Decadal climate variability and vulnerability of water resources in arid regions of Northwest China

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Long Wan ; Jun Xia ; Si Hong ; Hongmei Bu ; Like Ning&#8230
• 关键词：Vulnerability of water resources ; Decadal climate variability ; Arid regions of China
• 刊名：Environmental Earth Sciences
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：May 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：73
• 期：10
• 页码：6539-6552
• 全文大小：3,919 KB
• 参考文献：Adger N, Aggarwal P, Agrawala S, Alcamo J, Allali A, Anisimov O, Arnell N, Boko M et al (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: working group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the ipcc intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  Arnell NW (1999) Climate change and global water resources. Glob Environ Chang 9:S31鈥揝49View Article
  Babel MS, Wahid SM (2009) Freshwater under threat: South Asia鈥攙ulnerability assessment of freshwater resources to environmental change. United Nations Environment Programme and Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok
  Bao C, Fang CL (2007) Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water deficient regions: a case study of the Hexi Corridor, arid area of NW China. Ecol Econ 62(3):508鈥?17View Article
  Brown A, Matlock MD (2011) A review of water scarcity indices and methodologies. University of Arkansas, Arkansas, USA. The Sustainability Consortium, White Paper, 106
  Budyko MI, Miller DH (1974) Climate and life. Academic press, New York, p 508
  Cui G, Lee S, Lee W, Chung J (2010) Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change using GIS. ESRI international user conference, San Diego
  Deng XP, Shan L, Zhang H, Turner NC (2006) Improving agricultural water use efficiency in arid and semiarid areas of China. Agric Water Manag 80(1):23鈥?0View Article
  Dong XN, Li XM, Jia XP, Wang YM, Jiang XH (2006) Water resources investigation in Northwest China. Yellow River Conservancy Press (in Chinese)
  DonohueRJ RoderickML, McVicar TR (2011) Assessing the differences in sensitivities of runoff to changes in climatic conditions across a large basin. J Hydrol 406(3):234鈥?44View Article
  Falkenmark M (1989) The massive water scarcity now threatening Africa: why isn鈥檛 it being addressed? Ambio 112鈥?18
  FellmannT, Lankoski J (2012) FAO/OECD workshop. Red, vol 23, p 24
  FengQ ChengGD, Masao MK (2000) Trends of water resource development and utilization in arid north-west China. Environ Geol 39(8):831鈥?38View Article
  Fu BP (1981) On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface. Chin J Atmos Sci 1:002
  F眉ssel HM (2007) Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Glob Environ Chang 17(2):155鈥?67View Article
  Heltberg R, Bonch-Osmolovskiy M (2011) Mapping vulnerability to climate change. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series
  Liu CZ (2003) The vulnerability of water resources in Northwest China. J Glaciol Geocryol 25(6):309鈥?14
  Ma Z, Fu C (2006) Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004. Chin Sci Bull 51(23):2913鈥?925View Article
  Ma Z, Kang S, Zhang L, Tong L, Su X (2008) Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China. J Hydrol 352(3):239鈥?49View Article
  Mansur S, Rahman Y (2007) Analysis on the spatial and temporal changes of population and its influencing factors in Xinjiang in the Last 50 years. Hum Geogr 6:114鈥?20 (in Chinese)
  McCaffrey SC (1992) A human right to water: domestic and international implications. Georget Int Environ Law Rev 5:1
  McNabb DE (2005) Public utilities: management challenges for the 21st century. Edward Elgar Publishing
  Smit B, Pilifosova O (2003) Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. Sustain Dev 8(9):9
  Smit B, Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 16(3):282鈥?92View Article
  Sullivan CA, Huntingford C (2009) Water resources, climate change and human vulnerability. Paper presented at the 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns/Australia
  V枚r枚smarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289(5477):284View Article
  Wang G, Cheng G (2000) The characteristics of water resources and the changes of the hydrological process and environment in the arid zone of Northwest China. Environ Geol 39(7):783鈥?90View Article
  Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (1998) The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  Xia J, Chen YD (2001) Water problems and opportunities in the hydrological sciences in China. Hydrol Sci J 46(6):907鈥?21View Article
  Xiao SJ, Li QJ, Liu ZS, Wang HJ (2011) Water demand prediction of social and economic development of the river regions in the Northwest China. Yellow River 33(11):77鈥?0 (in Chinese)
  Zhang Y, Zhang S, Xia J, Hua D (2013) Temporal and spatial variation of the main water balance components in the three rivers source region, China from 1960 to 2000. Environ Earth Sci 68(4):973鈥?83View Article
  
• 作者单位：Long Wan (1) (3)
  Jun Xia (1) (2)
  Si Hong (1) (3)
  Hongmei Bu (1)
  Like Ning (1) (3)
  Junxu Chen (1) (3)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
  2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430000, Hubei, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：None Assigned
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1866-6299

文摘

Decadal climate change has evidently posed serious threats and challenges to water resource management across arid regions in China. Thus, vulnerability assessment of water resources has been considered vital to adapt to or cope with the adverse effects of climate change. This paper investigated spatial patterns of decadal climate change and water resources variability in the arid regions of Northwest China based on a GIS analysis. The Budyko hypothesis was used to investigate the climate sensitivity of basin streamflow. A framework was proposed to assess the vulnerability of water resources as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. Results indicated that a significant increase in precipitation and water resources (both surface water resources and groundwater recharge) occurred primarily in Xinjiang Province after the 1980s. Water utilization ratio in arid regions was very high, and groundwater abstraction substantially increased as it exceeded the exploitable volume in the Hexi Corridor, the Tuha Basin, and the north of the Tianshan Mountain. Exposure of water resources to drought in arid regions decreased from the 1960s to the 2000s. The sensitivity of water resource response to precipitation changes varied between regions. Water resources were more sensitive to precipitation variability in the river basins in the Hexi Corridor and inner Mongolia. In most arid regions in China, water resources were evaluated with low adaptability and high or severe vulnerability in the 2000s. In the future, the precipitation is projected to increase significantly under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Particularly, water vulnerability will be significantly reduced as the precipitation increases in most river basins under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water resources in the rivers in the Qaidam Basin, the Qinhai Lake Basin, the inner Mongolia, and the north of Kunlun Mountain will have low or medium vulnerability in the 2030s and 2050s. However, in the Tuha Basin and Hexi Corridor, vulnerability will remain severe in the 2050s despite the significant increase in precipitation and implementation of water-saving measures. Hence, measures that will facilitate sustainable water resource management must be identified and implemented.