基于SWAT模型的径流模拟与参数不确定性分析
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摘要
以淮河上游黄泥庄流域为例,重点探讨SWAT模型径流模拟效果及模型参数不确定性。采用SUFI-2方法,分析模型参数不确定性,结果表明:CN2、ALPHA-BF、SOL-K等3个参数取值对模型结果有显著的影响。对比不同参数组的模拟结果,发现23组不同参数组的模拟的NSE在0.975～0.98之间,"异参同效"现象十分突出。分析模型模拟效果的不确定性,结果表明:整个模拟时段内大部分的实测点落在了95PPU的范围内,SUFI-2方法在SWAT模型的参数不确定性分析的适用性较好。
Huangnizhuang basin was selected as a study area for runoff simulation and parameter uncertainties analysis based on SWAT model. SUFI-2 was applied to analysis of parameter uncertainty, and results showed that CN2, ALPHA-BF and SOL-K had comparatively significant effects on runoff simulation. Comparing the simulation results of different parameter groups, it was found that the NSE values of 23 different parameter groups ranged from 0.975 to 0.98, the phenomena of "Equifinality" is very prominent. Analyzing the uncertainty of the simulation results, the simulation results showed that most measured points fell in the 95 PPU zone during the simulation period,the SUFI-2 method was applicable in the parameter uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model.
Huangnizhuang basin was selected as a study area for runoff simulation and parameter uncertainties analysis based on SWAT model. SUFI-2 was applied to analysis of parameter uncertainty, and results showed that CN2, ALPHA-BF and SOL-K had comparatively significant effects on runoff simulation. Comparing the simulation results of different parameter groups, it was found that the NSE values of 23 different parameter groups ranged from 0.975 to 0.98, the phenomena of "Equifinality" is very prominent. Analyzing the uncertainty of the simulation results, the simulation results showed that most measured points fell in the 95 PPU zone during the simulation period,the SUFI-2 method was applicable in the parameter uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model.
引文
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[2] 杨丽华.城市化对城市降雨径流的影响及城市雨洪控制[J].中国市政工程,2002(3):35-37.
[3] 周翠宁,任树梅,杨培岭,等.城市化对降雨特征影响研究[J].水利水电技术,2007,38(10):62-65.
[4] 宋晓猛,朱奎.城市化对水文影响的研究[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(4):33-35.
[5] 万榆,黄岳文,彭晓春.广州城市内涝原因分析与对策研究[J].广东水利水电,2016(3):27-31.
[6] 吴春玲.基于分布式水文模型SWAT的流域径流模拟[J].广东水利水电,2013(4):33-36.
[7] WU H,CHEN B.Evaluating uncertainty estimates in distributed hydrological modeling for the Wenjing River watershed in China by GLUE,SUFI-2,and ParaSol methods[J].Ecological Engineering,2015(76):110-121.
[8] JAJARMIZADEH M.Using Soil and Water Assessment Tool For Flow Simulation and Assessment Of Sensitive Parameters Applying SUFI-2 Algorithm[J].Caspian Journal of Applied Sciences Research,2012,2(1):37-44.
[9] SONG Z,ZENG J,JIN Y,et al.Distributed Simulation of Monthly Runoff Using SWAT and SUFI-2 Algorithm in Shiyang River Basin[J].Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation,2016(5):172-177.
[10] 杨小强,石朋,包为民,等.SWAT模型在淮河息县流域的参数敏感性及不确定性研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(10):33-36.
[11] 崔兴齐,滕建标,姚晓磊,等.流量数据量对分布式水文模型参数率定结果的影响分析——以黑河流域上游为例[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014(5):570-575.
[12] 黄琼.降雨变异性对水文过程模拟影响研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[13] 杨祎.SWAT模型径流模拟的不确定性研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2014.
[14] 薛晨.基于SWAT模型的产流产沙模拟与模型参数不确定性分析[D].北京:华北电力大学,2011.
[15] 刘伟,安伟,马金锋.SWAT模型径流模拟的校正与不确定性分析[J].人民长江,2016,47(15):30-35.
[16] BEVEN K.A manifesto for the equifinality thesis[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,320(1-2):18-36.