近30年祁连山南坡降水量变化特征分析
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摘要
祁连山南坡地区作为西北干旱区重要的水源涵养区,其生态地位十分重要,而降水的变化直接关系到祁连山南坡水源涵养量的变化,甚至可以改变祁连山南坡的生态环境。因此,研究祁连山南坡降水量变化特征具有重要的社会和科学意义。利用1986—2015年祁连山南坡祁连、野牛沟、托勒和门源4个气象台站逐月降水量数据,通过降水年内分配特征、年际变化特征、汛期降水量特征和降水量季节变化特征4个方面,对祁连山南坡降水量变化特征进行了综合分析。结果表明:研究区各站近30年平均降水量分别为422.7 mm,434.3 mm,312.7 mm和524.1 mm,祁连气象站、野牛沟气象站和托勒气象站均在1998年出现降水量极大值,与全国降水时间分布规律一致,各站降水量年际变化不大,变差系数为0.14～0.18;研究区降水年内分配极不均匀,10月至次年4月降水量偏少,5—9月降水量较多;汛期降水量与全年降水量具有较大的一致性和良好的线性相关关系,相关系数均大于0.9;研究区内各站降水量主要集中在夏季,但变化趋势不同,其中祁连、野牛沟和托勒气象站降水量为增加趋势,门源气象站降水量为减少趋势。
The southern slope area of Qilianshan Mountains is an important water source conservation area in the arid area of northwest China, and its ecological status is very important. The change of precipitation is directly related to the change of water source conservation in the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains, and can even change the ecological environment of the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains. Therefore, it is of great social and scientific significance to study the variation characteristics of precipitation in the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains. The characteristics of precipitation variation in the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains was analyzed by using the data of monthly precipitation(1986—2015) of four meteorological stations in Qilian, Yeniugou, Tuole and Menyuan. The results showed that, in recent thirty years, the average annual precipitation of the Qilian, Yeniugou, Tuole and Menyuan meteorological station was 422.7 mm, 434.3 mm, 312.7 mm and 524.1 mm, respectively, the precipitation maximal values of Qilian, Yeniugou and Tuole meteorological stations occurred in 1998, which was consistent with the distribution pattern of precipitation time in China. The precipitation of each station had little change each year, and the coefficient of variation ranged from 0.14 to 0.18; the distribution of precipitation in the study area was extremely uneven during these years, and the rainfall was less from October to the next April, but more from May to September. There were not only significant consistency but also good linear relationship between flood season precipitation and yearly precipitation, and all the correlation coefficients were greater than 0.9. The precipitation in each station mainly concentrated in summer, but had different variation trends. The precipitation of Qilian, Yeniugou and Tuole station was increasing but the precipitation of Menyuan was decreasing.
The southern slope area of Qilianshan Mountains is an important water source conservation area in the arid area of northwest China, and its ecological status is very important. The change of precipitation is directly related to the change of water source conservation in the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains, and can even change the ecological environment of the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains. Therefore, it is of great social and scientific significance to study the variation characteristics of precipitation in the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains. The characteristics of precipitation variation in the southern slope of Qilianshan Mountains was analyzed by using the data of monthly precipitation(1986—2015) of four meteorological stations in Qilian, Yeniugou, Tuole and Menyuan. The results showed that, in recent thirty years, the average annual precipitation of the Qilian, Yeniugou, Tuole and Menyuan meteorological station was 422.7 mm, 434.3 mm, 312.7 mm and 524.1 mm, respectively, the precipitation maximal values of Qilian, Yeniugou and Tuole meteorological stations occurred in 1998, which was consistent with the distribution pattern of precipitation time in China. The precipitation of each station had little change each year, and the coefficient of variation ranged from 0.14 to 0.18; the distribution of precipitation in the study area was extremely uneven during these years, and the rainfall was less from October to the next April, but more from May to September. There were not only significant consistency but also good linear relationship between flood season precipitation and yearly precipitation, and all the correlation coefficients were greater than 0.9. The precipitation in each station mainly concentrated in summer, but had different variation trends. The precipitation of Qilian, Yeniugou and Tuole station was increasing but the precipitation of Menyuan was decreasing.
引文
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[23]张小明,魏锋,陆燕.祁连山近45 a年降水异常的气候特征[J].干旱气象,2006,24(3):35-41.
[24]张存杰,郭妮.祁连山区近40年气候变化特征[J].气象,2002,28(12):33-39.
[25]丁永建,叶佰生,周文娟.黑河流域过去40 a来降水时空分布特征[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(1):42-48.
[2]张良,张强,冯建英,等.祁连山地区大气水循环研究(I):空中水汽输送年际变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1079-1091.
[3]孙美平,刘时银,姚晓军,等.近50年来祁连山冰川变化:基于中国第一、二次冰川编目数据[J].地理学报,2015,70(9):1402-1414.
[4]李岩瑛.祁连山地区降水气候特征及其成因分析研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.
[5]田沁花,周秀骥,勾晓华.,等.祁连山中部近500年来降水重建序列分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,2012,42(4):536-544.
[6]王海军,张勃,靳晓华,等.基于GIS的祁连山区气温和降水的时空变化分析[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(6):1196-1202.
[7]张耀宗,张勃,刘艳艳,等.近半个世纪以来祁连山区气温与降水变化的时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(4):127-132.
[8]陈志昆,张书余,雒佳丽,等.祁连山区降水气候特征分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(5):847-853.
[9]马学谦,孙安平.祁连山区降水的大气特征分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(5):1392-1398.
[10]汤萃文,张海风,陈银萍,等.祁连山南坡植被景观格局及其破碎化[J].生态学杂志,2001,28(11):2305-2310.
[11]曹立国.民勤绿洲天然胡杨林生长季土壤水盐动态研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2012.
[12]李英年,赵新全,曹广民,等.海北高寒草甸生态系统定位站气候、植被生产力背景的分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(4):558-567.
[13]张潇戈.祁连山南坡土壤水分空间分布特征研究[D].西宁:青海师范大学,2014.
[14]管珍.三河源区土地利用/土地覆被变化分析及其驱动机制研究[D].西宁:青海师范大学,2011.
[15]贾文雄.近50年来祁连山及河西走廊极端气温的季节变化特征[J].地理科学,2012,32(11):1377-1383.
[16]魏锋,王劲松,李宝梓,等.祁连山近45 a 5—9月日降水气候特征[J].干旱气象,2010,28(3):285-290.
[17]马晓虹,沈伟,祁有福,等.祁连山南麓汛期降水特征分析[J].青海科技,2007(4):23-26.
[18]马淑红,张学文.新疆年降水变差系数的若干规律性[J].气象学报,1991,49(1):39-45.
[19]王薇,陈伏龙,何新林.玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特以上流域近55年降水量变化特性分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(5):163-168.
[20]岳祥飞,张铜会,赵学勇,等.科尔沁沙地降雨特征分析:以奈曼旗为例[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(1):118-123.
[21]IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers[R]. New York: USA:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[22]杨珍.青海省门源盆地水文特征与降雨型滑坡稳定性分析[D].西安:长安大学,2014.
[23]张小明,魏锋,陆燕.祁连山近45 a年降水异常的气候特征[J].干旱气象,2006,24(3):35-41.
[24]张存杰,郭妮.祁连山区近40年气候变化特征[J].气象,2002,28(12):33-39.
[25]丁永建,叶佰生,周文娟.黑河流域过去40 a来降水时空分布特征[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(1):42-48.
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