北洛河流域水沙变化对降雨和土地利用的响应
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摘要
研究流域水沙变化对降雨和土地利用变化的响应机理,对流域土地利用规划决策及水土保持措施优化配置具有重要意义。本文以黄土高原北洛河流域为研究对象,采用Pettitt突变检验、双累积曲线等方法,定量分析了流域近60年降雨、径流和输沙的演变规律及土地利用变化特征,探讨了流域降雨和土地利用变化对流域水沙的影响。结果表明:1960—2016年间,北洛河流域降雨随时间变化总体趋势不显著,而径流量和输沙量随时间变化表现为明显的下降趋势,下降幅度分别为31.4%和83.5%,输沙量减少趋势尤为显著;研究时段内,北洛河流域以林地、草地和耕地为景观基质,耕地、草地向林地转化是基本特征;人类活动影响下的土地利用变化是造成径流泥沙量减少的主要原因,其对径流输沙量减少贡献率分别为76.9%和96.6%,降雨变化影响贡献率分别为23.1%和3.4%。研究结果为深刻认识黄河水沙动态变化提供依据,对未来水土保持措施优化配置提供决策支撑。
In the Loess plateau,analyzing the response mechanism of runoff and sediment yield to precipitation and land-use change plays an important role in the ecological regulation decision-making and the optimal allocation of soil and water conservation measures. Therefore,we choose Beiluohe River basin as the object to quantitatively research precipitation,runoff and sediment change and the characteristics of landuse change in nearly 60 years based on the Pettitt test and double mass analysis,and then to discuss the effect of the precipitation and land use change to runoff and sediment yield. The results showed that:(1)Trends of annual precipitation,runoff and sediment change decreased by the year.(2) Land use structure has greatly changed in recent decades. Major land use types of the Beiluohe River are forestland,grassland and farmland,and the main change was the conservation of grassland and farmland to the forestland(3)The effect of land-use and land-cover change under human activities to runoff and sediment contribution rates was 76.9% and 96.6% respectively,but the precipitation change contributed less. The results provide a basis for the deep understanding of the dynamic changes of the Yellow River's water and sediment,and provide decision support for the future optimization of water and soil conservation measures.
In the Loess plateau,analyzing the response mechanism of runoff and sediment yield to precipitation and land-use change plays an important role in the ecological regulation decision-making and the optimal allocation of soil and water conservation measures. Therefore,we choose Beiluohe River basin as the object to quantitatively research precipitation,runoff and sediment change and the characteristics of landuse change in nearly 60 years based on the Pettitt test and double mass analysis,and then to discuss the effect of the precipitation and land use change to runoff and sediment yield. The results showed that:(1)Trends of annual precipitation,runoff and sediment change decreased by the year.(2) Land use structure has greatly changed in recent decades. Major land use types of the Beiluohe River are forestland,grassland and farmland,and the main change was the conservation of grassland and farmland to the forestland(3)The effect of land-use and land-cover change under human activities to runoff and sediment contribution rates was 76.9% and 96.6% respectively,but the precipitation change contributed less. The results provide a basis for the deep understanding of the dynamic changes of the Yellow River's water and sediment,and provide decision support for the future optimization of water and soil conservation measures.
引文
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[10]王国庆,张建云,贺瑞敏.环境变化对黄河中游汾河径流情势的影响研究[J].水科学进展,2006,17(6):853-858.
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[12]李焯.黄河河口镇-龙门区间年输沙量变化原因分析[J].人民黄河,2008,30(8):41-42.
[13]李春晖,郑小康,杨志峰,等.黄河天然径流量变化趋势及其影响分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(1):80-85.
[14]刘昌明,张学成.黄河干流实际来水量不断减少的成因分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3):323-330.
[15] MIAO C Y,NI J R,BORTHWICK A G L,et al. A preliminary estimate of human and natural contributions to the changes in water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2011,76(3-4):196-205.
[16]吴琳娜,杨胜天,刘晓燕,等. 1976年以来北洛河流域土地利用变化对人类活动程度的响应[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):54-63.
[17] PETTITT A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1979,28(2):126-135.
[18]刘成,王兆印,隋觉义.我国主要入海河流水沙变化分析[J].水利学报,2007,38(12):1444-1452.
[19]王国庆.气候变化对黄河中游水文水资源影响的关键问题研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[2] LIU C,SUI J Y,WANG Z Y. Changes in runoff and sediment yield along the Yellow River during the period from1950 to 2006[J]. Journal of Environmental Informatics,2008,12(2):129-139.
[3]李庆云.黄土丘陵区流域径流泥沙对气候变化和高强度人类活动响应研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2011.
[4]田清.近60年来气候变化和人类活动对黄河、长江、珠江水沙通量影响的研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2016.
[5]冉大川,姚文艺,申震洲,等.黄河头道拐水沙变化多元驱动因子贡献率分析[J].水科学进展,2015,26(6):769-778.
[6] YAO H,SHI C,SHAO W,et al. Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and sediment load of the xiliugou basin in the upper yellow river[J]. Advances in Meteorology,2015,2015(3):1-12.
[7]赫晓慧,郑紫瑞,高亚军.降水和人类活动对北洛河径流变化的定量化研究[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):125-129.
[8]张君茹,岳大鹏,达兴,等.气候变化和人类活动对延河流域泥沙影响的定量分析[J].山东农业科学,2017,49(3):106-112.
[9]郑培龙,李云霞,赵阳,等.黄土高原泾河流域气候和土地利用变化对径流产沙的影响[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(5):20-24.
[10]王国庆,张建云,贺瑞敏.环境变化对黄河中游汾河径流情势的影响研究[J].水科学进展,2006,17(6):853-858.
[11]杨新,延军平,刘宝元.无定河年径流量变化特征及人为驱动力分析[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(6):637-642.
[12]李焯.黄河河口镇-龙门区间年输沙量变化原因分析[J].人民黄河,2008,30(8):41-42.
[13]李春晖,郑小康,杨志峰,等.黄河天然径流量变化趋势及其影响分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(1):80-85.
[14]刘昌明,张学成.黄河干流实际来水量不断减少的成因分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(3):323-330.
[15] MIAO C Y,NI J R,BORTHWICK A G L,et al. A preliminary estimate of human and natural contributions to the changes in water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2011,76(3-4):196-205.
[16]吴琳娜,杨胜天,刘晓燕,等. 1976年以来北洛河流域土地利用变化对人类活动程度的响应[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):54-63.
[17] PETTITT A N. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1979,28(2):126-135.
[18]刘成,王兆印,隋觉义.我国主要入海河流水沙变化分析[J].水利学报,2007,38(12):1444-1452.
[19]王国庆.气候变化对黄河中游水文水资源影响的关键问题研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
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