基于结构方程的流域水环境承载力评价——以湟水流域小峡桥断面上游为例
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摘要
针对流域水环境承载力评价中指标体系构建及权重确定缺乏客观依据的问题,以湟水流域小峡桥断面上游为例,通过兼顾压力与水环境承载力的控制断面水质影响路径分析,建立了面向水环境承载力评价的结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM);在此基础上,构建了湟水流域的水环境承载力综合评价体系,并获得各指标权重,进而利用向量模法对流域水环境承载状态进行了综合评价.结果表明:SEM模型能够定量反映土地利用/景观格局及污染物排放因素与水环境承载状态的相关关系;SEM模型的路径分析可为水环境承载力综合评价指标体系的建立提供科学依据;由SEM模型得到的路径影响相关系数,可为权重的确定提供新的科学方法;研究区16个控制子单元呈上、中、下游水环境承载状态逐渐变差的梯度特征;最后,针对湟水流域不同区域的社会、经济、环境和资源差异,从流域水环境承载力双向调控的角度,提出改善水环境承载状态的相关建议,进而为流域水系统持续协调发展提供精细化管理支撑.
In this study, we developed a structural equation model(SEM) to comprehensively examine the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC) in the upstream areas of Xiaoxia Bridge Section, Huangshui River Basin. The SEM model accounted for the weight of WECC and environmental pressures within its index system. Moreover, we obtained the weight of each indicator by establishing a comprehensive evaluation system of WECC; and evaluated the carrying status of the water environment using the vector modulus method. We found that the SEM model sufficiently represented the correlation between various landscape patterns(pollutant discharges) and the water environmental carrying states. Based on path analysis, we confirmed that the SEM model provides a scientific basis for establishing an index system for comprehensive evaluation of the WECC, while the corresponding correlation coefficient is useful for determining the relative contribution of each indicator. We also found that the carrying status of the water environment in 16 control subunits of the study section deteriorated gradually from the upstream to the downstream. We finally discussed some plausible measures to improve the carrying status of the water environment from bidirectional regulation perspective(in accordance to the regional society, economy, resource and environment) in order to achieve sustainable development and management of the water environment in the river basin.
In this study, we developed a structural equation model(SEM) to comprehensively examine the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC) in the upstream areas of Xiaoxia Bridge Section, Huangshui River Basin. The SEM model accounted for the weight of WECC and environmental pressures within its index system. Moreover, we obtained the weight of each indicator by establishing a comprehensive evaluation system of WECC; and evaluated the carrying status of the water environment using the vector modulus method. We found that the SEM model sufficiently represented the correlation between various landscape patterns(pollutant discharges) and the water environmental carrying states. Based on path analysis, we confirmed that the SEM model provides a scientific basis for establishing an index system for comprehensive evaluation of the WECC, while the corresponding correlation coefficient is useful for determining the relative contribution of each indicator. We also found that the carrying status of the water environment in 16 control subunits of the study section deteriorated gradually from the upstream to the downstream. We finally discussed some plausible measures to improve the carrying status of the water environment from bidirectional regulation perspective(in accordance to the regional society, economy, resource and environment) in order to achieve sustainable development and management of the water environment in the river basin.
引文
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陈龙,曾维华.2016.渭河干流关中段非突发性水质超标风险研究[J].人民黄河,38(2):80-83
Ding L,Chen K L,Cheng S G,et al.2015.Water ecological carrying capacity of urban lakes in the context of rapid urbanization:A case study of East Lake in Wuhan[J].Physics & Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/b/c,s 89-90:104-113
郭儒,李宇斌,富国.2008.河流中污染物衰减系数影响因素分析[J].气象与环境学报,24(1):56-59
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李美荣,郑钦玉,刘娟,等.2012.基于AHP法的重庆市水环境承载力研究[J].水利科技与经济,18(5):1-6
李磊,贾磊,赵晓雪,等.2014.层次分析—熵值定权法在城市水环境承载力评价中的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,23(4):456-460
李成,吴谦,胡满.2016.风险综合评价中指标权重确定方法对比研究[J].石油工业技术监督,32(1):50-53
刘润润,薛景丽,郑新奇.2012.结构方程模型在城市研究中的应用述评[J].资源开发与市场,28(3):222-226
刘秋艳,吴新年.2017.多要素评价中指标权重的确定方法评述[J].知识管理论坛,(6):500-510
Malaeb Z A,Summers J K,Pugesek B H.2000.Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables [J].Environmental and Ecological Statistics,7(1):93-111
Meng L,Chen Y,Weihong L I,et al.2009.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Geographical Science,19(1):89-95
Mao I F,Chen M R,Wang L,et al.2012.Method development for determining the malodor source and pollution in industrial park[J].Science of the Total Environment,437(20):270-275
Monte-Luna P D,Brook B W,Zetina-Rejón M J,et al.2004.The carrying capacity of ecosystems[J].Global Ecology & Biogeography,13(6):485-495
钱晓雍,沈根祥,郭春霞,等.2011.基于水环境功能区划的农业面源污染源解析及其空间异质性[J].农业工程学报,27(2):103-108
聂发辉.2008.上海城市景观绿地削减地表径流及其污染负荷的可行性研究[D].上海:同济大学
邵强,李友俊,田庆旺.2004.综合评价指标体系构建方法[J].东北石油大学学报,28(3):74-76
孙贤斌,刘红玉.2010.土地利用变化对湿地景观连通性的影响及连通性优化效应——以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例[J].自然资源学报,25(6):892-903
Venkatesan A K,Ahmad S,Johnson W,et al.2011.Systems dynamic model to forecast salinity load to the Colorado River due to urbanization within the Las Vegas Valley[J].Science of the Total Environment,409(13):2616-2625
Wang S,Yang F L,Xu L,et al.2013.Multi-scale analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of the Liaohe Basin based on ecological footprints[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,53(16):158-166
吴际通,顾卿先,喻理飞,等.2014.贵州草海湿地景观格局变化分析[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),36(2):28-35
吴明隆.2010.结构方程模型:AMS的操作与应用[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社
武文杰,刘志林,张文忠.2010.基于结构方程模型的北京居住用地价格影响因素评价[J].地理学报,65(6):676-684
郗敏,刘红玉,吕宪国.2006.流域湿地水质净化功能研究进展[J].水科学进展,17(4):566-573
徐彩彩,张远,张殷波,等.2014.辽河流域河段蜿蜒度特征分析[J].生态科学,33(3):495-501
颜小品,李玉照,刘永,等.2013.基于结构方程的农村水环境管理评价研究基于结构方程模型的滇池叶绿素a与关键影响因子关系识别[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),49(6):1031-1039
曾维华,薛英岚,贾紫牧.2017.水环境承载力评价技术方法体系建设与实证研究[J].环境保护,(24):17-24
Zhu Y,Drake S,Lü H,et al.2010.Analysis of temporal and spatial differences in eco-environmental carrying capacity related to water in the Haihe River Basins,China[J].Water Resources Management,24(6):1089-1105
Zhang Z,Lu W X,Zhao Y,et al.2014.Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process[J].Ecological Modelling,275:9-21
周婷,彭少麟,任文韬.2009.东江河岸缓冲带景观格局变化对水体恢复的影响[J].生态学报,29(1):231-239
陈龙,曾维华.2016.渭河干流关中段非突发性水质超标风险研究[J].人民黄河,38(2):80-83
Ding L,Chen K L,Cheng S G,et al.2015.Water ecological carrying capacity of urban lakes in the context of rapid urbanization:A case study of East Lake in Wuhan[J].Physics & Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/b/c,s 89-90:104-113
郭儒,李宇斌,富国.2008.河流中污染物衰减系数影响因素分析[J].气象与环境学报,24(1):56-59
Jorekog K G,Sorbom D.1993.New features in PRELIS 2[R].Chicago:Scientific Software
Liu H.2013.The impact of human behavior on ecological threshold:Positive or negative?—Grey relational analysis of ecological footprint,energy consumption and environmental protection[J].Energy Policy,56(5):711-719
李美荣,郑钦玉,刘娟,等.2012.基于AHP法的重庆市水环境承载力研究[J].水利科技与经济,18(5):1-6
李磊,贾磊,赵晓雪,等.2014.层次分析—熵值定权法在城市水环境承载力评价中的应用[J].长江流域资源与环境,23(4):456-460
李成,吴谦,胡满.2016.风险综合评价中指标权重确定方法对比研究[J].石油工业技术监督,32(1):50-53
刘润润,薛景丽,郑新奇.2012.结构方程模型在城市研究中的应用述评[J].资源开发与市场,28(3):222-226
刘秋艳,吴新年.2017.多要素评价中指标权重的确定方法评述[J].知识管理论坛,(6):500-510
Malaeb Z A,Summers J K,Pugesek B H.2000.Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables [J].Environmental and Ecological Statistics,7(1):93-111
Meng L,Chen Y,Weihong L I,et al.2009.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Geographical Science,19(1):89-95
Mao I F,Chen M R,Wang L,et al.2012.Method development for determining the malodor source and pollution in industrial park[J].Science of the Total Environment,437(20):270-275
Monte-Luna P D,Brook B W,Zetina-Rejón M J,et al.2004.The carrying capacity of ecosystems[J].Global Ecology & Biogeography,13(6):485-495
钱晓雍,沈根祥,郭春霞,等.2011.基于水环境功能区划的农业面源污染源解析及其空间异质性[J].农业工程学报,27(2):103-108
聂发辉.2008.上海城市景观绿地削减地表径流及其污染负荷的可行性研究[D].上海:同济大学
邵强,李友俊,田庆旺.2004.综合评价指标体系构建方法[J].东北石油大学学报,28(3):74-76
孙贤斌,刘红玉.2010.土地利用变化对湿地景观连通性的影响及连通性优化效应——以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例[J].自然资源学报,25(6):892-903
Venkatesan A K,Ahmad S,Johnson W,et al.2011.Systems dynamic model to forecast salinity load to the Colorado River due to urbanization within the Las Vegas Valley[J].Science of the Total Environment,409(13):2616-2625
Wang S,Yang F L,Xu L,et al.2013.Multi-scale analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of the Liaohe Basin based on ecological footprints[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,53(16):158-166
吴际通,顾卿先,喻理飞,等.2014.贵州草海湿地景观格局变化分析[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),36(2):28-35
吴明隆.2010.结构方程模型:AMS的操作与应用[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社
武文杰,刘志林,张文忠.2010.基于结构方程模型的北京居住用地价格影响因素评价[J].地理学报,65(6):676-684
郗敏,刘红玉,吕宪国.2006.流域湿地水质净化功能研究进展[J].水科学进展,17(4):566-573
徐彩彩,张远,张殷波,等.2014.辽河流域河段蜿蜒度特征分析[J].生态科学,33(3):495-501
颜小品,李玉照,刘永,等.2013.基于结构方程的农村水环境管理评价研究基于结构方程模型的滇池叶绿素a与关键影响因子关系识别[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),49(6):1031-1039
曾维华,薛英岚,贾紫牧.2017.水环境承载力评价技术方法体系建设与实证研究[J].环境保护,(24):17-24
Zhu Y,Drake S,Lü H,et al.2010.Analysis of temporal and spatial differences in eco-environmental carrying capacity related to water in the Haihe River Basins,China[J].Water Resources Management,24(6):1089-1105
Zhang Z,Lu W X,Zhao Y,et al.2014.Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process[J].Ecological Modelling,275:9-21
周婷,彭少麟,任文韬.2009.东江河岸缓冲带景观格局变化对水体恢复的影响[J].生态学报,29(1):231-239