Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

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• 作者：Michelle C. Hamilton (1)
  Shital A. Thekdi (6)
  Elisabeth M. Jenicek (2)
  Russell S. Harmon (3)
  Michael E. Goodsite (4)
  Michael P. Case (2)
  Christopher W. Karvetski (5)
  James H. Lambert (1)
  
• 关键词：Scenario analysis ; Risk analysis ; Decision analysis ; Sustainability ; Adaptive management ; Water resource management ; Energy infrastructure ; Infrastructure corridors ; Climate change
• 刊名：The Environmentalist
• 出版年：2013
• 出版时间：March 2013
• 年：2013
• 卷：33
• 期：1
• 页码：89-103
• 全文大小：600 KB
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• 作者单位：Michelle C. Hamilton (1)
  Shital A. Thekdi (6)
  Elisabeth M. Jenicek (2)
  Russell S. Harmon (3)
  Michael E. Goodsite (4)
  Michael P. Case (2)
  Christopher W. Karvetski (5)
  James H. Lambert (1)
  
  1. Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
  6. Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA, USA
  2. Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center, Champaign, IL, USA
  3. International Research Office, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Ruislip, UK
  4. Aarhus University Herning and Nordic Center of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research, Aarhus, Denmark
  5. Department of Applied Information Technology, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
  
• ISSN：1573-2991

文摘

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.