Major heat waves of 2003 and 2006 and health outcomes in Prague

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Iva Hůnová ; Marek Brabec ; Marek Malý ; Veronika Knobová…
• 关键词：Generalized additive model ; Heat wave ; Hospital admissions ; Mortality ; Negative binomial regression ; Ozone ; PM10 ; Temperature
• 刊名：Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：10
• 期：2
• 页码：183-194
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environmental Health; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Health Promotion and Disease Prevention;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1873-9326
• 卷排序：10

文摘

We have investigated the association between heat waves and mortality and hospital admissions for Prague inhabitants for the summer heat waves of August 2003 and July 2006. The effect of heat waves was investigated using negative binomial regression in a generalized additive model. We used a linear model on a logarithmic scale, having 1-day lagged temperature differences from the long-term average, 1-day lagged ambient O₃ and PM₁₀ concentration, relative humidity, simple “heat wave” indicator, and smooth seasonal effect as explanatory variables. We found a small increase in daily mortality for the examined period. This increase can be attributed to PM₁₀ concentrations in most cases, and in fewer instances, to air temperature and O₃ concentrations. The “heat wave” indicator did not significantly increase the relative risk; the same held for the relative humidity. For the general unstratified population, the highest increase in relative risk of 1.072 (95% CI 1.001–1.147) was observed for cardiovascular mortality and was associated with an increase in temperature of 10 °C, followed by an increase in relative risk of 1.056 (95% CI 1.025–1.087) for respiratory mortality associated with an increase in O₃ concentrations by 10 μg.m−3. A higher risk in most cases was found for women. A significant increase of relative risk of 1.013 (95 % CI 1.002–1.024) due to PM₁₀ was found for hospital admissions for cardiovascular causes. This issue should be studied further in view of the anticipated increase in meteorological extremes, including heat waves, in the future, to prepare prevention plans for eliminating their negative effects as far as possible.