Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects in China: A Provincial-Level Analysis

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• 作者：Yang Xie ; Hancheng Dai ; Huijuan Dong ; Tatsuya Hanaoka ; Toshihiko Masui
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 3, 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：50
• 期：9
• 页码：4836-4843
• 全文大小：519K
• 年卷期：0
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

This study evaluates the PM_2.5 pollution-related health impacts on the national and provincial economy of China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the latest nonlinear exposure–response functions. Results show that the health and economic impacts may be substantial in provinces with a high PM_2.5 concentration. In the WoPol scenario without PM_2.5 pollution control policy, we estimate that China experiences a 2.00% GDP loss and 25.2 billion USD in health expenditure from PM_2.5 pollution in 2030. In contrast, with control policy in the WPol scenario, a control investment of 101.8 billion USD (0.79% of GDP) and a gain of 1.17% of China’s GDP from improving PM_2.5 pollution are projected. At the provincial level, GDP loss in 2030 in the WoPol scenario is high in Tianjin (3.08%), Shanghai (2.98%), Henan (2.32%), Beijing (2.75%), and Hebei (2.60%) and the top five provinces with the highest additional health expenditure are Henan, Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu. Controlling PM_2.5 pollution could bring positive benefits in two-thirds of provinces. Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hebei experience most benefits from PM_2.5 pollution control as a result of a higher PM_2.5 pollution and dense population distribution. Conversely, the control investment is higher than GDP gain in some underdeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Guizhou, Shanxi, Gansu, and Yunnan.