计量水价、定额管理还是按亩收费?——海河流域农业用水政策探究
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摘要
本文以海河流域为例,通过建立局部均衡模型,分析计量水价、定额管理和按亩收费3种农业用水政策在不同节水目标下对农业生产的影响。结果表明,不同政策会带来作物播种面积和灌溉强度的变化,进而影响作物产量和农业部门社会福利。具体来说:(1)随着用水成本的提高,灌溉作物总播种面积有较大幅度减少,雨养作物总播种面积有较大幅度增加,但作物总播种面积波动幅度较小。(2)不同节水目标下,按亩收费政策使各作物灌溉强度下降幅度最小。(3)相同节水目标下,计量水价政策更符合中国保障粮食安全的目标,但会进一步加剧中国大豆产业的对外依存度。(4)定额管理政策能够以较低的农业部门总福利损失节约更多的水资源。(5)水资源的节约虽使农业部门整体社会福利下降,但几乎不会给农民带来农业生产利润损失。
Taking Haihe River Basin as an example, this article analyzes the influences of three major water management policies in the agricultural sector, namely, water price, quota and tax based on irrigated area on agricultural production by a partial equilibrium model. The results show that the total plantation areas of irrigated crops decreased significantly with the increase in water cost, and the total plantation areas of rain-fed crops increased, while the change of the total plantation areas of crops were minor. Second,under diflferent water-saving targets, the irrigation intensity of crops under the tax based on irrigated area policy decreased the least.Third, the price policy seems the least harmful to China's food self-sufficiency, but it will further enhance the external dependence of China's soybean industry. Fourth, the quota policy can save more water resources with a relatively low welfare loss in the agricultural sector. Finally,although water conservation has reduced the social welfare of the agricultural sector,it does not seem to affect producers' surplus in the agricultural sector.
Taking Haihe River Basin as an example, this article analyzes the influences of three major water management policies in the agricultural sector, namely, water price, quota and tax based on irrigated area on agricultural production by a partial equilibrium model. The results show that the total plantation areas of irrigated crops decreased significantly with the increase in water cost, and the total plantation areas of rain-fed crops increased, while the change of the total plantation areas of crops were minor. Second,under diflferent water-saving targets, the irrigation intensity of crops under the tax based on irrigated area policy decreased the least.Third, the price policy seems the least harmful to China's food self-sufficiency, but it will further enhance the external dependence of China's soybean industry. Fourth, the quota policy can save more water resources with a relatively low welfare loss in the agricultural sector. Finally,although water conservation has reduced the social welfare of the agricultural sector,it does not seem to affect producers' surplus in the agricultural sector.
引文
1.畅明琦、刘俊萍,2005:《农业供水价格与需求关系分析》,《水利发展研究》第5期。
2.郭善民,2004:《灌溉管理制度改革问题研究——以皂河灌区为例》,南京农业大学博士学位论文。
3.李浩,2008:《气候变化对中国水资源的影响及适应性措施初步研究——水政策模型的构建及情景模拟》,中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文。
4.廖永松,2009:《灌溉水价改革对灌溉用水、粮食生产和农民收入的影响分析》,《中国农村经济》第1期。
5.刘莹,2008:《黄河上游水价政策对灌溉用水及农户种植收入的影响》,中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文。
6.刘莹、黄季焜、王金霞,2015:《水价政策对灌溉用水及种植收入的影响》,《经济学(季刊)》第4期。
7.毛春梅,2005:《农业水价改革与节水效果的关系分析》,《中国农村水利水电》第4期。
8.牛坤玉、吴健,2010:《农业灌溉水价对农户用水量影响的经济分析》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第9期。
9.石玉林、卢良恕,2001:《中国农业需水与节水高效农业建设》,北京:中国水利水电出版社。
10.孙天合,2017:《农业水价政策及灌溉用水的经济价值评估:中国北方灌区的实证研究》,中国科学院大学博士学位论文。
11.王克强、李国军、刘红梅,2011:《中国农业水资源政策一般均衡模拟分析》,《管理世界》第9期。
12.严婷婷,2015:《气候变化条件下农业用水优化配置及其对农作物生产的影响:基于北方五大流域的研究》,中国科学院大学博士学位论文。
13.张宗威,2004:《提高农业产业整体利润水平的深层思考》,《科技导报》第2期。
14.赵连阁、王学渊,2006:《水价变化对灌区种植结构的影响——对辽宁丹东东港铁甲灌区的模拟分析》,《农业经济问题》第3期。
15.Bazzani,G.M.,S.D.Pasquale,V.Gallerani,and D.Viaggi,2004,“Irrigated Agriculture in Italy and Water Regulation under the European Union Water Framework Directive”,Water Resources Research,40(7):380-383.
16.Chang,B.,and Y.Liu,2010,“Study on Water Saving Effect of the System of‘Increase Price and Allocate Subsidy’”,China Water Resources,97(2):41-44.
17.Dinar,A.,and J.Mody,2004,“Irrigation Water Management Policies:Allocation and Pricing Principles and Implementation Experience”,Natural Resources Forum,28(2):112-122.
18.Feike,T.,2015,“Multiple Policy Instruments for Sustainable Water Management in Crop Production——A Modeling Study for the Chinese Aksu-Tarim Region”,Ecological Economics,135(1):42-54.
19.Gómez-Limón,J.A.,and L.Riesgo,2004,“Water Pricing:Analysis of Differential Impacts on Heterogeneous Farmers”,Water Resources Research,40(7):308-322.
20.Graveline,N.,and P.Mérel,2014,“Intensive and Extensive Margin Adjustments to Water Scarcity in France’s Cereal Belt”,European Review of Agricultural Economics,41(5):707-743.
21.Huang,Q.,S.Rozelle,R.Howitt,J.Wang,and J.Huang,2010,“Irrigation Water Demand and Implications for Water Pricing Policy in Rural China”,Environment&Development Economics,15(3):293-319.
22.Mamitimin,Y.,T.Feike,I.Seifert,and R.Doluschitz,2015,“Irrigation in the Tarim Basin,China:Farmers’Response to Changes in Water Pricing Practices”,Environmental Earth Sciences,73(2):559-569.
23.Mérel,P.,L.K.Simon,and F.Yi,2011,“A Fully Calibrated Generalized Constant-elasticity-of-substitution Programming Model of Agricultural Supply”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,93(4):936-948.
24.Mérel,P.,F.Yi,J.Lee,and J.Six,2014,“A Regional Bio-economic Model of Nitrogen Use in Cropping”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,96(1):67-91.
25.Molle,F.,2009,“Water Scarcity,Prices and Quotas:A Review of Evidence on Irrigation Volumetric Pricing”,Irrigation&Drainage Systems,23(1):43-58.
26.Shi,M.,X.Wang,H.Yang,and T.Wang,2014,“Pricing or Quota?A Solution to Water Scarcity in Oasis Regions in China:A Case Study in the Heihe River Basin”,Sustainability,6(11):7601-7620.
27.Varela-Ortega,C.,J.M.Sumpsi,A.Garrido,M.Blanco,and E.Iglesias,1998,“Water Pricing Policies,Public Decision Making and Farmers’Response:Implications for Water Policy”,Agricultural Economics,19(1-2):193-202.
28.Wang,J.,L.Zhang,and J.Huang,2016,“How Could We Realize a Win-win Strategy on Irrigation Price Policy?Evaluation of a Pilot Reform Project in Hebei Province,China”,Journal of Hydrology,539(1):379-391.
29.Wang,J.,J.Huang,and T.Yan,2013,“Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China”,Journal of Integrative Agriculture,12(7):1267-1278.
30.Tsur,Y.,2005,“Economic Aspects of Irrigation Water Pricing”,Canadian Water Resources Journal,30(1):31-46.
31.Yang,H.,X.Zhang,and A.J.B.Zehnder,2003,“Water Scarcity,Pricing Mechanism and Institutional Reform in Northern China Irrigated Agriculture”,Agricultural Water Management,61(2):143-161.
32.Yi,F.,P.Mérel,L.Juhwan,Y.H.Farzin,and J.Six,2015,“Switch Grass in California:Where,and at What Price?”,Global Change Biology Bioenergy,6(6):672-686.
(1)资料来源:《<全国水资源综合规划>概要》,《中国水利》2011年第23期。
(1)资料来源:《百家人大中型水管单位水价调研报告》,https://wenku.baidu.com/view/677c86fcaef8941ea76e057a.htm。
(1)本文以海河流域的333个县级行政区为研究单位。
(2)由于篇幅所限,本文没有给出具体的校准过程,有兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
(1)本研究以2014年为基期,详见第五部分的介绍。
(1)参见Yi et al.(2015)。
(1)下文中所讲的“县”都指的是县级行政区。
(1)国家发展和改革委员会价格司编,中国统计出版社出版。
(1)受篇幅所限,本文没有列出定额管理和按亩收费政策变化对灌溉作物和雨养作物播种面积的影响结果,有兴趣的读者可以向本文作者索要。
(1)受模型所限,本研究假定农产品国际贸易量和库存量在短期内保持不变。
2.郭善民,2004:《灌溉管理制度改革问题研究——以皂河灌区为例》,南京农业大学博士学位论文。
3.李浩,2008:《气候变化对中国水资源的影响及适应性措施初步研究——水政策模型的构建及情景模拟》,中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文。
4.廖永松,2009:《灌溉水价改革对灌溉用水、粮食生产和农民收入的影响分析》,《中国农村经济》第1期。
5.刘莹,2008:《黄河上游水价政策对灌溉用水及农户种植收入的影响》,中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文。
6.刘莹、黄季焜、王金霞,2015:《水价政策对灌溉用水及种植收入的影响》,《经济学(季刊)》第4期。
7.毛春梅,2005:《农业水价改革与节水效果的关系分析》,《中国农村水利水电》第4期。
8.牛坤玉、吴健,2010:《农业灌溉水价对农户用水量影响的经济分析》,《中国人口·资源与环境》第9期。
9.石玉林、卢良恕,2001:《中国农业需水与节水高效农业建设》,北京:中国水利水电出版社。
10.孙天合,2017:《农业水价政策及灌溉用水的经济价值评估:中国北方灌区的实证研究》,中国科学院大学博士学位论文。
11.王克强、李国军、刘红梅,2011:《中国农业水资源政策一般均衡模拟分析》,《管理世界》第9期。
12.严婷婷,2015:《气候变化条件下农业用水优化配置及其对农作物生产的影响:基于北方五大流域的研究》,中国科学院大学博士学位论文。
13.张宗威,2004:《提高农业产业整体利润水平的深层思考》,《科技导报》第2期。
14.赵连阁、王学渊,2006:《水价变化对灌区种植结构的影响——对辽宁丹东东港铁甲灌区的模拟分析》,《农业经济问题》第3期。
15.Bazzani,G.M.,S.D.Pasquale,V.Gallerani,and D.Viaggi,2004,“Irrigated Agriculture in Italy and Water Regulation under the European Union Water Framework Directive”,Water Resources Research,40(7):380-383.
16.Chang,B.,and Y.Liu,2010,“Study on Water Saving Effect of the System of‘Increase Price and Allocate Subsidy’”,China Water Resources,97(2):41-44.
17.Dinar,A.,and J.Mody,2004,“Irrigation Water Management Policies:Allocation and Pricing Principles and Implementation Experience”,Natural Resources Forum,28(2):112-122.
18.Feike,T.,2015,“Multiple Policy Instruments for Sustainable Water Management in Crop Production——A Modeling Study for the Chinese Aksu-Tarim Region”,Ecological Economics,135(1):42-54.
19.Gómez-Limón,J.A.,and L.Riesgo,2004,“Water Pricing:Analysis of Differential Impacts on Heterogeneous Farmers”,Water Resources Research,40(7):308-322.
20.Graveline,N.,and P.Mérel,2014,“Intensive and Extensive Margin Adjustments to Water Scarcity in France’s Cereal Belt”,European Review of Agricultural Economics,41(5):707-743.
21.Huang,Q.,S.Rozelle,R.Howitt,J.Wang,and J.Huang,2010,“Irrigation Water Demand and Implications for Water Pricing Policy in Rural China”,Environment&Development Economics,15(3):293-319.
22.Mamitimin,Y.,T.Feike,I.Seifert,and R.Doluschitz,2015,“Irrigation in the Tarim Basin,China:Farmers’Response to Changes in Water Pricing Practices”,Environmental Earth Sciences,73(2):559-569.
23.Mérel,P.,L.K.Simon,and F.Yi,2011,“A Fully Calibrated Generalized Constant-elasticity-of-substitution Programming Model of Agricultural Supply”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,93(4):936-948.
24.Mérel,P.,F.Yi,J.Lee,and J.Six,2014,“A Regional Bio-economic Model of Nitrogen Use in Cropping”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,96(1):67-91.
25.Molle,F.,2009,“Water Scarcity,Prices and Quotas:A Review of Evidence on Irrigation Volumetric Pricing”,Irrigation&Drainage Systems,23(1):43-58.
26.Shi,M.,X.Wang,H.Yang,and T.Wang,2014,“Pricing or Quota?A Solution to Water Scarcity in Oasis Regions in China:A Case Study in the Heihe River Basin”,Sustainability,6(11):7601-7620.
27.Varela-Ortega,C.,J.M.Sumpsi,A.Garrido,M.Blanco,and E.Iglesias,1998,“Water Pricing Policies,Public Decision Making and Farmers’Response:Implications for Water Policy”,Agricultural Economics,19(1-2):193-202.
28.Wang,J.,L.Zhang,and J.Huang,2016,“How Could We Realize a Win-win Strategy on Irrigation Price Policy?Evaluation of a Pilot Reform Project in Hebei Province,China”,Journal of Hydrology,539(1):379-391.
29.Wang,J.,J.Huang,and T.Yan,2013,“Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China”,Journal of Integrative Agriculture,12(7):1267-1278.
30.Tsur,Y.,2005,“Economic Aspects of Irrigation Water Pricing”,Canadian Water Resources Journal,30(1):31-46.
31.Yang,H.,X.Zhang,and A.J.B.Zehnder,2003,“Water Scarcity,Pricing Mechanism and Institutional Reform in Northern China Irrigated Agriculture”,Agricultural Water Management,61(2):143-161.
32.Yi,F.,P.Mérel,L.Juhwan,Y.H.Farzin,and J.Six,2015,“Switch Grass in California:Where,and at What Price?”,Global Change Biology Bioenergy,6(6):672-686.
(1)资料来源:《<全国水资源综合规划>概要》,《中国水利》2011年第23期。
(1)资料来源:《百家人大中型水管单位水价调研报告》,https://wenku.baidu.com/view/677c86fcaef8941ea76e057a.htm。
(1)本文以海河流域的333个县级行政区为研究单位。
(2)由于篇幅所限,本文没有给出具体的校准过程,有兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
(1)本研究以2014年为基期,详见第五部分的介绍。
(1)参见Yi et al.(2015)。
(1)下文中所讲的“县”都指的是县级行政区。
(1)国家发展和改革委员会价格司编,中国统计出版社出版。
(1)受篇幅所限,本文没有列出定额管理和按亩收费政策变化对灌溉作物和雨养作物播种面积的影响结果,有兴趣的读者可以向本文作者索要。
(1)受模型所限,本研究假定农产品国际贸易量和库存量在短期内保持不变。
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