Paths to victory in presidential elections: the setup power of noncompetitive states

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• 作者：Steven J. Brams ; D. Marc Kilgour
• 关键词：Presidential elections ; Electoral College ; Measure of voting power ; Setup power of noncompetitive states
• 刊名：Public Choice
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：170
• 期：1-2
• 页码：99-113
• 全文大小：392 KB
• 刊物类别：Business and Economics
• 刊物主题：Economics
  Public Finance and Economics
  Political Science
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-7101
• 卷排序：170

文摘

In US presidential elections, voters in noncompetitive states seem not to count—and have zero power, according to standard measures of voting power—because they cannot influence the outcome in their states. But the electoral votes of these states are essential to a candidate’s victory, so they do count, but in a different way. We propose a simple model that enables us to measure the setup power of voters in noncompetitive states by modeling how these states structure the contest in the competitive states, as illustrated by the 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000 presidential elections. We define three measures of setup power—winningness, vulnerability, and fragility—and show how they pinpoint the advantages of the candidate who leads in electoral votes of noncompetitive states. In fact, this candidate won in all four elections.