灰色预测模型在隧道洞顶楔形体稳定性预测中的应用
|
摘要
目前我国在交通方面投建了大量的基础设施,隧道是其中不可避免的工程,特别是在西部地区。在隧道中,洞顶楔形体失稳是施工中存在的危害之一,对楔形体进行监测和预测以保证隧道施工及后期的安全具有重要的意义。通过预测,施工方能及时采取有效措施来消除危险,避免经济损失和人员伤亡。隧道楔形体失稳的影响因素复杂、影响因子难以量化且具有不确定性,符合灰色系统的特性。将灰色系统理论应用于隧道楔形体变形的预测,在原始监测数据的基础上建立隧道楔形体变形的G(1,1)单点预测模型。通过工程实例,验证了该模型的精度。预测模型中,后验差比为C=0.1195,小误差频率为P=1。结果表明,预测模型的精度达到了较高的水平,该预测的结果可以很好地指导实际施工。
With the construction of a large number of transport infrastructure in China,tunnel engineering is inevitable,especially in the western region.In the tunnel,the stability of the roof wedge is one of the harms existing in the construction.It is of great significance to monitor and predict the wedge to ensure the safety of the tunnel construction and the later period.Through prediction,timely and effective measures are taken to eliminate risks and avoid economic losses and casualties.The influence factors of tunnel wedge instability are complex and difficult to quantify and are uncertain,which accords with the characteristics of grey system.This paper applied the grey system theory to the prediction of tunnel wedge deformation,and established the G(1,1) single point prediction model of tunnel wedge deformation based on the original monitoring data.The accuracy of the model was verified by an engineering example.In the prediction model,the posterior error ratio C is 0.119 5 and the frequency of small error P is 1.The results show that the precision of the prediction model reaches a higher level,and the prediction results can guide the actual construction very well.
With the construction of a large number of transport infrastructure in China,tunnel engineering is inevitable,especially in the western region.In the tunnel,the stability of the roof wedge is one of the harms existing in the construction.It is of great significance to monitor and predict the wedge to ensure the safety of the tunnel construction and the later period.Through prediction,timely and effective measures are taken to eliminate risks and avoid economic losses and casualties.The influence factors of tunnel wedge instability are complex and difficult to quantify and are uncertain,which accords with the characteristics of grey system.This paper applied the grey system theory to the prediction of tunnel wedge deformation,and established the G(1,1) single point prediction model of tunnel wedge deformation based on the original monitoring data.The accuracy of the model was verified by an engineering example.In the prediction model,the posterior error ratio C is 0.119 5 and the frequency of small error P is 1.The results show that the precision of the prediction model reaches a higher level,and the prediction results can guide the actual construction very well.
引文
[1] ZHONG L M,XIE Q M,LUO Y.Stability evaluation of tunnel surrounding rock based on game-extension theory[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(1):56-61.(in Chinese)钟里密,谢全敏,罗忆.基于博弈-可拓理论的隧道围岩稳定性评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(1):56-61.
[2] MA S Z,JIA H B,ZHANG Z N,et al.Stability analysis of wedges of rock slopes based on 3D network simulation of structural surface [J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2018,40(S2):167-172.(in Chinese)马淑芝,贾洪彪,张致能,等.基于结构面网络模拟技术的边坡楔形体分析方法研究[J].岩土工程学报,2018,40(S2):167-172.
[3] ANAGNOSTOU G,KOVARI K.Face stability in slurry and EPB shield tunneling[C]//Proceedings of Geo-technical Aspects of Underground Construction in Soft Ground.Balkema[s.n.],1996:35-42.
[4] ANAGNOSTOU G,KOVARI K.Face stability conditions with earth pressure balanced shields[J].Tunnels and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):165-173.
[5] ZAHNG L.Calculation Method and Application for Wedge Rock-Mass in Surrounding Rock of Tunnel Based on the Theory of Sarma[J].Technology of Highway and Transport,2018,34(3):75-79.(in Chinese)张利.基于改进Sarma理论的隧道围岩楔形体稳定性计算方法及应用[J].公路交通技术,2018,34(3):75-79.
[6] TANG H M,ZHOU Y T,CHEN H K,et al.Stability analysis for wedge rockmass of undergroung cavities under dynamic load[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):485-490.(in Chinese)唐红梅,周云涛,陈洪凯,等.动荷载作用下地下洞室楔形体稳定性分析[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(3):485-490.
[7] LIU H D,LUO C B.Forecasting the place and growth depth of instable cuneiform body in tunnel wall rock[J].Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,2007,28(3):81-84.(in Chinese)刘辉东,罗长保.预测隧洞围岩不稳定楔形体的位置及其发育深度[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2007,28(3):81-84.
[8] CHEN Y C.Stability analysis of wedge based on fuzzy set theory[J].HIGHWAY,2018,63(6):12-19.(in Chinese)陈愿成.模糊集理论下的楔形体稳定性分析[J].公路,2018,63(6):12-19.
[9] ZHU F,ZHANG Y X,ZAHNG B.A direct limiting deformation equilibrium method for wedge sliding[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),2003,26(5):103-105.(in Chinese)朱凡,张永兴,张波,等.滑动楔形体的简捷极限变形平衡法[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2003,26(5):103-105.
[10] CHEN W,WANG J X,XIN L P,et al.Lower bound method for plastic limit analysis of wedge shape stability[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2009,31(3):431-436.(in Chinese)陈炜,王均星,辛丽萍,等.楔形体稳定的塑性极限分析下限法[J].岩土工程学报,2009,31(3):431-436.
[11] OU W.Calculation and Analysis of Wedge Stability Considering Seismic Force Based on Hoek Theory[J].Subgrade engineering,2012(3):133-136,140.(in Chinese)欧巍.基于Hoek理论考虑地震力作用的楔形体稳定性计算分析[J].路基工程,2012(3):133-136,140.
[12] TAN X H,SONG C Z,HOU X L.Reliability analysis of wedge slopes[J].Journal of Civil,Architectural&Environmental Engineering,2013,35(S1):90-95.(in Chinese)谭晓慧,宋传中,侯晓亮.楔形体边坡的系统可靠度分析[J].土木建筑与环境工程,2013,35(S1):90-95.
[13] YU Q C,CHEN D J,XUE G F,et al.Preliminary study on ge- neral block method of fractured rock mass[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2005(6):42-48.(in Chinese)于青春,陈德基,薛果夫,等.裂隙岩体一般块体理论初步[J].水文地质工程地质,2005(6):42-48.
[14] ZAHNG X Q,ZHOU J,GE Y,et al.Analysis method of Stability of sliding wedge based on numerical simulation[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2010,27(11):1-7.(in Chinese)张希黔,周敬,葛勇,等.基于数值计算的楔形体稳定性分析方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(11):1-7.
[15] YANG B,LI C D.Improvement analysis method on the stability of wedge rock mass[J].Geotechnical Engineering Technique,2007,21(6):292-295,303.(in Chinese)杨彪,李长冬.改进的楔形岩体稳定性分析方法[J].岩土工程技术,2007,21(6):292-295,303.
[16] TAO L N,YANG J G,CHAI H J,et al.Implementation of wedge modeling system based on vector method [J].Technology of Highway and Transport,2009(2):6-8.(in Chinese)陶丽娜,杨建国,柴贺军,等.基于矢量法的楔形体建模系统的实现[J].公路交通技术,2009(2):6-8.
[17] WANG T,SUN W L,LI L.Study on surrounding rock deformation combined forecasting method based on regression analysis and grey theory[J],Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2017,13(S1):48-51.(in Chinese)王涛,孙文龙,李磊.基于回归分析与灰色理论的围岩变形组合预测[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,13(S1):48-51.
[18] 邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[19] 肖新平,宋中民,李峰.灰技术基础及其应用[M].武汉:科技出版社,2005.
[20] LIU N Z.Prediction and analysis of rock stability of tunnel based on the theory gray[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2007.(in Chinese)刘能铸.基于灰色理论的隧道围岩稳定性预测分析[D].重庆:重庆大学,2007.
[21] 邓聚龙.灰色系统论文集[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1989.
[22] YU T T,ZHOU Y G.The study about time series prediction based on grey theory GM(1,1) model[J].Technique and Me-thod,2012,31(13):65-67.(in Chinese)于婷婷,周玉国.基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的时间序列预测研究[J].微型机与应用,2012,31(13):65-67.
[23] 刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等.灰色系统理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[24] YANG H,LIU Y L,XU H Z.Slope deformation verhulst mo- deling and posterior difference test[J].Value Engineering,2018,37(12):110-112.(in Chinese)杨豪,刘永来,徐瀚周.边坡形变Verhulst建模及后验差检验[J].价值工程,2018,37(12):110-112.
[25] WEI X Y,ZHENG S.Reactor Temperature Control Based on Grey Prediction and Fuzzy Weighted PID[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Technology (Natural Science),2019,32(2):82-86.(in Chinese)魏小宇,郑晟.运用灰色预测与模糊加权PID的反应釜温度控制[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学),2019,33(2):82-86.
[2] MA S Z,JIA H B,ZHANG Z N,et al.Stability analysis of wedges of rock slopes based on 3D network simulation of structural surface [J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2018,40(S2):167-172.(in Chinese)马淑芝,贾洪彪,张致能,等.基于结构面网络模拟技术的边坡楔形体分析方法研究[J].岩土工程学报,2018,40(S2):167-172.
[3] ANAGNOSTOU G,KOVARI K.Face stability in slurry and EPB shield tunneling[C]//Proceedings of Geo-technical Aspects of Underground Construction in Soft Ground.Balkema[s.n.],1996:35-42.
[4] ANAGNOSTOU G,KOVARI K.Face stability conditions with earth pressure balanced shields[J].Tunnels and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):165-173.
[5] ZAHNG L.Calculation Method and Application for Wedge Rock-Mass in Surrounding Rock of Tunnel Based on the Theory of Sarma[J].Technology of Highway and Transport,2018,34(3):75-79.(in Chinese)张利.基于改进Sarma理论的隧道围岩楔形体稳定性计算方法及应用[J].公路交通技术,2018,34(3):75-79.
[6] TANG H M,ZHOU Y T,CHEN H K,et al.Stability analysis for wedge rockmass of undergroung cavities under dynamic load[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):485-490.(in Chinese)唐红梅,周云涛,陈洪凯,等.动荷载作用下地下洞室楔形体稳定性分析[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(3):485-490.
[7] LIU H D,LUO C B.Forecasting the place and growth depth of instable cuneiform body in tunnel wall rock[J].Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,2007,28(3):81-84.(in Chinese)刘辉东,罗长保.预测隧洞围岩不稳定楔形体的位置及其发育深度[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2007,28(3):81-84.
[8] CHEN Y C.Stability analysis of wedge based on fuzzy set theory[J].HIGHWAY,2018,63(6):12-19.(in Chinese)陈愿成.模糊集理论下的楔形体稳定性分析[J].公路,2018,63(6):12-19.
[9] ZHU F,ZHANG Y X,ZAHNG B.A direct limiting deformation equilibrium method for wedge sliding[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),2003,26(5):103-105.(in Chinese)朱凡,张永兴,张波,等.滑动楔形体的简捷极限变形平衡法[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2003,26(5):103-105.
[10] CHEN W,WANG J X,XIN L P,et al.Lower bound method for plastic limit analysis of wedge shape stability[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2009,31(3):431-436.(in Chinese)陈炜,王均星,辛丽萍,等.楔形体稳定的塑性极限分析下限法[J].岩土工程学报,2009,31(3):431-436.
[11] OU W.Calculation and Analysis of Wedge Stability Considering Seismic Force Based on Hoek Theory[J].Subgrade engineering,2012(3):133-136,140.(in Chinese)欧巍.基于Hoek理论考虑地震力作用的楔形体稳定性计算分析[J].路基工程,2012(3):133-136,140.
[12] TAN X H,SONG C Z,HOU X L.Reliability analysis of wedge slopes[J].Journal of Civil,Architectural&Environmental Engineering,2013,35(S1):90-95.(in Chinese)谭晓慧,宋传中,侯晓亮.楔形体边坡的系统可靠度分析[J].土木建筑与环境工程,2013,35(S1):90-95.
[13] YU Q C,CHEN D J,XUE G F,et al.Preliminary study on ge- neral block method of fractured rock mass[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2005(6):42-48.(in Chinese)于青春,陈德基,薛果夫,等.裂隙岩体一般块体理论初步[J].水文地质工程地质,2005(6):42-48.
[14] ZAHNG X Q,ZHOU J,GE Y,et al.Analysis method of Stability of sliding wedge based on numerical simulation[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development,2010,27(11):1-7.(in Chinese)张希黔,周敬,葛勇,等.基于数值计算的楔形体稳定性分析方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(11):1-7.
[15] YANG B,LI C D.Improvement analysis method on the stability of wedge rock mass[J].Geotechnical Engineering Technique,2007,21(6):292-295,303.(in Chinese)杨彪,李长冬.改进的楔形岩体稳定性分析方法[J].岩土工程技术,2007,21(6):292-295,303.
[16] TAO L N,YANG J G,CHAI H J,et al.Implementation of wedge modeling system based on vector method [J].Technology of Highway and Transport,2009(2):6-8.(in Chinese)陶丽娜,杨建国,柴贺军,等.基于矢量法的楔形体建模系统的实现[J].公路交通技术,2009(2):6-8.
[17] WANG T,SUN W L,LI L.Study on surrounding rock deformation combined forecasting method based on regression analysis and grey theory[J],Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2017,13(S1):48-51.(in Chinese)王涛,孙文龙,李磊.基于回归分析与灰色理论的围岩变形组合预测[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,13(S1):48-51.
[18] 邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[19] 肖新平,宋中民,李峰.灰技术基础及其应用[M].武汉:科技出版社,2005.
[20] LIU N Z.Prediction and analysis of rock stability of tunnel based on the theory gray[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2007.(in Chinese)刘能铸.基于灰色理论的隧道围岩稳定性预测分析[D].重庆:重庆大学,2007.
[21] 邓聚龙.灰色系统论文集[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1989.
[22] YU T T,ZHOU Y G.The study about time series prediction based on grey theory GM(1,1) model[J].Technique and Me-thod,2012,31(13):65-67.(in Chinese)于婷婷,周玉国.基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的时间序列预测研究[J].微型机与应用,2012,31(13):65-67.
[23] 刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等.灰色系统理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[24] YANG H,LIU Y L,XU H Z.Slope deformation verhulst mo- deling and posterior difference test[J].Value Engineering,2018,37(12):110-112.(in Chinese)杨豪,刘永来,徐瀚周.边坡形变Verhulst建模及后验差检验[J].价值工程,2018,37(12):110-112.
[25] WEI X Y,ZHENG S.Reactor Temperature Control Based on Grey Prediction and Fuzzy Weighted PID[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Technology (Natural Science),2019,32(2):82-86.(in Chinese)魏小宇,郑晟.运用灰色预测与模糊加权PID的反应釜温度控制[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学),2019,33(2):82-86.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |