标准化地下水指数法分析黑河中游地下水时空演变规律
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摘要
地下水干旱威胁区域社会经济发展和生态环境健康。基于河西走廊黑河流域中游地区1985—2010年23眼井的月地下水位数据,选择4种不同的分布函数构建标准化地下水指数(standardized groundwater index,SGI),采用K-S检验(kolmogorov-smirnov test)和AIC准则(Akaike information criterion)进行分布函数的优选,对K-S检验未通过的井使用非参数法构建SGI,分析地下水时空演变规律。结果表明:1)不同拟合函数对参数化SGI拟合结果有强烈影响。2)研究区的最佳拟合函数为Beta分布(18眼井),其次为广义极值分布(3眼井),另有2眼井未通过K-S检验,使用非参数法构建SGI。3)张掖区SGI指数变化趋势总体上呈先下降后回升趋势(13眼井),临泽和高台区呈持续下降趋势(10眼井)。地下水指数的构建可为地下水资源的监测、管理及预报提供依据。
Groundwater drought severely impacts social economic development and ecological health. In order to manage groundwater resources scientifically, it is essential to establish a groundwater drought index to provide information for monitoring, management, and drought prediction of groundwater resources. In this study, a groundwater drought index was built by using the standardized groundwater index(SGI) method based on 4 kinds of distribution functions which were Gamma distribution, Beta distribution, lognormal(logN) distribution and generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution. The SGI was derivative of standardized precipitation index(SPI). The kolmogorov-smirnov test(K-S test) was used to determine whether the monthly water level data conformed to the theoretical distribution. If all the functions passed the K-S test, the best fitting distribution was selected by Akaike information criterion(AIC). If the only one passed the K-S test, the function was considered the best. Otherwise, non-parametric method had to be used for SGI fitting. The middle reaches of Heihe river basin was selected as a study case and the data was monthly groundwater level data of 23 wells from 1985 to 2010. The spatial and temporal evolutions of groundwater drought were analyzed in study area. The results showed that the SGI calculated by Gamma distribution and by logN distribution was generally inclined to negative values, indicating that the SGI were skewed towards no drought condition; and the SGI calculated by GEV distribution and by Beta distribution was positively skew, which means that the calculated result was skewed towards drought conditions. Therefore, it was necessary to select the optimal fitting function to calculate SGI for evaluation of groundwater drought by using a series of historical data. In the middle reaches of Heihe river basin, the optimal fitting functions were Beta function and GEV function, which accounted for 78% and 13% of the wells, respectively. The non-parametric method was adopted for groundwater data series of the other 2 wells that did not pass the K-S test. On the whole, the SGI calculated based on the optimal function in different part of study area showed 2 different trends. For example, the SGI showed a trend from decline to rising in Zhangye area while a trend of continuous decline in Linze and Gaotai area, which means that the groundwater drought had been alleviated in Linze and Gaotai. As a derivative of SPI index, SGI index has advantages and disadvantages similar to SPI index. However, due to the inherent periodicity of groundwater level sequences, it is necessary to choose optimal fitting functions to calculate SGI. The non-parametric method has been successfully used in the field of hydrology, and it has an advantage to analyze non-stationary sequences in spite of its limitations of overfitting. Further research should focus on the applicability of SGI in other regions considering the local hydrogeological conditions to find out whether there is a correlation between the optimal fitting function and hydrogeological conditions.
Groundwater drought severely impacts social economic development and ecological health. In order to manage groundwater resources scientifically, it is essential to establish a groundwater drought index to provide information for monitoring, management, and drought prediction of groundwater resources. In this study, a groundwater drought index was built by using the standardized groundwater index(SGI) method based on 4 kinds of distribution functions which were Gamma distribution, Beta distribution, lognormal(logN) distribution and generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution. The SGI was derivative of standardized precipitation index(SPI). The kolmogorov-smirnov test(K-S test) was used to determine whether the monthly water level data conformed to the theoretical distribution. If all the functions passed the K-S test, the best fitting distribution was selected by Akaike information criterion(AIC). If the only one passed the K-S test, the function was considered the best. Otherwise, non-parametric method had to be used for SGI fitting. The middle reaches of Heihe river basin was selected as a study case and the data was monthly groundwater level data of 23 wells from 1985 to 2010. The spatial and temporal evolutions of groundwater drought were analyzed in study area. The results showed that the SGI calculated by Gamma distribution and by logN distribution was generally inclined to negative values, indicating that the SGI were skewed towards no drought condition; and the SGI calculated by GEV distribution and by Beta distribution was positively skew, which means that the calculated result was skewed towards drought conditions. Therefore, it was necessary to select the optimal fitting function to calculate SGI for evaluation of groundwater drought by using a series of historical data. In the middle reaches of Heihe river basin, the optimal fitting functions were Beta function and GEV function, which accounted for 78% and 13% of the wells, respectively. The non-parametric method was adopted for groundwater data series of the other 2 wells that did not pass the K-S test. On the whole, the SGI calculated based on the optimal function in different part of study area showed 2 different trends. For example, the SGI showed a trend from decline to rising in Zhangye area while a trend of continuous decline in Linze and Gaotai area, which means that the groundwater drought had been alleviated in Linze and Gaotai. As a derivative of SPI index, SGI index has advantages and disadvantages similar to SPI index. However, due to the inherent periodicity of groundwater level sequences, it is necessary to choose optimal fitting functions to calculate SGI. The non-parametric method has been successfully used in the field of hydrology, and it has an advantage to analyze non-stationary sequences in spite of its limitations of overfitting. Further research should focus on the applicability of SGI in other regions considering the local hydrogeological conditions to find out whether there is a correlation between the optimal fitting function and hydrogeological conditions.
引文
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[2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院.中国抗旱战略研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[3]Glantz M H.Understanding:The drought phenomenon:the role of definitions[J].Water International,1985,10(3):111-120.
[4]周玉良,袁潇晨,周平,等.基于地下水埋深的区域干旱频率分析研究[J].水利学报,2012,39(9):1075-1083.Zhou Yuliang,Yuan Xiaochen,Zhou Ping,et al.Study on frequency analysis of regional drought based on ground water depth[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,39(9):1075-1083.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]翟家齐,蒋桂芹,裴源生,等.基于标准水资源指数(SWRI)的流域水文干旱评估:以海河北系为例[J].水利学报,2015,46(6):687-698.Zhai Jiaqi,Jiang Guiqin,Pei Yuansheng,et al.Hydrological drought assessment in the river basin based on standard water resources index(SWRI):A case study on the Northern Haihe River[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(6):687-698.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]Mishra A K,Singh V P.A review of drought concepts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,391(1):202-216.
[7]Eltahir E A B,Yeh P J F.On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(4):1199-1217.
[8]Peters E,Torfs P J J F,Van Lanen H A J,et al.Propagation of drought through groundwater:A new approach using linear reservoir theory[J].Hydrological Processes,2003,17(15):3023-3040.
[9]Tallaksen L M,Hisdal H,Lanen H A V.Space-time modelling of catchment scale drought characteristics[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,375(3):363-372.
[10]Hughes J D,Petrone K C,Silberstein R P.Drought,groundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwestern Australia[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39:2011GL050797.Doi:10.1029/2011gl050797
[11]Famiglietti J S.The global groundwater crisis[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(11):945-948.
[12]张宗祜,施德鸿,沈照理,等.人类活动影响下华北平原地下水环境的演化与发展[J].地球学报,1997,18(4):337-344.Zhang Zonghu,Shi Dehong,Shen Zhaoli,et al.Evolution and development of groundwater environment in North China Plain under human activities[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,1997,18(4):337-344.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]Konikow L F,Kendy E.Groundwater depletion:A global problem[J].Hydrogeology Journal,2005,13(1):317-320.
[14]徐英,葛洲,王娟,等.基于指示Kriging法的土壤盐渍化与地下水埋深关系研究[J].农业工程学报,2019,35(01):123-130Xu Ying,Ge Zhou,Wang Juan,et al.Study on relationship between soil salinization and groundwater table depth based on indicator Kriging[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2019,35(01):123-130.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]Van Lanen H A J,Peters E.Definition,effects and assessment of groundwater droughts[M]//Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe.Netherlands:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000:49-61.
[16]Peters E,van Lanen H A J,Torfs P,et al.Drought in groundwater-drought distribution and performance indicators[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,306(1/2/3/4):302-317.
[17]Calow R C,Macdonald A M,Nicol A L,et al.Ground water security and drought in Africa:Linking availability,access,and demand[J].Groundwater,2010,48(2):246-256.
[18]MacDonald A M,Calow R C,MacDonald D M J,et al.What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?[J].International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2009,54(4):690-703.
[19]Mendicino G,Senatore A,Versace P.A groundwater resource index(GRI)for drought monitoring and forecasting in a mediterranean climate[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,357(3):282-302.
[20]Li B,Rodell M.Evaluation of a model-based groundwater drought indicator in the conterminous U.S[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:78-88.
[21]Bloomfield J P,Marchant B P.Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2013,17(12):4769-4787.
[22]Thomas B F,Famiglietti J S,Landerer F W,et al.GRACEGroundwater Drought Index:Evaluation of california central valley groundwater drought[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2017,198:384-392.
[23]Jasechko S,Birks S J,Gleeson T,et al.The pronounced seasonality of global groundwater recharge[J].Water Resources Research,2015,50(11):8845-8867.
[24]蒙吉军,汪疆玮,尤南山,等.基于DEA的黑河中游灌区水资源配置效率时空分异[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):173-180.Meng Jijun,Wang Jiangwei,You Nanshan,et al.Spatiotemporal differentiation of water allocation efficiency in oasis irrigated areas in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(1):173-180.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]张更喜,粟晓玲,马心依.黑河中游植被覆盖率变化趋势及其驱动因子分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(3):251-257.Zhang Gengxi,Su Xiaoling,Ma Xinyi.Analysis on the changing trend of vegetation cover rate and its driving factors in middle reaches of Heihe River[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2018,36(3):251-257.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]刘少玉,卢耀如,程旭学,等.黑河中、下游盆地地下水系统与水资源开发的资源环境效应[J].地理与地理信息科学,2002,18(4):90-96.Liu Shaoyu,Lu Yaoru,Cheng Xuxue,et al.Groundwater system and water resources environment effect induced by water resources development in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2002,18(4):90-96.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[27]米丽娜,肖洪浪,朱文婧,等.1985-2013年黑河中游流域地下水位动态变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):461-469.Mi Lina,Xiao Honglang,Zhu Wenjing,et al.Dynamic variation of the groundwater level in the middle reaches of the Heihe River during 1985-2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(2):461-469.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[28]Bloomfield J P,Marchant B P,Bricker S H,et al.Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2015,19(10):5293-5341.
[29]Mckee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C].Proceedings of the 8th Conference of Applied Climatology.Anaheim,CA,USA:American Meteorological Society,1993.
[30]Guttman N B.Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index[J].J Am Water Resour Assoc,1998,34(1):113-121.
[31]吴绍飞,张翔,王俊钗,等.基于站点降雨量最优拟合函数的SPI指数计算[J].干旱区地理:汉文版,2016,39(3):555-564.Wu Shaofei,Zhang Xiang,Wang Junchai,et al.Calculation of the standardardized precipitation Index based on the best fitted distribution functions to the precipitation series[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(3):555-564.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[32]吴喜之,王兆军.非参数统计方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996.
[33]Akaike H.Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle[C].Proceedings of the International Symposium on Information Theory,F,1973.
[34]董洁.非参数统计理论在洪水频率分析中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.Dong Jie.Application and Research on Nonparametric Statistics Theory in Flood Frequency[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2005.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[35]郝丽娜,粟晓玲.黑河干流中游地区适宜绿洲及耕地规模确定[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(10):262-268.Hao Li'na,Su Xiaoling.Determination for suitable scale of oasis and cultivated land in middle reaches of Heihe River basin[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(10):262-268.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院.中国抗旱战略研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[3]Glantz M H.Understanding:The drought phenomenon:the role of definitions[J].Water International,1985,10(3):111-120.
[4]周玉良,袁潇晨,周平,等.基于地下水埋深的区域干旱频率分析研究[J].水利学报,2012,39(9):1075-1083.Zhou Yuliang,Yuan Xiaochen,Zhou Ping,et al.Study on frequency analysis of regional drought based on ground water depth[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,39(9):1075-1083.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]翟家齐,蒋桂芹,裴源生,等.基于标准水资源指数(SWRI)的流域水文干旱评估:以海河北系为例[J].水利学报,2015,46(6):687-698.Zhai Jiaqi,Jiang Guiqin,Pei Yuansheng,et al.Hydrological drought assessment in the river basin based on standard water resources index(SWRI):A case study on the Northern Haihe River[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(6):687-698.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]Mishra A K,Singh V P.A review of drought concepts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,391(1):202-216.
[7]Eltahir E A B,Yeh P J F.On the asymmetric response of aquifer water level to floods and droughts in Illinois[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(4):1199-1217.
[8]Peters E,Torfs P J J F,Van Lanen H A J,et al.Propagation of drought through groundwater:A new approach using linear reservoir theory[J].Hydrological Processes,2003,17(15):3023-3040.
[9]Tallaksen L M,Hisdal H,Lanen H A V.Space-time modelling of catchment scale drought characteristics[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,375(3):363-372.
[10]Hughes J D,Petrone K C,Silberstein R P.Drought,groundwater storage and stream flow decline in southwestern Australia[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2012,39:2011GL050797.Doi:10.1029/2011gl050797
[11]Famiglietti J S.The global groundwater crisis[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(11):945-948.
[12]张宗祜,施德鸿,沈照理,等.人类活动影响下华北平原地下水环境的演化与发展[J].地球学报,1997,18(4):337-344.Zhang Zonghu,Shi Dehong,Shen Zhaoli,et al.Evolution and development of groundwater environment in North China Plain under human activities[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,1997,18(4):337-344.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]Konikow L F,Kendy E.Groundwater depletion:A global problem[J].Hydrogeology Journal,2005,13(1):317-320.
[14]徐英,葛洲,王娟,等.基于指示Kriging法的土壤盐渍化与地下水埋深关系研究[J].农业工程学报,2019,35(01):123-130Xu Ying,Ge Zhou,Wang Juan,et al.Study on relationship between soil salinization and groundwater table depth based on indicator Kriging[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2019,35(01):123-130.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]Van Lanen H A J,Peters E.Definition,effects and assessment of groundwater droughts[M]//Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe.Netherlands:Kluwer Academic Publishers,2000:49-61.
[16]Peters E,van Lanen H A J,Torfs P,et al.Drought in groundwater-drought distribution and performance indicators[J].Journal of Hydrology,2005,306(1/2/3/4):302-317.
[17]Calow R C,Macdonald A M,Nicol A L,et al.Ground water security and drought in Africa:Linking availability,access,and demand[J].Groundwater,2010,48(2):246-256.
[18]MacDonald A M,Calow R C,MacDonald D M J,et al.What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?[J].International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2009,54(4):690-703.
[19]Mendicino G,Senatore A,Versace P.A groundwater resource index(GRI)for drought monitoring and forecasting in a mediterranean climate[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,357(3):282-302.
[20]Li B,Rodell M.Evaluation of a model-based groundwater drought indicator in the conterminous U.S[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,526:78-88.
[21]Bloomfield J P,Marchant B P.Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2013,17(12):4769-4787.
[22]Thomas B F,Famiglietti J S,Landerer F W,et al.GRACEGroundwater Drought Index:Evaluation of california central valley groundwater drought[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2017,198:384-392.
[23]Jasechko S,Birks S J,Gleeson T,et al.The pronounced seasonality of global groundwater recharge[J].Water Resources Research,2015,50(11):8845-8867.
[24]蒙吉军,汪疆玮,尤南山,等.基于DEA的黑河中游灌区水资源配置效率时空分异[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):173-180.Meng Jijun,Wang Jiangwei,You Nanshan,et al.Spatiotemporal differentiation of water allocation efficiency in oasis irrigated areas in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(1):173-180.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]张更喜,粟晓玲,马心依.黑河中游植被覆盖率变化趋势及其驱动因子分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(3):251-257.Zhang Gengxi,Su Xiaoling,Ma Xinyi.Analysis on the changing trend of vegetation cover rate and its driving factors in middle reaches of Heihe River[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2018,36(3):251-257.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]刘少玉,卢耀如,程旭学,等.黑河中、下游盆地地下水系统与水资源开发的资源环境效应[J].地理与地理信息科学,2002,18(4):90-96.Liu Shaoyu,Lu Yaoru,Cheng Xuxue,et al.Groundwater system and water resources environment effect induced by water resources development in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2002,18(4):90-96.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[27]米丽娜,肖洪浪,朱文婧,等.1985-2013年黑河中游流域地下水位动态变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):461-469.Mi Lina,Xiao Honglang,Zhu Wenjing,et al.Dynamic variation of the groundwater level in the middle reaches of the Heihe River during 1985-2013[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(2):461-469.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[28]Bloomfield J P,Marchant B P,Bricker S H,et al.Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification[J].Hydrology&Earth System Sciences,2015,19(10):5293-5341.
[29]Mckee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C].Proceedings of the 8th Conference of Applied Climatology.Anaheim,CA,USA:American Meteorological Society,1993.
[30]Guttman N B.Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index[J].J Am Water Resour Assoc,1998,34(1):113-121.
[31]吴绍飞,张翔,王俊钗,等.基于站点降雨量最优拟合函数的SPI指数计算[J].干旱区地理:汉文版,2016,39(3):555-564.Wu Shaofei,Zhang Xiang,Wang Junchai,et al.Calculation of the standardardized precipitation Index based on the best fitted distribution functions to the precipitation series[J].Arid Land Geography,2016,39(3):555-564.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[32]吴喜之,王兆军.非参数统计方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1996.
[33]Akaike H.Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle[C].Proceedings of the International Symposium on Information Theory,F,1973.
[34]董洁.非参数统计理论在洪水频率分析中的应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.Dong Jie.Application and Research on Nonparametric Statistics Theory in Flood Frequency[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2005.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[35]郝丽娜,粟晓玲.黑河干流中游地区适宜绿洲及耕地规模确定[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(10):262-268.Hao Li'na,Su Xiaoling.Determination for suitable scale of oasis and cultivated land in middle reaches of Heihe River basin[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(10):262-268.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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