Analysis of the Different Duration Stages of Accidents with Hazard-Based Model

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• 作者：Ruimin Li ; Min Guo ; Huapu Lu
• 关键词：Traffic accident management ; Accident duration ; Accelerated failure time model ; Hazard function distribution
• 刊名：International Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Research
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：15
• 期：1
• 页码：7-16
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Engineering
• 刊物主题：Electrical Engineering; Automotive Engineering; Robotics and Automation; Computer Imaging, Vision, Pattern Recognition and Graphics; Civil Engineering; User Interfaces and Human Computer Interaction;
• 出版者：Springer US
• ISSN：1868-8659
• 卷排序：15

文摘

This study investigates and identifies significant contributing variables that affect the duration of three traffic accident stages, namely, preparation, travel, and clearance as well as the total duration of the accident. Accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based models were developed with different underlying probability distributions for the hazard function, including models with gamma heterogeneity and models with time-varying covariates. The results indicate that the gamma distribution model with a time variable is the best model for the four different duration stages, and different parameters and variables were appropriate for modeling the different duration stages of traffic accidents. The findings of this study provide an important demonstration of method and an empirical basis for accident management programs.