Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades

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• 作者：Huizi Bai ; Fulu Tao ; Dengpan Xiao ; Fengshan Liu ; He Zhang
• 刊名：Climatic Change
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：135
• 期：3-4
• 页码：539-553
• 全文大小：966 KB
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• 作者单位：Huizi Bai (1) (2)
  Fulu Tao (1) (5)
  Dengpan Xiao (3)
  Fengshan Liu (4)
  He Zhang (1) (2)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
  5. Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), FI-01301, Vantaa, Finland
  3. Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050011, China
  4. Juncao Research Institute, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350002, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Meteorology and Climatology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1480

文摘

Using the detailed field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative agro-meteorological experiment stations in China, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model, we evaluated the impact of sowing/transplanting date on phenology and yield of rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS). We also disentangled the contributions of climate change, modern cultivars, sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management, as well as changes in each climate variables, to yield change in RWRS, in the past three decades. We found that change in sowing/transplanting date did not significantly affect rice and wheat yield in RWRS, although alleviated the negative impact of climate change to some extent. From 1981 to 2009, climate change jointly caused rice and wheat yield change by −17.4 to 1.5 %, of which increase in temperature reduced yield by 0.0–5.8 % and decrease in solar radiation reduced it by 1.5–8.7 %. Cultivars renewal, modern sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management contributed to yield change by 14.4–27.2, −4.7– −0.1 and 2.3–22.2 %, respectively. Our findings highlight that modern cultivars and agronomic management compensated the negative impacts of climate change and played key roles in yield increase in the past three decades.