Assessing hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty

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• 作者：Cao Wang ; Hao Zhang ; Kairui Feng ; Quanwang Li
• 关键词：Hurricane ; Damage costs ; Hurricane vulnerability ; Model uncertainty ; Probabilistic risk analysis ; Non ; stationarity ; Climate change
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：85
• 期：3
• 页码：1621-1635
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Natural Hazards; Hydrogeology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Civil Engineering; Environmental Management;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840
• 卷排序：85

文摘

Probability-based assessment of hurricane damage costs for coastal communities is vital for policy-makers and insurers. The uncertainties associated with hurricane damage costs include both the inherent uncertainty due to the random nature of hurricane process and the model uncertainty of the mathematical representation of hurricane damage (vulnerability model). The hurricane vulnerability model has traditionally been modeled as a deterministic function of hurricane wind speed in the literature, without considering the effect of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage assessment. This paper develops two methods to assess the hurricane damage costs in the presence of vulnerability model uncertainty. To account for the non-stationarity in hurricane actions due to the potential impact of climate change, the hurricane occurrence process is modeled as a non-stationary Poisson process and the hurricane intensity is assumed to vary in time with time-variant statistical parameters of hurricane wind speed. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, is conducted to illustrate the proposed methods and to investigate the impact of vulnerability model uncertainty on hurricane damage costs.