Spatiotemporal analysis and risk assessment of thyroid cancer in Hangzhou, China

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• 作者：Xufeng Fei ; Jiaping Wu ; Qingmin Liu…
• 关键词：Thyroid cancer ; Spatiotemporal pattern ; Iodine sufficient ; Spatial analysis ; Risk factors
• 刊名：Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：8
• 页码：2155-2168
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Earth Sciences, general; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computa
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-3259
• 卷排序：30

文摘

Thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in China has increased rapidly in recent years. Hangzhou is one of the areas with the highest TC incidence in China. However, the composite space–time variation and risk factors of TC are rarely investigated. We acquired 7147 TC cases from 2008 to 2012 in Hangzhou. Descriptive statistics were employed to compare the incidence disparities in different sub-populations. Geographical information systems were used to create spatial distribution maps. Hotspot analysis was applied to detect high/low incidence clusters, and the GeogDetector model was implemented to investigate the relationship between TC incidence and environmental factors. TC incidence in Hangzhou increased dramatically from 2008 to 2012: a noticeable 244.9 % increase, from 10.04 to 34.63 per 100,000 individuals, with a female to male ratio of 3.0, an urban to rural ratio of 3.2 and iodine sufficient to iodine deficient ratio of 3.5. Significantly high TC cluster was detected in the northeast area of Hangzhou. Elevation was found to be the most powerful determinant of TC distribution, followed by soil parent materials and slope. TC incidence decreased as elevation and slope increased. Concerning soil parent materials, deposited materials were generally linked to higher TC incidence than were eluvium ones. The spatial/temporal pattern of TC incidence is affected by geomorphology and soil property variations. Excessive iodine exposure may be a TC risk factor. Health research and management should pay sufficient attention to the improved understanding and prediction of the composite space–time distribution of the quickly increasing TC incidence described in this study.