摘要
Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation have great impacts on drought/flood risk and utilization of water resources. In this study, we presented the results of a comparative analysis of spatial-temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwest China. The analysis investigated the trends of annual precipitation and explored the changes of two indices: the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the concentration index (CI) which are designed for measuring seasonality and daily heterogeneity, respectively. The trends of annual precipitation and CI were tested by the Mann-Kendall method. The results show a significant seasonality of the rainfall distribution and very inhomogeneous temporal distribution of the daily rainfall in the study area. Positive trends in the CI were found at most stations, although most of them were not statistically significant. To detect the futures trends of precipitation in the study area, Hurst’s rescaled range (R/S) analysis was introduced and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated. The results suggested that some drought hazards will happen in the intersection of Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, and the west part of Sichuan, the north part of Chongqing and the middle part of Yunnan are under the risk of flood in the future.