问题及评价方法探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2006,2(6):53-57.LI Quanming,WANG Yunhai,LIAO Guoli.Study on scientific issue and evaluation methed in safety assessment of tailing reservoir[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2006,2(6):53-57.
[11]张力霆,齐清兰,李强,等.尾矿库坝体溃坝演进规律的模型试验研究[J].水利学报,2016,47(2):229-235.ZHANG Liting,Qi Qinglan,LI Qiang,et al.Experimental model study on dam break and evolution law of tailingspond[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(2):229-235.
[12]李强,张力霆,齐清兰.基于流固耦合的尾矿库三维失稳形态及稳定性分析[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2017,25(3):558-567.LI Qiang,ZHANG Liting,QI Qinglan.Three dimensional instability characteristics and stability analysis of a tailing dam based on fluid-solid coupling theory[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2017,25(3):558-567.
[13]李德清,赵彩霞,李洪兴.状态变权向量的等效分析以及一类均衡函数的构造[J].模糊系统与数学,2004,18(2):83-88.LI Deqing,ZHAO Caixia,LI Hongxing.Equivalence among state variable weights vectorsand construction of a family of balance functions[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2004,18(2):83-88.
[14]李德清,赵彩霞,谷云东.等效均衡函数的性质及均衡函数的构造[J].模糊系统与数学,2005,19(1):87-92.LI Deqing,ZHAO Caixia,GU Yundong.Properties of equivalent balance function and construction approaches of balance function[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2005,19(1):87-92.
[15]李德清,崔红梅,李洪兴.基于层次变权的多因素决策[J].系统工程学报,2004,19(3):258-263.LI Deqing,CUI Hongmei,LI Hongxing.Multifactor decision making based on hierarchical variable weights[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2004,19(3):258-263.
[16]袁梅,张义平,王作强.基于层次分析法的尾矿库安全标准化评价系统[J].工矿自动化,2010,36(1):52-55.YUAN Mei,ZHANG Yiping,WANG Zuoqiang.Safety standardization evaluation system of tailing reservoirbased on analytical hierarchy process[J].Industry and Mine Automation,2010,36(1):52-55.
[17]张乃禄.安全技术评价[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2016:162-166.
[18]曾佳龙,黄锐,关燕鹤,等.熵权-未确知测度理论在尾矿库安全标准化中的应用研究[J].中国安全科学技术,2014,10(2):160-166.ZENG Jialong,HUANG Rui,GUAN Yanhe,et al.Research on application of entropy-unascertained measure theory in tailing pond safety standardization[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(2):160-166.
[19]李何林.开拓系统优化的AHP-熵权法和灰色关联分析[J].金属矿山,2017(3):50-53.LI Helin.Development system optimization based on AHPentropyweight method and grey correlation analysis[J].Metal Mine,2017(3):50-53.
[20]马砺,刘晗,白磊.基于AHP和熵权法的古建筑火灾风险评估[J].西安科技大学学报,2017,37(4):537-543.MA Li,LIU Han,BAI Lei.Fire risk assessment of the historic buildingsbased on AHP and entropy weight method[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Science and Technology,2017,37(4):537-543.
[21]刘文奇.均衡函数及其在变权综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997(4):59-65,75.LIU Wenqi.Balanced function and its application for variable weight synthesizing[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,1997(4):59-65,75.
[22]胡建华,尚俊龙,雷涛.基于RS-TOPSIS法的地下工程岩体质量评价[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(11):4412-4419.HU Jianhua,SHANG Junlong,LEI Tao.Rock mass quality evaluation of underground engineering based on RS-TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(11):4412-4419.
(1)1亩=666.67m2。