摘要
The customer side operation is getting more complex and difficult in a smart grid environment because of the adoption of renewable resources, such as photovoltaic, wind turbine, geothermal and fuel cell and the use of energy storage systems. In performing energy management planning or scheduling, it is essential to forecast non-controllable resources accurately and robustly. Photovoltaic is one of the common renewable energy resources in customer side. The output of photovoltaic is directly related to insolation and temperature at the installed location for a specific time. Therefore, obtaining precise weather information is critical for accurate estimation. However, the weather forecast information that customers can access is usually not precise and even not quantitative. In this paper, an irradiation prediction model for photovoltaic power generations based on limited weather forecast information is proposed. It is assumed that customers can obtain only ordinary daily weather forecast that usually provides the qualitative prediction of 3 hours unit for the next 24 or 48 hours. Some existing insolation estimation methods are combined and power conditioning system characteristics are considered. The model is applied to a field test site, and verified with historic data.