The Burglary Boost: A Note on Detecting Contagion Using the Knox Test

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• 作者：Joseph T. Ornstein ; Ross A. Hammond
• 关键词：Burglary ; Contagion ; Knox test ; Agent ; based modeling
• 刊名：Journal of Quantitative Criminology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：33
• 期：1
• 页码：65-75
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Humanities, Social Sciences and Law
• 刊物主题：Criminology and Criminal Justice, general; Sociology, general; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Statistics, general;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1573-7799
• 卷排序：33

文摘

ObjectivesA large body of literature in quantitative criminology finds that the spatio-temporal clustering of burglary is greater than one would expect from chance alone. This suggests that such crimes may exhibit a “boost” effect, wherein each burglary increases the risk to nearby locations for a short period. In this study, we demonstrate that standard tests for spatio-temporal dependence have difficulty distinguishing between clustering caused by contagion and that caused by changing relative risks. Therefore, any estimates of the boost effect drawn from these tests alone will be upwardly biased.